A ‘legal coup’ is possible. But it would lead to EDSA 4

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LAWYER Harry Roque has a very legitimate fear. That Mr. Aquino and his legal posse are setting the ground for a “legal coup” which involves the following:

• Jailing Mr. Binay on corruption charges

• Disqualifying Grace Poe on citizenship grounds

Then, the last job, this time to be handled by Mr. Aquino’s press flacks, is to demonize Senator Santiago and question her fitness (physical and in the others) to be president. Meanwhile, the window for the meandering Digong Duterte to run for president via the PDP-Laban nomination would have shuttered for good.


Accomplished, the three operations will set the stage for the coronation of Mr. Roxas, the anointed, who despite all the nonstop positive plays from the mainstream media, is struggling to get traction as a presidential candidate. With the winnowing job done, he will be competing against a bunch of non-entities, an easy path to victory. At least, that is the expected outcome of the “legal coup” and the demolition job on Senator Santiago.

But would that exactly lead to the coronation of the uncompetitive Mr. Roxas? Or, is it misplaced optimism? Before we come to that, let us first raise the reasons behind the fear of Mr. Roque.

The LP anointed, Mr. Roxas, has been in politics for so long that voters have more or less a firm view of him. He can be senator but can’t win in a competitive presidential race. The reason Mr. Roxas gave way to Mr. Aquino in 2010 was more on the grounds of non-electability than magnanimity of character. The underfunded Mr. Estrada, fresh from jail, would have won the 2010 election without doubt, had the LP opted for Mr. Roxas and not the incumbent president. Mr. Roxas is Mr. Aquino’s choice as successor. Even within his circles, there are great doubts on the anointed’s ability to win in a fair election.
When people see Mr. Roxas, they can see through him, a heartless and cold technocrat who would demolish what is left of the welfare state. There is a voting base that would elect him to the Senate of 12 choices but not enough to win an ultra-competitive presidential contest. He tries to pretend that he understands the aggrieved but his straight talk on the income tax reduction proposal, the plight of the Yolanda victims and his tanim-bala reaction (personal responsibility that is straight out of Mitt Romney) are classic quips on technocratic cruelty.

With four major candidates in contention (Roxas, Binay, Poe and Santiago), the best case scenario for Roxas is getting 24 percent of the votes just like the voting percentage of Mr. Ramos in 1992, just enough for a small margin. But the polling “bumps” expected from his positive media, the presidential endorsement and his day job as caretaker of the republic have not materialized and Mr. Aquino and his Palace aides are worried sick.

They have, at this point, silently acknowledged the uninspiring run of Mr. Roxas and they have to adjust to the grim circumstances. How? By staging a “ legal coup” as defined by Mr. Roque.

The problems inherently built in a “ legal coup” are two and the two would be both ugly to the No-Ro (Aquino – Roxas) Bros. Okay, you can say that No-Ro also means No to Roxas.

A legal coup and a demolition job on Senator Santiago may very well backfire. With Mr. Binay in jail and with Ms. Poe disqualified, they can be both bomb-throwers out of the presidential race but potent anti-Roxas campaigners. They can rally their supporters behind Senator Santiago, whose feisty campaigning style and lethal political polemics are enough to drown out the timid “daang matuwid” iterations of Mr. Roxas in the presidential debates.

Mr. Roxas can’t debate Senator Santiago. With her vast intellect, her predisposition to quote the classics, her supreme belief that nobody in the country is her intellectual equal, Senator Santiago would find the task of dismissing Mr. Roxas in debates as easy as swatting flies.

With the supporters of the disqualified Poe and Binay at her back, Senator Santiago will easily beat Mr. Roxas.

The second scenario is more terrifying – a possible EDSA 4.

Filipinos may be timid and passive on their politics but there is one thing they loath and there is an apt Tagalog term for it – panlalamang.

A jailed Mr. Binay and a disqualified Ms. Poe will not be acceptable. It may lead to a mass protest at EDSA. Religious and civic groups disgruntled with the Aquino government may join in. What about forces from the Right and the Left?

That would be a scary scenario and the chaos that it would turn out would set back the country – politically and economically – for 50 years.

A “ legal coup” is indeed tempting as Mr. Roque has said.

But if there is any sliver of temperance and sobriety left in the Aquino circles, the better option is this: Don’t.

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39 Comments

  1. EDSA 4 is very very very very very far from reality, no peoples power will ever prosper unless it is supported by BIG businessmen, remember that BIG businesses benefited much during this administration

  2. I totally disagree of the perceived legal coup on the basis of Harry Roque’s analysis and fear, even in the future the two scenarios would happened, the jailing of VP Binay for possible conviction of his many corruption charges, and the other scenario for the eventual disqualification of Grace Poe Llamanzares. If they were both convicted on their own respective charges, so be it. The public as voters should and be aware of the characters and quality of works, whether they have been practicing honesty and acting in their good conscience for public good and welfare in their activities both in public and private life, as they were vying for the highest position of our government, and the knowledge of these are very essential measure to gauge ones qualification worthy of our votes for President of the Philippines. Anything less than that, only crazy people or unreasonable people would go for coup as Harry Roque has very poor basis.

    • That’s your opinion. Harry Roque’s scenario is very realistic. Candidate Roxas just has no way of winning, he has so many negatives that will work against him.

    • I disagree with Harry’s point of view. I don’t think the government especially Mar Roxas is stupid enough to get involve in any demonizing or clandestine work to disqualify the other candidates. This is the perception of Harry Roque and does not have strong basis.

  3. ang writer at si roque ay mga matatanda na. mga opinion at pag-iisip nila ay palpak. magbago na kayo sa tingin nyu ba magbabago pa ang pilipinas?

  4. No to daang patuwad-tuwad the oligarchs .they are not pro poor .no to roxas and robredo in 2016 election .we need GRACE POE OUR NEXT PRESIDENT IN 2016 .

    • Fool and gullible mind, Lamon Lamon, baka pulutin pa siya sa kangkongan (jail) si Grace Poe sa salang pag palsipika ng mga documento. Ganun ba ang iboboto natin, maraming problemang nakasampa sa kanya, or possessing questionable character and activities, para ilagay nating pangulo ng Pilipinas? Wala siyang chance para pagtiwalaan ng voters, wala, zero.

  5. Leni robredo is showing her true color. dumb as she can be. A lot of people like her in the past .Once she started running as vice of the daang baco-baco ay naging trapo to the max. akala mo may dating siya ay wala naman. sa latest radio mindanao surveys ay pang 5 lang second to the last.KULELAT KAPARIS NG KATANDEM NIYA NA SI ROXAS. Kaya tigilan na Ni robredo ang paglalait kay grace poe wala siya sa kalingkingan Ni grace poe. ang kanyang asawa na mabuting tao ay wala na at siya ay hindi naman kilala ng buong bansa .fake leni .
    Mabuhay ka grace poe!

    • For once you need to be open minded and study the PH law. You are making assumptions and false theory about Leni and others. It’s disgusting to see your comments.. such as “daang baco-baco, kulelat, I don’t think your addressing the issue and evaluating your candidate’s performance and issues. Do you really think Poe will support you and the rest of your fans. The answer is NO. She will support those who supported her from the big businesses especially in the movie industry. Grow up!

  6. Maghunos dila kayo .Look your self at the mirror before pointing fingers
    to others. baka ikaw ang may kulangot sa mukha.nagsalita na ang mga
    mapang-alipustang .akala mo dakila pero palamunin din pala ng mga ofws.
    Sus me kaparis ka ni Robredo na akala mo ay dakilang tao pero panglabas
    lang ,nasa DIBDIB niya ay selos kay Grace Poe dahil grace is well love by
    many people. She came from well known and good family .eh si robredo
    ngayon ko lang mga nakilala ang pangalan .Na sobrahan naman ang TAAS
    kanyang ihi .akala sa sarili ay ka -level niya si GRACE POE .ang
    magulang ni leni ay unknown sa mga pilipino.kaya leni stop you bull shit
    .
    we love you GRACE POE .we will continue to support and will vote for you in 2016 election.

  7. Pilipinos are like Latinos. They target relatives of the political opponents. Aquino should not underestimate the anger of some people who have interest on next year election. Aquino should send his sisters abroad next year, they might be targets of assasinations to get to Benigno Aquino III.

  8. All our candidates for presidency are farce, unqualified because of questionable issues like corruption, citizenship and health problem. Any one of them aren’t the right individuals, so let us just hope and pray for a messiah like President Mojico of Paraguay who give his soul and body, (a dilapidated house, his car a beetle) so much so he is dubbed as the world’s poorest president. He give his entire or a part of his salary 90% to his people. He got a big big heart. We could call it a very great sacrifice on his part. As Filipinos we don’t have that kind of bravery and toughness. i wish we have that kind of a character of a president, we would have become one of the luckiest nation in the world. Cheers to President Mojico of Paraguay.

  9. This yellow administration has another card to play, that is the HOCUS PCOS. Abnoy won through HOCUS PCOS remember?

  10. Why are these people too scared of Miriam? Bar Exam is not an accurate measurement of IQ if you want to measure intelligence. Only in the Philippines is topping the board or bar exam is given too much importance. Hilary Clinton flunked in the Washinton DC bar exam in her first attempt. She laughed heartily in American press when she narrated it. Same is true with Michelle Obama she failed in the Illinois bar in her first attempt. John F. Kennedy, Jr. failed in the New York bar in his first attempt, Justice Benjamin Cardozo, famous US Supreme Court justice failed in the bar five times, Kathleen Sullivan, Dean of Standford Las School failed in the CA bar in her first attempt and many more brilliant luminaries who graduated from topnotch universities in America have history of failure in taking the bar. The argument ascribe to Enrile is nonsense. Look at Enrile he went to jail because of plunder and if not of his old age and diseases he will languish in jail. What kind of lawyer are you if you go to jail for committing a criminal act such as plunder? Is that a gauge of brilliance in legalism? Look at Marcos he is perceived and claimed as the most illustrious and brilliant lawyer what did he do this country? If he did not die he could have landed in jail either in America or here. Please before you write your ideas or open your mouth to speak do justice to yourself think deeper and study carefully what you say or you sound like a dumb and grossly ignorant of what you are saying.

    • You need a re-thinking of your premises or assumptions. You are correlating accurate IQ measurement with positions attained by an individual.This is wrong and completely illogical! Do you really believe that the the high positions attained by the USA politicians and other luminaries you mentioned (who failed their Bar exams) can be used as an accurate gauge of their IQ? In which planet have you been living? IQ measurement has nothing to do with high station or standing. Using your US examples, are you aware that Hilary Clinton attained whatever position she has achieved because of her husband former US president Bill Clinton? A direct association with Bill Clinton is priceless. Her current fame and status are a result of this association and have nothing to do with her IQ.

      As for JFK Jr, whatever high standing he accomplished during his lifetime came about because he was a “Kennedy” – a famous family dynasty tantamount to the Royal Family in the UK.. Nothing to do with his IQ.

      Similarly, Michelle Obama’s past and present position cannot be used as an accurate measurement of her IQ. She is black, and “affirmative action” is mainly responsible for whatever she achieved. Whatever she attained after graduation from Princeton and Harvard came about through her family’s political connections in her native Chicago.

      Benjamin Cardozo got appointed to the US Supreme Court because of his political affiliation.The same with Kathleen Sullivan. These are positions for which one must run like a candidate. How do you think the present members of the US Supreme Court got appointed? Politics, not IQ, is the main consideration. You cannot use these politically-motivated positions to accurately measure IQ. It would be unscientific, inappropriate and unacceptable.

      If you want to know whether it was indeed Senator J.P. Enrile who made the remark about Senator M. Defensor Santiago’s IQ (a well-deserved “put-down” because Santiago is forever mouthing off about her so-called “intelligence and high IQ), all you have to do is use ‘google”. Don’t you know that “Google is your friend”?

      Sorry, but morality has nothing to do with IQ. How you can conflate the two is beyond me. Better research “IQ”, and “morality”. You might learn something new. You sound so uneducated, unread, and illiterate. Did you take English lessons in school?.

      By the way, no one is scared of Miriam. By what logic did you arrive at that conclusion? Bring on “Brenda”!

    • Meriam Santiago did not top her BAR exam…She barely made it to the passing mark. But she graduated top of her class . . Suma Cum Laude (I think)
      She doesn’t hide about her BAR rating. She reasoned that she fell in love during the BAR exam and cannot concentrate.

  11. If voting changed anything…it would be abolished…what ever happens this poor country will still be run by CROOKS. For the benefit of CROOKS.

  12. george paralolo on

    the country is much better with Pnoy, what’s wrong with Roxas as President? Roxas had experince, education and accomplishment more than Pnoy, to run the country. His only shortcoming, lack of skill sucking up with the losers called masa. will you trust this country to Binay, the basketball team of thieves, Poe with FPJ’s “zero legacy” or Mirriam the certified buang and the GongGong Marcos lurking behind?

    • You are entitled to your own opinion. No one stopping is you for your choice. Medyo masama tubo ng dila mo sa bandang huli. To tell you, this is what I think of Roxas. He’s not his own man. Oligarko at elitista din siya. Now about the health conditions of Roxas the first este ni AbNoy pala and Miriam: Miriam made public her cancer. Abnoy is more seriously sick than her kasi his sakit is sa UTAK meaning sa cancer, tigok ka agad on a certain period of time. Ung me sakit sa UTAK walang nakakaalam kung kailan bibigay dahil yan ang mga mas mahahaba ng buhay. Some parting words: me myself don’t want to entrust my country to a person who always rely on somebody a person who is Uto-uto, laging walang alam, laging pinapaikutan ni Abnoy (kunwari at palusot lng mga ito), umaarteng me alam sa buhay mahirap at iba pa. Sige iboto mo siya….

  13. Kale Alaskador on

    Another “people power” will not be effective. What we need is a bloody revolution to cleanse the government.

    But maybe the Armed Forces will stage its own coup and set up a military government.

    Kawawa naman an Pilipinas.

    • wake-up……, as i read your comment, i can say that your an intelligent person, but sad to say that you put your brain in your ass…

    • I don’t like a “bloody revolution”

      But I also don’t like the way Mr. Rey have commented. Maybe Mr. Rey have no idea how the Aquinos handled the protests?

      Mr. Kale is correct on the premise that there’s no effective legal or peaceful means to remove Aquino (and minions) in power

      On a “legal” side, Aquino will just rig the election so Mar can win

      On peaceful rally/revolution, Aquino will just rain those bullets, just like what Cory did. Same with GMA on failed EDSA3.

      Peaceful revolution only worked with Marcos and Erap because these leaders are not as evil as Aquino (and GMA, when she was still BFF with Cory)

      So, even if we hate it, only the “bloody revolution” was the remaining choice if we want change and true liberty.

      …or another choice like Mr. Rey, to just succumb and rot with this kind of government.

  14. Leodegardo Pruna on

    The administration cannot jail Binay with allegations alone. He must be found guilty. What administration is doing now is a demolition job and that is to muzzle in garbage through its minions in the senate and its alter-egos as much on Binay and frame the peoples mind on such. But the Filipino people are not stupid as P-Noy and his cohorts do. The Filipino people would not succumb to such maneuvers. And, the Filipino people should not be fooled into allowing the hocus-PCOS machine damage whatever credibility the Filipinos have left in them in the world. God bless the Philippines.

  15. Don’t worry. There will not be a “legal coup”. As appropriate and required, the Philippine Constitution or the rule of law will be applied to VP J Binay’s alleged plunder and corruption, and to Mrs. Grace Poe Llamanzares’ questionable citizenship and residency issues.

    The Binay and Llamanzares camps may hope, but there will be no Edsa IV for a perceived thief like VP Binay, nor for a perceived liar and fraudulent candidate like Mrs. Llamanzares. Times have changed, and with the widespread use of modern technology and social media, even the low-information voters are becoming more politically aware and literate. Only the “bobotantes for hire” may show up for any demonstration that may take place. These days the going rate for showing up seems to be five pesos plus “pancit”, “noodles”, or “sardinas”. If someone is poor, hungry and needs a free meal, it is understandable that “bodies for hire” may show up. But don’t count on a huge mass demonstration as was the case in previous EDSAs.

    As for Senator M. Defensor Santiago, she was defeated as a presidential candidate once before, and I predict will be rejected again in 2016. For someone whom the article above describes as having a “vast intellect”, it should be noted that according to Senator J. P. Enrile she barely passed her Bar examinations and only had an average of 76% (she got a 56% in Ethics, which is the easiest subject in the exam) She is what they call in Tagalog as “mabunganga”, which passes for fluency and eloquence to her fans. She may provide some fireworks during the debates, but in the end, she will lose in her presidential aspirations once again. Apart from her lung cancer problem which may recur, many voters know her as “Brenda”.

    Finally, there is no point in giving any credence to Atty H. Roque’s “fear” of a “legal coup”. In an earlier interview, he stated that this legal coup is based on “rumblings” in the legal community – in other words, based on “tsismis” and “washroom gossip”. He made known his “fear” during the interview just for one basic reason: his desire for press and publicity. Remember, he is running as a “Kabayan” party list representative. He is a defender of the Binays, and had planned to run as a senatorial candidate under VP Binay’s UNA. He must have realized that VP Binay is in more serious trouble than previously thought, and so decided to abandon a sinking ship. That he succeeded in getting the wished-for publicity is evidenced by Mr. Ronquillo’s column above. Whatever Atty. Roque says must be taken with a grain of salt because it is based on self-interest.

    • You are day dreaming ! You are very good in making stories. Please do not make any hallucinations with the credentials of Senator Meriam Defensor Santiago. Parang si Abnoy ka at magaling mag imbento ng storya.

      Senator Meriam Defensor Santiago w/ Senator BB Marcos will win for President & Vice President respectively for 2016 National Elections……PERIOD……

    • You are totally correct but not for the Binay “bobotantes”. Up to this time, not a single word in defense was made by the Binays in regards to the findings of the independent AMLC about the hundreds of millions or billions that the Binays deposited in Canada.

  16. This legal scenario is feasible and realistic given the mindset of current administration. Pnoy will always place his personal interest always above any other interest!

  17. Harry Roque is another opportunist political doom and gloom prognosticator trying to sell himself as a crusader for justice but whose end is to get himself elected senator. This guy is a hustler doing his rounds on talk shows trying to get the attention of political bigwigs and interested power brokers.

    • No Jim. You are dead wrong. A lot of us are voting for Binay. Do not be a sore loser in case…..

  18. Mr. Roque is taking a lot of ridiculous assumptions and scenarios. These are causing fear to him and few people. Even if these are true, the Filipinos understand the issue better than Mr. Roque himself. The issue on Binay, Poe and Miriam are all very clear to me. Can’t the opposition, nominate one that do not have issues on health, corruption and citizenship? Escudero can run for President, so is Honasan and Bongbong. But why will they run for VP instead? Your guessed is good as mind. Stay tune.