STRATFOR

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Forecast • Challenges to President Rodrigo Duterte’s hold on power, whether in the form of an impeachment or a coup, are unlikely to gain momentum while he remains broadly popular. • But China’s unrelenting attempts to extend its maritime boundaries will complicate its detente with the Philippines and undermine Duterte’s…

ANALYSIS

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FORECAST Even if Jakarta Gov. Basuki Tjahaja Purnama is re-elected in a Feb. 15 vote, he could still face prison time on blasphemy charges. If the vote goes into a runoff, the political crisis Purnama’s arrest and trial have created will drag out into April. Should Purnama lose his office,…

STRATFOR ANALYSIS

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Deployments of nuclear-capable missiles always send a message, but it isn’t always immediately clear who the target is. Chinese media reported Tuesday on the possible deployment of long-range Dongfeng-41 intercontinental ballistic missiles in northeastern China close to Russia, triggering speculation in Russian media about China’s intent. One possibility that has…

STRATFOR ANALYSIS

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Nearly 8,000 people have been killed in the Philippines since President Rodrigo Duterte declared open season on the country’s drug pushers and users last summer. Until this week, Duterte appeared immune to pressure to rein in the extrajudicial killings unleashed by his policies. But two things have forced “the Punisher”…

STRATFOR GEOPOLITICAL DIARY

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BY MATTHEW BEY The divide between domestic politics and geopolitics can be a hard one to bridge. Partisan politics and pageantry can get in the way of a country’s underlying geopolitical imperatives, driving policies that undermine or contradict them outright. The tension between national and international politics is on full…

STRATFOR ANALYSIS

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On his first business day in office, US President Donald Trump used his pen to drive the final nail into the coffin of his predecessor’s ambitions to build the mega-regional Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Trump signed an executive order withdrawing the country from the TPP on Monday, effectively killing the deal…

STRATFOR GEOPOLITICS ANALYSIS

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BY IAN MORRIS Fifty years ago, the British poet Philip Larkin saw that the world was shifting under his feet. As he described it in his 1967 composition Annus Mirabilis, Sexual intercourse began In nineteen sixty-three (which was rather late for me)— Between the end of the Chatterley ban And…

STRATFOR ANALYSIS

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US President Donald Trump’s first week in office has been a whirlwind of executive action on a number of different policy fronts. Countries around the globe are keeping a particularly close eye on the new leader’s positions on trade after Trump threatened to impose tariffs against several states. For instance,…

STRATFOR ANALYSIS

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Deployments of nuclear-capable missiles always send a message, but it isn’t always immediately clear who the target is. Chinese media reported Tuesday on the possible deployment of long-range Dongfeng-41 intercontinental ballistic missiles in northeastern China close to Russia, triggering speculation in Russian media about China’s intent. One possibility that has…

STRATFOR ANALYSIS

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Despite being sidelined by the United States and Afghanistan in secret negotiations with the Taliban, Pakistan eventually will be included in any formal talks on ending the Afghan war. In response to the United States’ efforts to exclude Pakistan, Islamabad will court the support of Russia and China in its…

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