• Is Duterte to be toppled by another banana republic?



    IT would seem that if only for having been bequeathed the heritage of democracy by America, the Filipino people owe that nation a lot. From the establishment of the Philippine Commonwealth in 1935, election to public office all the way to the top executive post had been carried out through popular suffrage. So precious is that heritage that the late President Jose P. Laurel went on record as equating Filipinism to an “ennobling of the American tradition of constitutionalism and republicanism.”

    In the presidential elections of 1949, Dr. Laurel was the heavy favorite to win only the second presidential election
    in the history of independent Philippines. But at the turnout of the count of electoral results, then President Elpidio Quirino registered a winning margin of close to half a million votes. Dr. Laurel’s supporters could not take the beating and agitated for armed revolt, citing alleged massive cheating and violence by the Quirino camp. Though the Batangas Rebellion did take place as soon as the elections results were announced, Dr. Laurel would not consent to his people’s uprising, declaring, “I don’t want to go down in history as the President who turned the Philippines into a banana republic.”

    Come the next presidential election in 1953, deferring to the failing health of his wife, Dona Paciencia Hidalgo-Laurel, Dr. Laurel begged off from the contest, though he was perceived as the hands-down potential winner, and instead maneuvered to get the Liberal Party member, Defense Secretary Ramon Magsaysay bolting to the Nacionalista Party and being that party’s standard bearer. And, as goes the cliché, Magsaysay won, teeing off the historical pattern of defense secretaries getting elected President; Cory’s Defense Secretary Fidel V. Ramos would repeat the feat in 1992.

    And so it would strike serious students of the patterns in the installation of Philippine Presidents that it was Dr. Laurel who first advocated keeping faith with democratic processes in deciding who should become Philippine President. With the election of Magsaysay, those processes would be institutionalized and appeared to be strengthened through all the succeeding presidencies, those of Carlos P. Garcia, Diosdado Macapagal and Ferdinand Edralin Marcos.

    Of the last-named presidency, Dr. Laurel was again an integral factor. It was Dr. Laurel who, penning the ponencia for the Supreme Court decision finding the young Marcos “not guilty” of the Nalundasan murder charge against him, actually cleared the path for the Great Surge of the Ilocano Boy to the pinnacle of Philippine political glory: a 20-yearrule as President – unmatched in the annals of Philippine history.

    Of course, that rule was not without its blemishes of so-called martial law atrocities: warrantless arrests, imprisonment and tortures, human rights violations, extrajudicial killings and disappearances. These are indictments by the mob and invite much looking into. One thing is sure though. Those blemishes of the Marcos rule had not been imprinted in people’s minds without extensive encouragement and actual propagation by Marcos archrival, Ninoy Aquino.

    Now who is Ninoy to begin with?

    Undeniably, the glib-tongued, prolific pen pusher got the biggest thrust into his brilliant political career through his assignment as a cub reporter of the Manila Times at the battle lines of the Korean War in 1950. How many of us know that Ninoy could not have gotten into that job at the war front had it not been for the sponsorship of some sort by, again, Dr. Laurel? Ninoy was only 17 years at the time, a year short of the legal age of employment, but he turned to Dr. Laurel and implored him to undertake to guarantee his safety in the performance of the job; Ninoy’s father, Benigno, Sr., was president of the Kapisanan sa Paglilingkod ng Bagong Pilipinas (KALIBAPI), the lone political party in Dr. Laurel’s wartime government. That stint in the Korean war projected Ninoy to national prominence, gaining for him afterward the post of presidential adviser to President Ramon Magsaysay on the Huk rebellion. When Ninoy won election as mayor of Concepcion, Tarlac, in 1955, at age 22, there was no more stopping his political upsurge. As Cory would put it much later, “Ninoy really wanted to be President. Everything was just set for 1973.”

    The dawning of the Age of Aquarius thus witnessed the intense contention for the presidency by two virtual protégées of Dr. Laurel: Marcos, the erstwhile murder convict whom he absolved at the Supreme Court; and Ninoy, whom he groomed for a successful journalistic career early on. Would this antagonism have come into play had not Dr. Laurel intervened actively in the development of either political career in the first place?

    But such is irony, the offspring of a development you would otherwise wish to produce just its opposite. When Ninoy went on his suicidal homecoming in 1983 it was to ultimately set the stage for the snap presidential elections three years after. Marcos would win the count handily, but Cory would cry “cheat!” and use that cry to propel multitudes into what would go down in history as the EDSA People Power Revolt—in a strong sense, similar to the Batangas Rebellion in 1949 which Dr. Laurel vehemently objected to, not wishing to turn the Philippines into a “banana republic.”

    By bringing down a constitutionally constituted government, did not Cory in fact effect what Dr. Laurel feared? Isn’t it a travesty to hail Cory as an icon of democracy for trouncing the legitimate results of democratic elections?

    True enough, as Dr. Laurel feared in not consenting to the Batangueños’ resort to armed revolt to redress the wrongs of the 1949 elections, the Cory usurpation of the presidency in February 1986 spawned the seeds of “banana republicanism” in the Philippines. It set the precedent in the Philippine setting—what already had been a tradition in Latin America—for ousting governments through extra-constitutional means. And always, as in the South American arenas, the downfalls of Philippine Presidents were brought about on the one single criterion of them not being submissive to American whims.

    On this one single yardstick, next to fall after Marcos was President Joseph Ejercito Estrada, who in 2001 was deposed for defying the US admonition for him not to attack the MILF Camp Abubakar. Erap crushed the mother MILF stronghold, and two months after, he was ousted from the presidency.

    What seems significant in Erap’s case was that, unlike in that of Marcos, his removal from office was not accomplished through an overt military coup attended by complete disregard of democratic processes. The impeachment proceedings he was first subjected to all appeared regular and within constitutional constrictions. But it was to that perfectly legal appearance that irregularities in the proceedings were subsumed, concealing their utter unconstitutionality.

    Consider the railroading of the approval of the articles of impeachment against Estrada—through the plenary outright instead of going through the rigmarole of committee hearings. Then into the actual impeachment trial, it was that same appearance of constitutionality that justified in the eyes of a gullible public the walkout of opposition senators when it became evident that those proceedings would not succeed in getting the controversial second envelope opened and thus secure conviction of Erap. As Senator Presiding Judge Aquilino Pimentel pronounced in theatrical histrionics of quivering voice and tearing eyes the result of the Senate trial court voting on whether or not to open the second envelope, “The nays have it,” that signaled the opposition walkout – transforming the constitutional impeachment proceedings into the extra-constitutional rule of the mob.

    All that was needed to be done after a two-day interlude of EDSA II at the Edsa Shrine, was for Chief Justice Hilario Davide to administer the presidential oath of office to Vice President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, who was succeeding to the presidency declared vacant by the Supreme Court.

    As it was to a lady that the first Philippine Banana Republic was bequeathed by the American policymakers, so it was to another lady that the same policymakers passed the Second Philippine Banana Republic.

    This flashback should be troubling enough to President Rodrigo Duterte. The lawyer that he is, he should realize that the same pitfalls endemic in the Philippine Constitution that had wreaked havoc on the presidency of Erap could do the same trick on him. The significant players in a regime change could now be on standby. The Chief Justice, who is a PNoy appointee, could be at the latter’s beck and call to do a Davide. And another lady is certainly eagerly waiting to do a walk in the park on EDSA to the Third Philippine Banana Republic.

    President Duterte didn’t do that show of force at the Luneta on February 25 for nothing. The great showman that he is, the Digong was definitely delivering to the yellows the message, “Just you try it.”

    That ultimately would be Duterte’s terrible mistake. What ousted Marcos, or Erap for that matter, were not the EDSA throngs. In Marcos’ case, it was the US-backed military breakaway by the Enrile-Ramos tandem; in Erap’s, the similar military breakaway led by Erap’s very own kumpadre, Armed Forces Chief of Staff Angelo Reyes, who was teary-eyed as he led Erap out of Malacañang.

    What could be of comfort for President Duterte at the moment is that he’s apparently got the support of both houses of Congress. No impeachment proceedings appear imminent on account of this. His opponents are thus denied that element which in the case of Erap effectively served to ignite EDSA II that led to regime change.
    But then we are here ultimately concerned with CIA capabilities. Its bag of tricks is bottomless.


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    1. jess nazario on

      NO of course NOT for the plotters themselves will all surely tumble over each other for they will all slip over their own banana peels.

    2. i like the article..what i really do not like is that the writer and i think a lot of journalists from major media outfit is painting the president as if he is the force behind all this pro admin rally and support via social media…i thought the feb. 25- luneta was a convergence of volunteers and supporters for the administration..and i remember from the organizer interview he said we should support the government but we should also serve as a watchdog if they start to go astray. for me that tells a lot…
      also i do not think that a spendthrift person like PRRD would part with his money that easy..just a thought.

    3. I agree about our politicians setting precedents that are the downfall of this country. EDSA 1 has started the method of ousting politicians some groups do not like by taking to the streets. In my youth, we called it parliamentary of the streets during the Marcos era. Therefore, Filipinos no longer understand the rule of law. Even Noynoy did another Cory of setting a precedent by using DAP to oust Corona so now the executive branch can influence the judicial branch and justice is no longer objective. Therefore, I no longer believe that our three branches of government are independent of one another. Now, all branches of our government can influence any branch they desire. The Philippines will probably stay a banana republic.

    4. Du30 has a unique chance, being supported by the masses, to minimize US dominance around here. However, he seems to be turning to another hegemonic tyrant to replace US in his list of allies. Different dogs, same bite.

    5. Amnata Pundit on

      I strongly suggest that Duterte invite the Russians and the Chinese to set up military bases here to protect him. If not, at least he should get the Russians and the Chinese to help the military fight the MILF/Abu Sayaf and the NPA to make the people finally wonder why the Americans are helping protect our enemies while the Russians and the Chinese are helping us. Kailangan malaman at makita na ng tao ang mala-demonyong laro na ginagawa ng mga Kano sa atin.

    6. The Great Defiant on

      you failed to mention that the oligarchs is in cohorts with America.
      the real enemy of the state is the oligarchs.
      but surely the people is beginning to grasp it and its just a matter of time.

    7. Let’s also not forget Mindanao. Duterte is the first Mindanaoan to be elected President. Mindanao is absolutely proud and very supportive of Duterte. The Muslim population is steadfastly with Duterte, who has just launched a new Bangsamoro Transition Commission. Duterte has also raised hopes in Mindanao by promising Federalism, a mechanism to acquire more autonomy and self-rule that would free it from the whims of authorities in Imperial Manila. Mindanao, and the Moro provinces, will just explode should Duterte be toppled by force. Neither Marcos nor Erap had as rabid a following as Duterte has with Mindanaoans and the Muslim brethren. The Philippines will face a separatist fury like it never faced before, should Duterte be taken by force. The banana republic will begin to disintegrate.

    8. Clearly, nothing can ever come to fruition without the backing of Uncle Sam. What seems to be standing in Duterte’s favor is that Duterte has curried favor with China and Japan, who have promised huge amounts of investment and aid. Then there’s Donald J. Trump, still an unknown factor, who has so far declared a policy of non-intervention, except when it behooves the interests of the U.S.A. Will the U.S.A. be interested enough to intervene in Philippine affairs? There lies the quandary. It could be possible that the Trump administration will look at Japan or China as possible surrogates in this part of the world, and leave the small fish, such as the Philippines, for them to take care of. If that were to be the case, then Duterte will have won a huge victory because neither China nor Japan are interested in creating Banana Republics.

      • Hijo, ano naman ang “nonsense” sa sinulat nya? O baka kailangan mo pang mag aral ng recent history natin upang maintindihan mo ang konteksto ng mga nakaraang pangyayari.

    9. Dilaw ang sipon on

      US backed LP and yellow army coup? Bring it on, i would love to see blood on the streets. We need bloodshed so people will realize what a true revolution is? No blood, no revolution making Edsa 1 & 2 a bakla revolution!

      Next time US directly interferes here, all americans in this land will be put to extreme danger. Have they foregotten what happened to their embassy in Bengazi Libya?

      • Tama. It’s about time we show these yellow turds and their US-oligarchs backers who the Filipino really are.

    10. The Liberal Party and the yellow oligarch must not even try. It’s not 1986 or 2001. The people will not join them. And they must not give reasons to the trigger happy supporters of Duterte. The supporters of Duterte will make sure that these yellow politicians will not even stand in the EDSA monument.

      • aladin g. villacorte on

        The LP and its yellow army is plotting to oust Digong. This must be a joke: there are only 5 LP Senators left standing, with one languishing in jail, while the super majority has rendered the House membership is a mere “rubber stamp” of the President. The rest of the yellow army is in full retreat. Who needs martial law?

    11. with the threat of China’s Asian dominance, there is a strong demand for CIA to bring Duterte down.
      USA will not allow China to overtake them. what a selfish nation.