• Grace told: Don’t count on popularity

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    High survey ratings don’t necessarily translate to victory.

    A veteran lawmaker said this as he cautioned Sen. Grace Poe not to be dazzled with her being a pre-election survey frontrunner as history has proven that popularity is not the be-all and end-all in the political derby.

    House Majority Leader Neptali Gonzales 2nd of Mandaluyong city (Metro Manila) noted that history has shown that it is very difficult for an independent candidate to succeed in his or her quest unless he or she has a well-oiled machinery to deliver the votes on election day.

    Gonzales cited the cases of Sen. Miriam Defensor- Santiago, the late Raul Roco and former senator Panfilo Lacson. They all lost in their respective bids for the presidency.
    Santiago and Roco were popular with the youth when they respectively aimed for the presidency in the 1992 and 1998 elections.

    Santiago relied on the People’s Reform Party, which had a negligible grassroots organization. Fidel Ramos, who was endorsed by President Corazon Aquino and was backed by the Lakas-NUCD coalition, won the race.

    Roco who also relied on his own party, Aksyon Demokratiko, was overrun by a more popular Joseph Estrada, who was backstopped by the machinery of the Laban ng Makabayang Masang Pilipino (LAMMP) in 1998 while Lacson–who ran as an independent in 2004–was no match to the powerful Lakas machinery of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

    “In history, those who ran independently, or even from smaller parties like PRP and Aksyon Demokratiko, were unsuccessful. Historically speaking, there has not been one [who won the presidency]. For one, you won’t have [election watchers]if you don’t have a political party,” Gonzales pointed out.

    He, however, clarified that being with an established political party does not guarantee a victory because times have changed.

    “Being with a big political party doesn’t guarantee a win. There are other available tools for campaign now that did not exist before… there’s social media, and the media, which would also play a huge role,” Gonzales said.

    Having said that, the son of the late Senate President Neptali Gonzales does not see anybody as a frontrunner at this point.

    The filing of candidacy is October 12 to 15, but the last pre-election survey will be released in September.

    In recent Social Weather Stations and Pulse Asia surveys, Poe edged out Vice President Jejomar Binay and former senator Manuel “Mar” Roxas 2nd by at least eight percentage points.

    Poe also dominated the survey for possible bets for Vice President.

    “Any candidate, declared or otherwise, will be feeling the pressure. Secretary Mar has said that it will be an uphill battle, the other camp whose ratings are going down would also be worried, and even those on top…because this is the first survey that would factor the President’s endorsement,” Gonzales said.

    Poe and Sen. Francis “Chiz” Escudero attended last night’s gathering of members of the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) at the residence of the party’s founder, industrialist Eduardo “Danding” Cojuangco Jr. in Quezon City.

    Deputy Speaker Giorgidi Aggabao, president of the NPC, earlier said majority of the members are backing a Poe-Escudero tandem in 2016.

    Escudero was a member of the NPC before he resigned to become an independent in the 2013 elections.

    Sen. Vicente Sotto 3rd, however, was quick to dispel speculations that the two senators’ presence means they will team up in next year’s elections under the NPC banner.

    “This is just a fellowship and consultation… Imposible. May iba pa kaming iko-consult [It’s impossible to make an announcement. We’re still consulting others],” Sotto told reporters.
    The NPC was formed in 1991 as a vehicle for Cojuangco’s presidential bid.

    While Cojuangco no longer pursued politics after his defeat in 1992, the party continued to exist.

    The “fellowship” was held hours after congressmen affiliated with the NPC had a meeting with Roxas.

    “That’s a different story. Over here… is the NPC meeting itself. That is not an NPC meeting. [There still is no]party stand. [Once there is an] official party stand, most probably the members will follow,” Sotto told GMA News.

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    7 Comments

    1. Grace Poe,pagdating ng election talo ka,you are using family name Poe,beacuse of Fernando Poe until now did not concede that FPJ lose to GMA, Paano yan mataas ka kuno sa survey sa 1,300 ghost individuals na sinurvey daw ng SWS at Pulse Asia. Political machinery is very important that includes logistics (money) advertisements,manuevering,vote buying and goyo (promise the poor,they will be given food,employment and shelter) kaya mo bang ipangako yan sen.grace? Hindi! wala kang partido tiyak kang talo! kapag natalo ka kayong dalawa ni susan roces sisiin niyo si Gloria! hahahahahahaha!imbes na tumakbo kayo ni Chiz sa pagka pangulo at at pangalawang pangulo magmunimuni muna kayo itanong niyo sa sarili niyo kaya ko bato? kita niyo si Pnoy maraming nagoyong botante kaya ano nangyari? puro kapalpakan ang blame niya sa lahat ng kapalpakan niya si Gloria,OMG!

      • laguatanlawzen.com on

        Tama kayo hindi ginagamit ni Grace ang Llamanzares kasi hindi kilala sa madla – ang matunog na apelyedo ay POE. Walang hia akala nya mannalo sya sa pagka Presidente. Anong talino ang dadalhin ni Poe sa Presidency? Zero.

    2. alvin stamaria on

      Ang taong dikit sa kanya nagyon ay mataas ang ambisyon…..ingat lang po Maam…….may kasabihan….wolf disguise in a sheeps’ clothing……..& all the political parties backing her have amassed wealth during the martial law…years……watch out Maam…..

    3. Roldan Guerrero on

      The elderlies always say that ” A little learning is a dangerous thing”. Grace Llamanzares is a crude example of a greedy politician who is too ambitious and who pretends to be competent in the highest government position. She is no less than another one if not even more stupid than her mentor….the PORK BARREL/DAP KING.The presidency is not a joke , we should learn from the Cory and BSA example who did nothing but put every Filipinos in jeopardy..This DRUNKARD LIAR woman should face the reality that she is not and never qualified in any government position. Her citizenship and residency status are both in question. She should resign and give-up her senatorial seat and stop riding on popularity hunger and stop all obsessions she is dreaming that could result to a nightmare.

    4. The 2016 presidential election will be a battle of magic. It started with Pnoy winning with the help of Cory’s magic. Grace will be the next president with the help of FPJ’s magic. Binay has a big chance in the election because of black magic. For Roxas to win, he must resort to hocus pocus or abra cadabra.

    5. Everyone with the intelligence of an elementary school graduate knows that popularity is not a benchmark of winning an election derby, that’s a given. Money is the only factor that decides elections so to even mention it in your article is an exercise in mootility (or is that even a word). Joseph Estrada was an exception. If the election was held today, Poe would win but questions regarding “natural born Pilipino” will have to be resolved first. DNA testing should provide some answers if not the answer.
      Compare to the birthers of Obama, questions about “natural born” definition has risen yet the furor has died since the guy is on his way out. We are facing six years of executive function here, will these be laid to rest ever?

    6. Grace Poe is riding the Aquino express and trying to hide it.

      Why else would she give the SAF 44 investigation to Ombudsman Morales instead of to the senate ?

      Since she gave the report to Morales a vote is now required to reopen it and that will never happen with the Aquino allies in congress who do as they are told or risk joining the 3 jailed opposition senators for giving their pork barrel allocations to fake non government organizations thru Napoles and Abad.