Optimism among Filipino households moderated in the third quarter, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported on Friday, with sentiment weighed down by factors such as price fears and the country’s peace and order situation.
Based on the BSP’s latest Consumer Expectations Survey (CES), the confidence index for the current period fell to 10.2 percent from the second quarter’s record high of 13.1 percent.
“Despite the decline in the CI, consumer confidence remained high, registering the second highest reading since the start of the nationwide survey in Q1 2007. The lower but positive CI indicates that the number of optimists declined but continued to outnumber the pessimists,” the central bank said in a statement.
It said the less favorable outlook was due to anticipated higher commodity prices that could lead to higher household expenditures, peace and order problems particularly the ongoing crisis in Marawi City, low or no increase in income, and an expected increase in the number of unemployed.
“Respondents also cited other concerns on occurrence of calamities during the third quarter and poor health,” the BSP said.
Sentiment for the following quarter, however, improved with the CI rising to 17.8 percent from 13.6 percent in the previous survey.
The respondents’ more optimistic outlook for the next quarter stemmed from expectations of additional income and salary increases, improvement in peace and order, and the availability of more jobs.
The CI measures the average direction of shifts in three indicators: household income, household finances and overall economic condition. A positive CI indicates a favorable view regarding a given indicator, except for inflation, unemployment, interest rates and change in prices. A negative CI indicates the opposite.
The CI is computed as the percentage of those who answered in the affirmative minus the percentage of those who answered otherwise.
The nationwide survey was conducted from July 1 to 15 and covered 5, 597 households, 2,763 or 49.4 percent from the National Capital Region (NCR) and 2,834 or 50.6 percent from areas outside the NCR.