When boxing analysts sound like promoters

Conrad M. Cariño

Conrad M. Cariño

(Second of two parts)

It is very challenging to dish out predictions on high-profiled boxing matches because there are many factors in the sport that can affect the outcome of a bout. But for a mismatch, even a monkey or a dog can make an accurate prediction.

Just look at the case of the Chris Algieri-Manny Pacquiao fight, where 30 ring experts polled by The Ring online predicted a win for the Filipino. And Algieri proved to be gift opponent.

It was a different case though for the Nonito Donaire-Nicholas Walters fight, where 13 of the 22 experts polled by The Ring online predicted a win by the Filipino. I also thought Donaire had a chance against Walters. Well, despite the gallant effort by Donaire, Walters proved to be a freakish specimen and won by stoppage. That’s another “loss” in my unofficial fight prediction record.

Fortunately, The Ring online posts the “records” of the boxing experts it polls, with Joseph Santoliquito boasting of a 15-0 record making him “undefeated.” Santoliquito saw Pacquiao beating Algieri. But Santoliquito sees Pacquiao losing to Floyd Mayweather Jr. if the two clash.

“Five years ago, it’s a fight. But somewhere from then until now, PacMan has aged and put far more corrosion on his body than the unhittable Mayweather, who faced the best 154-pounder in the world in [Canelo] Alvarez and won every second of every round. The Pacquiao apologists, and there are many still fixated on PacMan circa 2008, will cry and whine trying to convince the unwashed that this isn’t true,” Santoliquito, a feature writer of The Ring online, said in the article “Mayweather Would Crush Pacquiao” posted at the website of CBS Philly on November 26, 2013.

Well, I hope every boxing analyst was like Santoliquito—willing to go against the tide at times if only to inform boxing fans, especially the new boxing fans who only started watching boxing because of Pacquiao.

And here I go again—how many boxing analysts would dare say that a showdown between Pacquiao and Mayweather doesn’t make sense anymore?

I am one of them.

My basis is I can never forget how the Mike Tyson-Michael Spinks fight ended in disappointing fashion with the “good guy” Spinks losing in just one round. Even Muhammad Ali believed Spinks could beat Tyson.

And Pacquiao-Mayweather won’t beat the thunder of the first Thomas Hearns-Sugar Ray Leonard fight, or the Hearns-Marvin Hagler bout, simply because all of them met when they were in their prime, and the match-ups were still even between the fighters. So why bother with Pacquiao-Mayweather?

I’m not saying that Mayweather will knock out Pacquiao – not a chance. But it is hard to overlook how Mayweather beat twice by decision Marcos Maidana and how me took to school a bull strong Alvarez.

Pacquiao knocking down Algieri six times looks impressive, but I doubt it if the lanky American would last six rounds with either Maidana or Alvarez. Get my point?

As this column is published, it would be two years and a few days when Pacquiao was knocked out by Juan Manuel Marquez in Las Vegas.

If I had a boxing column at that time, I would have called Pacquiao-Marquez 4 “very dangerous” for the Filipino, and would even say Pacquiao will lose. That was actually one “win” in my “unofficial” prediction record.

In the end boxing fans want to be entertained by high-profiled fights but they are not the ones who take the blows in the ring, get bloodied or knocked out. And the most emotional boxing fans usually cry for blood or a knockout. I am still among them, sometimes.

But how many boxers who stretched themselves too far ended up with brain-related diseases, were disabled or even killed, or their legacy damaged or denigrated, just because boxing analysts and fans wanted to see a “good fight.”

And I wonder if boxing analysts who are clamoring for Pacquiao-Mayweather have seen how the American shackled Alvarez, or realize how dangerous Maidana really is.

Do you think boxing analysts should have their “prediction records” published so fans can separate the grain from the chaff?

If it pushes through, the Pacquiao-Mayweather fight can serve as a venue to find out who deserves to be really called boxing analysts. Well, I won’t change my prediction for that fight. I even don’t want to see it happen, anymore.


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  1. Well done, you have written this article with a lot of intelligent thought. A lot of filipinos wont like you for it though. I agree with all you say. A lot of filipinos say marques got in a lucky punch & that manny was reckless in going in for the kill. They dont realise thats how manny fights. Manny has exellent footwork & he likes to jump ( lunge ) in & out. Marquez timed his lunge & hit him with a perfect punch. Its what fighters train for & marques is a brilliant counter puncher. Floyd is a better counter puncher & now after seeing manny get ko’d like that his chin will now always be susceptible & its just possible floyd could also catch him coming in & that doubles the power & could see manny ko’d. I think it unlikely but its a possibility. I also think that is the reason we have seen manny avoid all the top welterweights, for 3 1/2 & will soon be 4 years. Some will say he beat tim bradley whio is a top welterweight, & i say how do we know how good he is at welterweight as he also other than manny has only fought light welterweights since he started fighting at welterweight & his next opponent is only rated 30. He should be fighting top guys not guys rated 30. A lot of filipinos on boxingnews24 think maidana is a b class fighter & manny will beat him easily, well it could end in ko either way if they fought but i dont for 1 second think bob arum will allow manny in the ring with marcos as he knows the dangers of manny losing.
    Manny v algieri was a mismatch & i said it from day one i also said as soon as i saw mikey garcia had moved up to light welterweight skipping lightweight, that i think he will be mannys next opponent. Lets see if im right.
    I also said i think floyd might fight cotto next for his 160lb title, but im not sure if that is wishful thinking or what.

  2. victor m. hernandez on

    Yes, even Marquez says Floyd will beat Manny by points, Flowyd is a master in defense, dodging, and f l i g h t, and, when opportunity comes, in offense. He knows well not to put in front of you as punching bag any time you wish to hit it.