China will lose war over islands – analysts


MILITARY and geopolitical experts dismissed Chinese state media’s warnings of war over the South China Sea following US Secretary of State-designate Rex Tillerson’s statement that China should be barred from reclaimed islands.

Experts said China’s military and economic reach, as well international alliances, were not enough to sustain a war.

Antonio Santos, former undersecretary for defense affairs, said China only had one aircraft carrier in service and it would take a while to complete its arms buildup in the disputed waters.

“And in fact, they are just putting that to flight for propaganda purposes. They still do not know how to operate an aircraft carrier,” Santos claimed.

The US, in comparison, has 10 aircraft carriers in service and one in reserve, he said.

“As an intelligence officer, you don’t come up with a conclusion based on the intent. We look at capabilities,” he said.

Former national security adviser Roilo Golez said China’s alliances were no match with that of the US.

“If you’re talking about the top 20 powers of the world, practically, all of them, except of the one county in the Indian Ocean, are friends of the USA. China’s only friend is that one country in the Indian Ocean and the other country is North Korea,” the former lawmaker said.

“From the economic point of view, the top six economies – the US, China, Japan, Germany, Great Britain and India – China is alone in the top six. All the rest are with the United States.”

Conflict will also take a toll on the Chinese economy, which remains smaller than that of the US, Santos said.

“The ability to sustain a war, that’s the important thing. You can start a war, but can you sustain it? Sustaining a war is based on the economy. If China loses the exportation, they will die,” Santos said.

Earlier this month, Tillerson told US lawmakers during his confirmation hearing in Washington that China must be denied access to reefs in the South China Sea that it had irreversibly destroyed.

China’s influential English-language newspapers issued strongly worded editorials against the plan.
“Unless Washington plans to wage a large-scale war in the South China Sea, any other approaches to prevent Chinese access to the islands will be foolish,” the Global Times said.

China Daily took a similar line, saying: “It would set a course for devastating confrontation between China and the US. After all, how can the US deny China access to its own territories without inviting the latter’s legitimate, defensive responses?”


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  1. Victor N. Corpus on

    It is true that China has only one aircraft carrier battle group; while the US has ten and its major ally, UK, has an additional three. But the revolution in military affairs (RMA) has rendered aircraft carrier battle groups obsolete. China’s “assassin’s mace” weapons such as the DF21D medium range ballistic missile with a range of 1,500 kms and the DF26C intermediate range ballistic missile with a range of 4,000 kms are both designed to hitting moving targets at sea. These are the first anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) in the world and China is the only country who possess at the moment. Fired to their targets in barrages with maneuvering warheads that have no fixed trajectories, these missiles are practically impervious to any anti-missile defenses.

    Variants of these missiles have been successfully tested as direct-ascent missiles to destroy adversary satellites used for C4ISTAR. And if such missiles can hit targets travelling at more that 5 times the speed of sound, what more hitting stationary targets such as US air bases from Iwakuni in Japan (where US F-35Bs stealth fighters are kept) and the rest of the 400 US bases and its allies surrounding China all the way to Guam. China’s “assassin’s mace” can reach them all. Even if China’s lone aircraft carrier does not leave its port; China can destroy all aircraft carrier battle groups of the US or any of its allies within 4,000 kilometers from Chinese shore – if they will dare touch any of those disputed islands.

    As to alliances, China has the Shanghai Cooperation Organization that encompass more than half of humanity.

  2. One tends not to take seriously a pinoy’s take on global military matters, so why is this even in the news?

  3. China is the next big problem for the world as it it looking for world dominance and control as it believes it owns everything which is rubbish however look at its actions in the south chins sea it is claiming islands thousands of miles from its homeland of smaller nations who cannot defend themselves from the might of china,,
    It has been said that world war three would be started by either china or Russia and at the moment yoou could roll the dice on either or both together!!
    Look out world they are coming

  4. One factor that China should factor in if it engages in war is its more than a billion population. Its the most populous country on earth. Good if other countries e.g. US, Japan, do not counter strike. But if they do, one guided missile, nuclear or conventional, going through and impacting on densely populated provinces e.g. Guangzhou or its capital Beijing, would result to catastrophic casualties. Will China be prepared for such eventuality for engaging in an irresponsible war?

  5. Just you wait, tsaina! Soon, the Philippines will just retake those Philippine territories that you have illegally acquired.

  6. antonio santos, wala ka palang alam sa geopolitics of today, makaluma parin ang iyong mga datos. magbasa ka at manaliksik, mabuti pa basahin mo ang mga artikulo at post ni gen victor corpuz para magkaroon ka ng kaunti kaalaman sa tunay na sitwasyon. mas marami pang alam sa iyo ang mga bata aktibista,

    • you’re ed this guy don’t even know what he’s talking about, TSAINA in comparison is not even close, these are a bunch of crap so to speak, i don’t think any country in this planet can match the US militarily, you guys all talk, pls get the right information or you’re probably left out, good luck to you!

  7. If there will be a war between U.S. and China it will be with nuclear weapons. First the world economy will go down. Quadrillions or even Quantillion will immediately disappear. The one percenter will loose their wealth. Regionalism will be the only one that will save the economy. And China will not go to war with the United States whatever Trump want it to happen. There is a group of people behind the scene that decide. That group is above the Congress President and Supreme Court. The U.S. is not idiot to let a crazy people like Trump and his minions who called themselves “patriots” to take over the country.

  8. Just what President Trump said, “the old regime is all talk and no action, my administration is all action”. So China bring it on!