From the moment I heard the news about the recent earthquakes in Southern Japan and in Ecuador, I cannot help reminding everyone what will happen to Metro Manila if a 7.2-magnitude earthquake occurs today. Ecuador was rocked by a 7.8-magnitude earthquake and, Japan, with a 7.3. The death toll in Ecuador is currently around 400 and counting, in Japan around 41. But what is more worrisome, based on the JICA study done in 2004, is that the death toll for Metro Manila would be around 30,000 from the earthquake and around 20,000 from the ensuing fire. It is a far cry from Ecuador and Japan. Since publishing the study, what have we done to prepare for a powerful earthquake? Are we ready for it?

When an earthquake devastated Haiti in 2010, Anna Coren of CNN interviewed me on the possible impact of an earthquake with a similar magnitude should it happen in Metro Manila. It was only then that I came across a study done by the Japan International Cooperation Agency in 2004 on “Earthquake Impact Reduction for Metropolitan Manila,” also known as the MMEIRS study. It assessed and quantified the impact and damage that the earthquake will cause. With the West Valley fault approaching its active phases, according to PHIVOLCS, it would be important to look back at the MMEIRS study for guidance.

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