Our 2015 economic growth forecasts positive—despite Aquino’s crimes

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WE must thank God that despite the corruption and incompetence of the Aquino administration, most experts local and international still see our country posting high GDP growth rates in 2015.

Just before Christmas Day, a Moody’s Investors Service analysis of the Philippine economy was released. It says that domestic growth is being hamstrung by the Aquino administration’s weak use of its budget.  This veritably endorses our critical viewpoint that the Aquino administration is both incompetent and corrupt. Incompetence prevented officials from making use of the huge funds they have to keep projects running and jobless people employed. It is also corruption because the high officials who should have pushed for faster and more government spending, officials including President Aquino himself, precisely withheld the use of taxpayers’ money in 2014 so that they could use it to bankroll the 2016 election campaign in favor of the presidential, senatorial and congressional candidates of the ruling Aquino-Mar Roxas-Liberal Party.

But Moody’s still says the Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth will be high–by 6.5 percent in 2015. This is high compared to those of the other Asean countries.

Moody’s says the government’s real GDP growth target of 7 percent to 8 percent for 2015 will be difficult to achieve if budget releases and use are not improved.

Other economists, like the Barcelona-based FocusEconomics panelists, see growth but slightly lower—6.2%—in 2015
Compared to us, our “twin economy” fellow Asean co-founder, Thailand, is forecast to suffer a decline.

Here is the forecast for Thailand written earlier in December by the US Council on Foreign Relations’ Joshua Kurlantzick, the CFR senior fellow for Southeast Asia, who writes most of the Asia Unbound articles.
“Thailand’s 2015 growth rate will fall below 4 percent
“The World Bank currently predicts that Thailand will grow by 4.5 percent in 2015, year-on-year. Even this rate of growth would be among the slowest in Southeast Asia—the Bank predicts the Philippines will grow by nearly 7 percent, Indonesia will grow by 5.6 percent, and Vietnam will grow by 5.5 percent. But I am doubtful that Thailand will even reach 4 percent growth for 2015. Continuing political uncertainty will weigh heavily on Thai consumers, seriously depressing domestic consumer spending. In addition, political uncertainty—and the high-profile international coverage of several recent murders of foreign tourists in Thailand—will hurt tourism badly. Tourism revenues account for between six and seven percent of Thailand’s total annual GDP.

Finally, Japanese companies, the most important investors in Thailand, will continue to slowly move some of their investments to Vietnam and other countries in the region, worried about Thailand’s political instability and the long-term competitiveness of Thai labor.”

We hope Thailand emerges in much better shape soon and the military regime there decides to restore democracy.

And we pray that President Aquino soon realizes that he and his key associates have committed many crimes against our nation, our Republic and our people—and that he should gracefully resign.

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7 Comments

  1. Since 10% of the population are OFWs, this segment should be tracked seperately from the GDP. No other country is like ours with so many OFWs. No other country has even 1% of its population as OFWs. With the OFW sector removed from the GDP our growth is less than 3% and below all our Asian neighbors. Think about it should Overseas work be included in Domestic product?

    • Agree. Gross Domestic Product is defined as the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period, though GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis. OFW work is outside country’s border.
      Government should look into our trade with other countries such as China due to imbalance trade where the later has trade surplus.

  2. Thailand economy is better because it’s policies are always geared toward helping their agri sector and the local industries, while the Philippines economy is still and as usual dependent on the dollar remittances of our OFWs while our agri sector and local industry are left unattended by our selfish politicians. Take the case of our Congress, whose present occupants are willing partners of the executive in the looting of taxpayers money. Where would the the big bulk of lump sums in our 2015 budget would end up if not in the pockets of those politicians.

  3. Why is the Philippine economy making gains despite the corruption and bad governance of the Aquino administration? 1) Our 10 million-strong overseas workers (OFWs) remit about $26 billion annually, and this money generates vigorous consumer spending which in turn creates millions of job, low-paying that they may be. This is the reason why SM and other malls in the country are full, despite our country being perceived as one of the poorest in Asia. 2) Foreign investors now see the Philippines as the place to be because our pay rate of P500 or less a day is now the lowest in the Asia. So despite the traffic jams in Metro Manila and corruption in the Aquino’s government, investors are still coming. But the low wage in the country is condemning our workers to a life of poverty.

    It’s not the inept BS Aquino to thank for the surge in our economy – the credit should go to our heroic OFWs and our manufacturing sector workers who serve as magnets to foreign investors because they are now the lowest-paid workers in Asia.

    • I would not totally agree on bad governance but I agree on corruption. It’s true that PH economy improved largely due to increase remittances from OFW and the increase exports of electronic goods, etc. We need to look at our infrastructures to attract more investments and development of rural areas. We need to improve our agriculture to reduce import of rice. There is no immediate solution on poverty due to lack of education of many Filipinos and lack of focus in improving their lives. Most of these unfortunate Filipinos are coming from provinces to find better jobs but ended up living in squatter areas. The government can alleviate their flights if there job creating industries in their provinces.

  4. Roldan Guerrero on

    Aquino will not resign since there is too much to loot in the 2015 1.7 Trillion Budget. We must once and for all bring kick out this monster in Malacanang physically to stop his crimes.

    • Not agree. The constitution is clear that the term of the President is 6 years. Looting was there before Aquino, during Arroyo, Estrada, Ramos, Cory and even during the time of Marcos. It’s encouraging to know that the people who are involved in corruption are now being charged.