• End of an era and an overrated stock market

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    ejlopez

    The “changing of the guards” in the Senate shows how much politics has evolved and infected the Philippine way of life. Customarily, the Senate presidency as well as the Speaker of the House post is a choice by the majority as dictated by whoever is in power. The choice is for the president to make, but that jeopardizes the independence of the two chambers.

    Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile has resigned his post. He gave up the position, thus outsmarting the emerging new majority, which is bent on replacing him with another from among their ranks. At this point in his long political career, Enrile has lost his influence, not only among his peers, but in the whole country as well. The dismal performance of his son, Jackie, as a candidate for senator is proof of that. Jackie was accused of serious crimes. True or not, the fact remains that the people have chosen candidates who they think can represent them well.

    The senator is still respected. But he now start thinking of the legacy he wants to leave behind.

    Stock market plunge
    The fear of too much optimistic mood in the local stock market has reached its peak and the law of averages has finally caught up with our local bourse. After three (3) years of bull run, considered as one of the longest in modern times. It seems that the optimism which is expected to last for another three (3) years is not about to happen. Not that the stock market guru’s failed to predict these forthcoming upheavals but more than that their overly optimistic attitude put them in a bind as to what really was the inside information.

    As it is, the almost more than 3-year run of the bourse was incredible so to speak. More than the good reputation of the President, the sudden surge of foreign investors in our local shares market was an indication that nothing was good in the U.S. market. The situation has worked both ways; on one hand U.S. investors would rather wait for good days to come because of the big investment that have already been injected rather than transferring to other countries which is more costly. On the other hand, U.S. market recovery may mean an exodus of foreign investors from our country. Without saying it, the rise in the local bourse was not primarily because of our optimistic situation but rather because of the U.S. pessimistic situation the past few years.

    Huffington Post, a U.S. blog specialist stated, “Was the stock crash a shocking development? Not really. The Philippines had it coming, and regulators failed to catch up”. The past three (3) years of Pres. Aquino’s courting of foreign investors has produced insignificant values in terms of investments. Despite low inflation rate, local peso is overvalued giving rise to overvalued export products. The optimistic mood last week resulting from a 7.8% growth rate was immediately replaced by morbid moods because of the continued crash of the market that is expected to continue in the next few days.

    Richard Javad Heydarian, a U.S. economic analyst observed that “The problem is that the rise of the PSE was accompanied by macroeconomic imbalances. The Philippine Peso (PHP) has been on a relatively steep rise for almost a year, hurting electronics exports, which dipped by a staggering 32 percent early this year”. Over and above these is the unmoved unemployment rate that stands at around 7 to 8 percent.

    In surface, the Philippine economy is growing and that is because of consumer optimism and government expenditures that is meant to “pump prime” the economy. Despite repeated calls for more investment to come, more significant investors still refuse to heed the calls.

    The shallow nature of the local stock will be hurt by the expected plunge further of the local bourse in the coming days. In a way, its limited size has worked positively for us because it has not affected other consumers and or investors, who have invested much in the bourse.

    Although it not about time to invest much in the stocks because of uncertainties it bring, it however should be the proper time to rethink your position lest be a victim of either greed or fear. A few take-off should be enough to unload your more priced shares then reinvest on a turnaround stock that requires more time to keep in your vaults, before finally unloading.

    For comments email: doc.ejlopez@gmail.com with cc to: opinion@manilatimes.net.

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    2 Comments

    1. What goes up must come down. So many prediction even those even those economist but when the housing market toppled down, it,s not just the NYSE. Greece defaulted so as the PIIGS. During this period the BRIC emerged and we thought those emerging market will save the stock market. I don’t believe in so called gurus. I do my own research, not just because of the dividends but the high and lows and what had affected it to tumble down. GMCR for example the downfall was due to bad accounting and right after it was corrected, it bounced back so fast. I checked the portpolios of Warren Buffet as well as those successful mutual funds. There holdings and the timing. Quite interesting too.