Cautious ahead of Duterte trip, China Q3 GDP


Trading on the Philippine stock market is expected to be cautious this week ahead of China’s third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data and President Rodrigo Duterte’s visit to that country this week.

Luis Limlingan, managing director at Regina Capital Development Corp., sees heavy selling pressure near or at the resistance point of 7,500 points on the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi).

“The first two trading days are crucial for this week’s trade as PSEi looks to maintain its hold above the 200-day moving average. However, the main hurdle is the index’s high-volatility environment,” Limlingan said.

“This leads us to take a very cautious approach in trading this week by only picking out issues that are showing signs of stability — both on price and technical signals — above their support bases. Issues that show recovery but trading in a downtrend with technical momentum are those we should be avoiding this week as they gather the most corrective volatility,” he added.

Online brokerage firm 2TradeAsia.com said investors will be in a cautious mood as they await China’s third quarter GDP numbers and President Duterte’s visit to China from October 18 to 21.

“Notwithstanding the fact that China’s weakness has been on the back of investors’ minds, the market has still been rattled by its weak trade performance result. This week, China third quarter GDP is set to be released, with consensus at 6.7 percent, maintaining its growth from the past two quarters,” 2TradeAsia.com said.

“If China managed to maintain or beat this pace, any concerns over faltering of economic growth could ease and boost global financial markets. Furthermore, the advent of earnings season is adding to concerns,” it added.

The online brokerage firm also said President Duterte’s state visit to China is “something to look forward to” and “could provide a breath of fresh air for the economy.”

“Around 400 businessmen will join the entourage, looking to close deals and build stronger business relations with the world’s second largest economy. The trip would land promising business opportunities given the closer economic ties between the Philippines and China under the current administration,” it said.

For its part, BPI Asset Management said the PSEi is expected to move “sideways with a downward bias, should the results of the US initial jobless claims be stronger than expected and the possibility of a rate hike improves.”

On Friday, the main PSE index advanced 1.05 percent or 77.12 points to 7,389.30, while the wider All Shares index rose 0.76 percent or 33.09 points to 4,402.69.


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