Remittance growth likely eased in November, HSBC said ahead of the release of official data, adding that the full-year result will still be positive given a yearend rally.
“We expect remittances to grow 4.7 percent year-on-year in November, which is a deceleration from the previous month’s reading,” the banking giant said in a forecast.
The estimate is a sharp moderation from the 8.4 percent cash remittance growth recorded in October.
“This is partly driven by base effects, as remittances were unusually high in November 2016,” HSBC added.
Official November data is scheduled to be released today by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas.
Cash remittances posted 18.5-percent growth in November last year.
December could see a spike, the banking giant said, despite remittance growth for the year so far coming in below the pace seen in 2016.
“We expect 2017’s average remittance growth to at least match 2016’s pace (5.4 percent average per month), which calls for higher remittances at the end of the year,” it added.
Cash remittances — money sent home by migrant workers via banks — totaled $23.05 billion as of the first 10 months of the year, up 4.2 percent.