China and Filipinos share a common menace

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Consumed by President B. S. Aquino 3rd’s various moves to preserve his fast-fading grip on political power, we now stand on the brink of a possible war against China. We are being made to believe it is something we should welcome, because we would be fighting with American and Japanese troops, ships, planes, missiles and guns.

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In the Pacific war, we stood shoulder to shoulder with the Americans against the Japanese. Only Aquino’s grandfather and his band of collaborators had the rare distinction of working for the Japanese while our patriots died with the Americans. Now under the leadership of the collaborator’s grandson, we would finally be fighting on the same side as the Japanese and the Americans.

What are the real chances of war with China? Where and how is it likely to begin? What are our chances of surviving? How can we avert it, if we still can?

Last Saturday, at Annabel’s restaurant in Quezon City, we asked some of these questions. To answer them we had China analyst Chito Sta. Romana, UP Prof. Temy Rivera and Jose Antono Custodio, a military historian. We had broadcaster-columnist Herman Tiu Laurel to help us keep them on their toes.

The prospects of war
There is not a single view on the prospects of such a war. War is war, big or small, and even the most benign view of it brings comfort to no one.

Despite the efforts of various groups to create the unwanted conditions for war, Sta. Romana says China herself does not believe war is likely to erupt between herself and the US—at least not in the next five years.

That’s a narrow gap of less than one presidential term. PNoy would still be a young 60-year-old by then, either in prison or in a home, but no longer in a position to order any reinforcement unit to stand down. But,in Sta. Romana’s view, a “short, sharp conflict” triggered by accident or miscalculation by either side could not be discounted.

Rivera and Custodio did not depart from the same view. Rivera believes a multi-track approach to the Philippine-Chinese maritime territorial dispute could keep diplomacy going, while Custodio sees the economic interests of the US and China too deeply intertwined to provide a clear argument for war. He also sees no military parity between the two rivals. The US has nine to 10 aircraft carriers, three of them in the Asia Pacific region, China has only one. Of the world’s total inventory of 15,000 nuclear warheads, the US owns 7,000, while China owns only 2,000. Russia owns 5,000.

China not likely to start it
Despite the childish taunts and heckling China gets from PNoy, she is not likely to be provoked into shooting down a US-supplied coast guard cutter or a Japan-supplied P3-C Orion maritime surveillance plane to start a war. The first incident could compel the US to intervene under the 1951 Philippine-US Mutual Defense Treaty, while the second could put to the test Shinzo Abe’s commitment to come to the aid of the Philippines.

This makes the chances of China starting a shooting war rather slim. PNoy himself might stand a greater chance of starting one, given the chance to repeat his Operation Exodus Mamasapano experience with the help of a suspended AFP Chief of Staff.

Can it start in Europe?
Still a much darker view from abroad tends to suggest that war is already in the making, and may no longer be averted. It could start in Europe and all it would take is one simple push of a button to spread it to China at the speed of light.

Russia must pay for annexing the Crimea, and must be made to feel that she cannot continue to function as though the global sanctions were a joke. And China must not be encouraged to dream about her mandate from Heaven.

At the June 7-8 G7 Summit in Elmau, Germany, where Moscow was once again locked out, US President Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel led the verbal assault on Russian President Vladimir Putin, raising the verbal hostility to a new level. This disturbed the more sober political and military leaders on both sides of the Atlantic.

Anti-war voices in US and Europe
Last Friday, US Army Chief of Staff General Raymond Odierno signed an agreement with Chinese Army General Fan Changlong, vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, at the Pentagon, “establishing an army-to-army dialogue mechanism to better coordinate humanitarian assistance and disaster response practices.”

In Washington, D.C., Gen. Vincent Brooks, US Army Pacific Commander, said, “We do not see a collision between the People’s Liberation Army and the US Army at the present time. We should be building our relationship while we can, to promote miscalculation and misunderstanding.”

US Defense Secretary Ash Carter told General Fan that he would like to forge with China a framework on the rules of behavior for the safety or air and maritime encounters by September.

In Germany, former Chancellors Helmut Schmidt and Gerhard Schroder and Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier have joined hands to oppose Merkel’s rabid attack on Putin.

Dangerous moves
Meantime, the US and Russia have accused each other of violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. No details have been released. The INF Treaty obliges parties “not to possess, produce, or flight-test a ground-launched cruise missile (GLCM) with a range capability of 500 km. to 5,500 km., or to possess or produce launchers of such missiles.” The installation on land of vertical launchers similar to the system used to launch Tomahawk missiles from US Navy ships, even without missiles, violates the INF Treaty.

Carter announced the US would deploy cruise missiles in Europe to target military installations inside Russia. At its summit meeting in Wales last September, NATO agreed to expand its NATO Response Force (NRF) to include all its military exercises in the Baltic Sea, Norway, Poland, and Netherlands. This brings NATO’s power projection in Europe to a considerably higher ground.

Air incidents
So far, Russia’s reaction to all these has been staid. But a number of recent air incidents suggest that more and larger incidents could occur when least expected. On May 30, according to CNN, a Russian jet fighter, flying at high speed, came within 10 feet of a US Air Force reconnaissance plane in international airspace over the Black Sea. The jet fighter flew alongside the US plane at the same altitude, broke off, and then shadowed the plane before leaving the area. It was unarmed, the report said.

Earlier, a US RC-135 U flying a routine route in international airspace was intercepted by a Russian SU-27 Flanker, according to reports. The Flanker was similarly unarmed, but it approached the US plane “in an unsafe and unprofessional manner,” the reports said.

Earlier this month, the US Navy released a video of a Russian SU-24 aircraft flying past the right side of the guided missile destroyer USS Ross in the Black Sea.

Because of the sheer number of NATO and Russian aircraft flying over the Black Sea, the chances are high of routine interaction between them. So are the chances of a serious incident occurring, with tragic consequences. The steps being taken by the US military to avoid miscalculations could be genuinely helpful in broadening mutual trust and confidence.

Are Obama and Merkel in all this?
But Obama’s critics see him and his closest NATO allies as the real threats to world peace. They see him and Merkel as the primary engine of the campaign to start a war with Russia that could automatically draw in China, once the missiles start flying.

In America, this thesis is championed by the 93-year-old Lyndon LaRouche of Leesburg, Virginia, a Quaker educated in the classics, who has run for president in each of the US presidential elections from 1976 to 2004, and foresaw the trans-Atlantic economic collapse long before it came. He suggests that at the behest of London, Obama is pushing for a thermonuclear war that could prove terminal.

The main objective, in his view, is the “depopulation” of the planet. This is consistent with the statement famously attributed to Prince Philip, that upon his death he would like to be reincarnated as a virus in order to shrink the population to less than a billion people.

Killing mankind 200 times over
With 15,000 nuclear warheads in the stockpile, the world has a total nuclear firepower capable of killing all of mankind 20 times over. Military sources say that each of the nine Ohio-class nuclear submarines underneath Philippine and adjunct waters carries 24 Trident missiles, each armed with six nuclear warheads, and at least 200 times stronger than the US atomic bombs that fell on Hiroshima and Nagasaki during the war.

In Lyndon LaRouche’s view, Obama and Merkel are the primary promoters of a terminal war. So while we rage against Aquino’s effort to dismember the country for the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, and cheer his temporary inability to railroad the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law according to his announced timetable, the instruments of Western propaganda try to drown us in rhetoric about the inevitability and imminence of war. Aquino has become a major instrument of that propaganda.

The blessings of EDCA
Thanks to his Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement with the US, US nuclear warships, aircraft carriers, and nuclear submarines are free to come and go in Philippine waters, without regard to the Constitution, which requires that EDCA should first receive the concurrence of the Senate, and which adopts and pursues a “policy of freedom from nuclear weapons in Philippine territory, consistent with the national interest.”

These weapons of war, we are told, are a deterrent against any armed attack from China. But China assures us that only the US government and its puppet, the Aquino government, not the Filipinos, are her real adversaries.

No dialogue
China wants to talk with, not wage war on us Filipinos. Aquino alone does not want to talk. Why is he mortally afraid?

To talk to China is not to make China his master in place of the US. It is simply to allow a free exchange on our respective self-interests. In the face of this intense rivalry between China and the US, we have to make them see that we are friends to both, and that we have our own self-interests to defend and protect rather than theirs. It is only by talking that we can communicate this.

A wise friend assures me that Aquino will not want talk to China just as he will not want to talk or listen to us Filipinos. In this respect, our people and China share a common menace: the false pretender to the office of head of state.

fstatad@gmail.com

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21 Comments

  1. I wasn’t aware that tatad is a chinese kak saker. Definitely a disciples of Lyndon LaRouche. One quick searh for this other guy and you will not find any good words.

  2. ted penaflor on

    Come on! Mr. Tatad. The enemy is obvious – it’s China. As to PNoy it’s providential we have a president like him had it been another much less like you China would have grabbed everything including hundred islands!

  3. ted penaflor on

    Come on! Mr. Tatad. The enemy is obvious – it’s China. As to PNoy it’s providential we have a president like him had it been another much less like you China would have grabbed everything including you pesteng yawa ka!

  4. This author is full of garbage. Seems he has sold out any sense of patriotism. Cannot even finish reading it. Wanna puke.

  5. Tatad, you have the wrong story regarding the Crimea situation! Crimea merely went back to Russia (a country it was part of until 1954 for centuries, when Khruschev, the ethnic Ukrainian leader of the then USSR gifted it to Ukraine against the will of the people there). And looking back, it was inevitable as it has always been the wish of Crimeans to be under Russian rule!

    It just so happened it took a coup by a Western-backed, Russophobic neo-Nazi regime that was likely going to kick Russia out of their Sevastopol base in order to gift it to NATO (a virtual NO NO for Russian national security interests, which is tantamount to China or Russia putting a base in British Columbia or Baja California) that prompted Russia to take action there using troops stationed in there by agreement with the previous Ukrainian government! However the move proved popular among locals and most people who visited there after the “annexation” have noted that a vast majority are happy they were “annexed” by Russia!

  6. The world is already at war! The war is not being fought with guns, missiles, rockets, tanks,ships, planes or any weapon with explosive destructive power. The war is being fought with money. To support that large population, China has to keep on expanding its economy but I do not believe they can. Read the book titled ” The Art of War” and you may be able to understand the way they think. The Nazis used blitzkrieg to conquer Europe.The Chinese are using the opposite method – it is a slow and methodical process.
    If you look at the globe, China is surrounded by U.S. military bases that are within striking distance of vital Chinese cities. When push comes to shove, they will lose! Or should I say, humanity will lose.

  7. What BS Aquino recent pronouncements against China on WPSea is nothing but another political fraud in order to conceal his deficiency in character, inefficient leadership, worthless political legacy and his corrupt administration’s dereliction of its duty to advance the economic state of our nation and modernization of our national security and military defense. Aquino is the most stupid leader the Filipino nation ever had with his father Ninoy and mother Cory’s dropping of our Sabah claim, Noynoy Aquino 3rd neglect of WPSea and massive corruption in his administration.

  8. salvador Arab on

    KTatad is a under chinas payroll.. we don’t want war but his guy want us to talk to China while at the same time china is getting our territory.. better MR. Ktatad for you to go to china and stay there. your an unpatriotic words mean nothing to those who believe that we are being bullied in our own backyard. while it true that talking to china will not make china Aquino’s master but they china should stop their reclamation activities as they are destroying natural habitat..

  9. Kit fully knows well that the only solution for tsaynah to back off is for Ms. Imelda to be sent as The Intermediary to talk with the higher echelons or The Elders in that land. In lieu of Ms. Imelda, Bonget can substitute for her. Unfortunately, simyon would never want that glory to be bestowed on the Marcoses out of sheer envy. It would only show that simyon never enjoys respect from our neighbors and allies and reveal that simyon is just a patsy with nothing to show or prove.

  10. No body wins in any war.
    Every body looses.

    The greates asset that any one/companey/country can have is trust.

  11. Vic PenetranteVic on

    The WORLD share a common menace.
    After having spent time and money, do you believe China will relinquish her claim on the West Philippine Sea? There is no dialogue because it is hard to talk with a bully.

  12. No childish if talking about a war. Leadership is a tool of commando. Unlikely Pnoy ever since no planned to war due to his weakness.

  13. Conado maramag on

    Thanks for this expository article. Our enemy are our friends, who believe we overly populated and our leader of sort.

  14. PresiNoynoy not wanting to talk one-on-one with China is like him being a 17-year old girl. Who does not want to be alone with an old man…. The old man has violated the girl so it makes sense (to me, maybe not to the Old Man) that the girl is afraid to be alone one-on-one with the old man. The old man has pushed aside and stolen from the girl. The girl is afraid. The old man has Scarborough that belongs to the girl.

  15. Ngayon lang ninyo na laman na ginagamit ng US si Aquino! Si Aquino ang taong uto-uto at sunudsunuran,ito yata ang dugoilan ng dumadaloy sa katawan ng mga aquino, sa ginawang pangugulo ng US sa pilipinas,ang nangyari sa SAF 44 at ang BBL,sila ang may-akda nito,upang hindi maistorbo ang edca,at mga base na itinatayo nila sa pilipinas!waterlily type military base!!ilan taon na lang,baka ang pilipinas ang unang bansa na manuclear,dahil sa base ng US!

  16. Mario Escobido on

    this guy is a marcos loyalist, china sycophant, senseless opposition-ist, and communism advocate
    what more do you need to realize that his words don’t carry any weight?