Duterte, Hitler and Bonaparte: Debacles in history

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Surely the Duterte rampage is unceasing, and into the eve of the D-Day in the presidential fight, he now appears to be the man to beat for the next presidency. There are talks now that Roxas has proposed to Liamanzares for her to withdraw in his favor if only to avert a Duterte win. Already, Duterte’s legions of fanatics are proclaiming him winner in the May 9 elections. Obviously this is calculated to justify harsh action from their end should, in all probability, Duterte lose the vote count. And the idea of Duterte losing after all is not far-fetched, on the contrary, a sound one.

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History teaches us the one single trait of conquerors that leads them to failure is arrogance. On the eve of the Battle of Waterloo, Napoleon Bonaparte, Emperor of France, was poised to war with the Seventh Coalition of Europe (composed of, among others, Great Britain, the United Kingdom of Netherlands and Prussia) had the conceit to mock his generals for being nervous about the British: “Just because you have all been beaten by Wellington, you think he’s a good general. I tell you Wellington is a bad general, the English are bad troops, and this affair is nothing more than eating breakfast.”

According to one account, “Napoleon’s surprisingly dismissive statements should not be taken at face value, given the Emperor’s maxim that ‘in war, morale is everything’ and that praising the enemy is always wrong, as it reduces one’s morale. Indeed, he had been seen engaging in such pre-battle, morale-boosting harangue on a number of occasions in the past and on the morning of the battle of Waterloo he had to deal with his chief of staff’s pessimism and nervousness and had to respond to several persistent and almost defeatist objections from some of his senior generals.”

Arrogance causes a general to lose sight of the real war situation and prompts him to miscalculate in his moves.

For instance, in the context of the Philippine presidential election, it is estimated that Catholic voters comprise 25 percent of the country’s voting population. Based on a turnout of 38 million voters in the last presidential election in 2010, Catholic voters should number more or less 10 million by now. How can Duterte possibly expect to win when he calumniously proclaims: “I don’t need CATHOLIC VOTERS. PUTANGINA! Ang daming religion dyan.”

And with a dirty finger to boot.

History teaches us that arrogance is a built-in factor for failures in battle. When the Battle of Waterloo broke out after that breakfast statement by Bonaparte, he learned to his cost that he had gravely miscalculated the English.

What was the strategy of the Duke of Wellington, leader of the British Armies? The question was asked of him by his Chief of Staff the night before the battle. He said, “How can I tell you tonight when my moves will be determined by what the enemy will do in the morning?”

To Bonaparte’s flanking attack in the north, Wellington countered with a call for assistance by the Prussian armies in Bonaparte’s undefended rear in the south, an intervention that led to a funneling of the French cavalry and infantry – to their ultimate annihilation.

How can Duterte proclaim victory early on when the moves of his enemies, particularly Vice President Jejomar C. Binoy, will only unfold on May 9 itself? If at all, Duterte’s bragging only serves to telegraph his moves for his foes to counter effectively – as the Duke of Wellington did to Bonaparte’s maneuver leading to the latter’s, indeed, Waterloo.

In much similar respect, after conquering most of Europe in 1941, Adolf Hitler, quite Duterte-like – in mental state, senselessness in killing civilians and petty law offenders, and a general disdain for humanity except the Germanic people – launched Barbarossa, a war plan for the conquest of Russia and the East. It was smooth-sailing in the beginning, with most of Russia almost falling into German hands but for Moscow. Quite against the advice of his field generals, Hitler insisted in stretching his invasion forces to encompass the endless boundaries of Russia beyond their actual capacity. By the time he agreed to focus attack on Moscow, the terrible killer Russian winter had set in, and the snow which caused temperature to drop to a killing 40 degrees below zero finally accounting for the final defeat of Hitler’s invasion.

The electorate must realize that the survey results beginning April – which depict Duterte as having established a formidable lead in the race – reflect the sentiments of voters that had not yet made their minds up in February. 51 percent already did, and of that 51 percent, VP Binay got 29 percent, Liamanzares 24 percent, Duterte 24 percent, and Roxas 19 percent. These expressions of preferences have been rendered constant, unchangeable up to the time of the casting of ballots.

Duterte is only fooling the nation if he insists that his current 33 percent score in surveys reflect the feelings of the entire voting populace. It does not. To repeat, 51 percent of total voters have already expressed and firmed up their choices in February.

Much ado is being done about the development taking place at the time of this writing: Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) has endorsed Duterte.

So?

In he first place, INC vote is less than 2 percent of the voting populace, more or less a million which added to the 5 something Duterte got in February, makes for a total of 6 million, still 2 million short of Jojo Binay’s harvest of 8.12 million in February. In the second place, what we have gathered is that the INC endorsement was reached in some sort of voting among top leaders of the church, in which voting Binay reportedly got 42 ministers’ votes; these ministers are expected to follow their conscience.

You only need to hold the elections to confirm this.

With Duterte making noise all over the country about his anticipation of victory, he just is defying lessons earned from his predecessors in history: Bonaparte in Waterloo and Hitler in the killer Russian winter snow.

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21 Comments

  1. Noel Garcia on

    Duterte have won by landslide in the Foreign exit polls averaging 52-83%
    Locally the recently held Pulse Asia, SWS, Laylo-Standard survey as of May 2-3 of 32-33% looks conservative

  2. Alfred G. Simbulan on

    I wrote this last night and posted in my fb.

    Tomorrow, the elections appear to be a Duterte-Bongbong or a Duterte-Leni win. How this came about is a result of the people’s frustrations in the past 30 years.
    President Aquino’s Daang Matuwid could not have done so much to give the people the change they wanted. How could he possibly change the system where less than a fraction of one percent (230 families out of a population of 120 million) together with foreign companies own and monopolize everything? They are the political power, who control our judicial system and its coercive powers — the military and the police. How could he possibly put behind bars all corrupt elected and bureaucratic officials when 98 percent of senators, congressmen, department secretaries and government bureaucrats, and generals continue to see graft and corruption as a legitimate reward for winning or being appointed to government service? He has been accused of being selective in his fight against graft and corruption … but could he have done more…like abolishing congress, the courts, the AFP and PNP and starting anew?

    Duterte glibly promises that he will wipe all of them out including criminals and drug lords out of the system using the iron fist while his electoral strategy is to use the most undemocratic forces. Well he didn’t do that vision in Davao City which is where the biggest owners and political leaders of Mindanao live and eat comfortably. He only popped the lumpen proletariat including their kids in the slums. That’s good for all of the big powerful guys who bring poverty to the people and that is why Mindanao is solid for Duterte. Behind him are three divine pretenders or religious hustlers who claim to be gods or prophets of god who control the minds of 12 to 15 million fanatical members or thirty percent or so of the total 55 million voters. All he needs now are a few regional warlords who too command another 5 to 7 million voters to win. In all not more than 10 powerful people will deliver him 22-25 million voters. Duterte has already been eaten by the system he abhors and claims he would destroy, when he raised the hands of despicable people from various regions to get more support. And we call this a democratic process. That is the long and short of it.
    That is one view. Just think about it.

  3. Just another columnist pushing for Binay. So what’s new?

    ## 52 more days until the end of Hypocrisy, Plunder and Incompetence ##

  4. What we see in the Phil is the result of generations of arrogance by the ruling class. We have a ‘democracy’ albeit a democracy to the extent that the arrogance of the ruling class allow us to have. Their arrogance leads to incompetence, then to corruption in govt, then to corruption in social justice, then to corruption in the criminal justice system, then to…
    The response of the people to the candidate was not planned by the candidate!!! It was the result of observant people around the candidate who noticed that attention directed to corruption in the criminal justice system got a resounding positive response from the electorate. Arrogance by the candidate against the establishment is expected by the people in their champion. The more arrogance he displays, the more he gives the impression of ‘burning bridges’ of raproachment with the establishment, endearing him further to the electorate. Over time the source of greatest danger is the continued arrogance of the establishment. Marcos and martial law were just a hiccough. The estblishment, in their arrogance to the people, took up where they left off after EDSA1. Following election, the candidate will either join up with the establishment or will be a 6 year hiccough in the continued reign of the oligarchal-political-economic complex.

  5. Duterte is God punishment to the corrupt Filipinos.God will send delusion and confusion to the Filipinos and leaders itself.as his punishment.Why God do that…Sin,corruption, idolatry,false religion, false prophets,false teachers,in the last days the love of many will became cold….The only solution is the entire Filipino Nation as a whole must repent……We are now wicked.
    God send confusion to the wicked nations as warning………

  6. Its very interesting how the writer compare Mr. Duterte in his article. At first we have the French conquer and strategist napoleon Bonaparte were the history show us that he lost in Waterloo but not only tru the Duke strategy, another factor would be also the weather if im not wrong during my elementary class. But its true he lost true miscalculation and he underestimate his opponent or against the alliance.

    Than he compare Mr. Duterte with Adolf Hitler one of the most evil person in Europe during the 19th century, where he killed around 6 to 9 million Jews, gipsy’s, homosexuals, etc. At least I can say Mr. Duterte didn’t kill 6 million People. Also Operation Babarossa was not only the mistake from Adolf Hitler that also include the Generals and the Feld Marshals.

    I also read the comments from the people what they wrote. I think we should see it from the angle why most of the Filipino folk choose Mr. Duterte. Some people would say its easy because they are disappointed of our government. It may be true or not.
    Its true Mindanao is under Duterte also our Visasays Region specially Cebu is in the Hand of Mr. Duterte.

    One reason would be that the Cebuanos, never forget during the Yolanda time where the government was not fast enough for helping the people. And I don’t mean the money that the president promise helping the Yolander victim. Why I saying that or mention it because I was there during this time as a Medcine Student. I was there to count dead body either helping people or identify the corpse with the help of the Cebuanos or other foreigner NGO organization. And by the way Mar Roxas was there but what did he do? He did nothing when he arrived.

    I hope you understand why most of the people in the Visayas region support duterte specially the tacloban region where the people there need the most. Even the Major from Tacloban, asking for help or begging for help but was blash from the Aquino administration specially from Mar Roxas. Because the mistake from the Major from Tacloban was his last name Romuáldez. But if I remember there is a beautiful video leak how Roxas treating the poor Major. Now you can guess where the voting will going if not Duterte than it will go to Marcos as Vice President.

  7. “How can Duterte proclaim victory early on when the moves of his enemies, particularly Vice President Jejomar C. Binoy, will only unfold on May 9 itself? ” — Mayor Duterte did not proclaim VICTORY nor claim it. It is the will of the majority, the Filipino people will do so!
    If you are favoring a certain ILUSTRADO to be the choice of the Filipino people, therefore you are a corrupt media person!

  8. Hector David on

    The yellow color has shown it’s true meaning.. lies ..dishonesty. .incompetence.. brazen disrespect and violation of oUR laws and constitution.cronyism. .Cartels and monopolies…continued suffering of the poor… hopelessness .. abuse of power….and GROSS STUPIDITY … wake up

  9. Mr. Samonte, i am sick of your blind hatred for Digong. Ang taong hinahamak mo ang syang pinili ng madlang pepol. Dito sa labas, tapos na ang boksing at malamang 80% ng OFW votes ay kay Digong. Ngayon, kung di mo matatangap ang pasya ng bayan, puede ka namang magbalot balot at mangibang bayan. Palit tayo. Kami naman diyan. Subukan natin na ikaw naman ang magbanat ng buto dito sa ibang bansa.

  10. You are just Anti Duterte. 30 years after EDSA. What did we gain? Nothing. It time to take a different approach. If after Duterte, nothing happen. I will say good bye Philippines. I will change my citizenship to an American.

    • Hey, Willy The Mugty Sturdy, how about joining Gracie in the good old US of A!!!

  11. Talakìtok3 on

    Very obvious na pro-Binay ka Mr. Guiasamonte.At ano ba ang tingin mo sa aming mga botante, mga gulay? Sinabi mo kasi “…still 2 million short of jojomar binay’s harvest of 8.12 million in February.” Choose your vocabulary next time, ok?

  12. Rio Legaspi on

    This is the culmination of a rotten altruistic morality in the country headed by the Witchcraft and the Brutes. You abandoned reason by using ordinary people as your accessories. The status quo injected altruism rather than reasoning into their brain resulting to collectivism which is your morality to become a sacrificial lamb! The people you are destined to perish because you do not have reasoning power, you are all drugged and a prime reason your Duterte will gonna kill you because you are useless. From brutes to another brutes, indeed you made your own death menu. At present, you cannot clean a mind full of altruism virus, you need to start all over again unless they are willing to turn their back just like the way I did it. That is for me is real change for every individual to find reason and throw away faith resulting to altruism building collectivism resulting to abuses like now and in history.individualism is the only way not collectivism: look at all witchcraft movement in the country exercising block voting and manipulation of ideas those people are followers of altruism sacrificial lamb without any reason at all. The country is on the verge of collapsing mainly because the foundation which is the ideas or philosophy was based on sacrificial lamb (altruism). No reasoning power at all!!!

  13. All i can say,duterte’s practical approach of fixing the ills of this country cannot be accepted by the few elites and pretending the wise ones…

  14. With due respect to the writer, you can shove off this piece of yours to all the Duterte legions who will vote him to victory – and i am pretty sure not even an iota of arrogance you’ll find with the man – only an iron will to reform this prostituted-bastardized system and climate you yourself could hardly breath in…and when DU30 finally lead you out of the rut, then, truly you can shove off this piece, for your own consumption. Goodluck.

    • Is Davao City under dictatorship? There is also an allegation that Duterte is a communist then we can even ask the former president Fidel Ramos and he can attest that Duterte is not and never will be. Duterte is a socialist. He lead his people with justice and unfathomable dedication as a leader this is why the people of Davao City loves him so much. Compare Davao City to other cities in the Philippines and you can never imagine that once a killing field became the safest city in the country. You are hallucinating with an impossible kind of leadership and your analysis is only hypothetical.

    • Alfredo Aquino on

      And so is Binay. Binay is a threat to the government coffers, a certified corrupt.