• Has it settled down to Poe versus The Digong?

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    Supporters of Digong Duterte hold the Pulse Asia surveys aloft, like some sort of a political bible, the contents regarded as the gospel of political truth. Supporters of Grace Poe do the same, but this time the source of their celebration were the results of another mainstream survey entity – the SWS poll work released April 17. The reason is this: The Digong leads in the Pulse Asia surveys with consistency while Grace Poe led The Digong by a slim margin (just 1 percent) in that SWS survey.

    Meanwhile, those who are just looking for clarity in the survey results are asking this question: Which survey data is closer to the truth – the Pulse Asia surveys with Duterte holding the commanding lead or the one by SWS with Poe with a very slim lead? Which survey entity has been conducting surveys with real rigor? The conflicting results are not only confusing to the ordinary voters and to the political class but to the election donors as well.

    Indeed, which of the two surveys hewed to the truth and analytical rigor? Who between Poe and Duterte is the real leader in the presidential race? Filipino voters are not used to see-sawing, rapidly-shifting polling leads. Previous presidential surveys that covered at least three election cycles had been more or less unanimous on the leader and eventual winner.

    The divergence in the results – Leni Robredo also edged out BB Marcos in that SWS survey released April 17 – does not suggest that the data had been skewed to favor one candidate over the other. The cash-rich media networks have been bankrolling these polls and they want the polls to be as accurate and scientific as possible. A mere 30-seconder from a high-rating TV network costs a fortune and what they pay the survey entities is peanuts compared with their election-related revenue. The integrity and rigidity by which the polling entities do their work is a given as they are being incentivized to do so.

    While no clear, most likely winner has been identified by the polling work, the survey numbers agreed on one thing – the main competitors now are Digong Duterte and Grace Poe. The other tough contender – Mr. Binay – has seen his once-formidable polling lead evaporate. Unless he pulls off a miracle, Mr. Binay, at least according to the numbers, will be a very sad man after the May 9 polls. The only remaining flicker of light is the fact that Mr. Binay had pulled of such kind of improbable feat in 2010. And he can do a two-peat.

    Digong Duterte, the consistent leader in the Pulse Asia surveys, is probably waiting with bated breath for the results of the survey post his joke on rape, a true rape case that involved an Australian woman missionary at that. Leaders of the Church have been on the attack over the crude joke of Mr. Duterte and the Australian community has said its piece as well.

    Will Mr. Duterte slide in the polls from that immoderate remark? We will see. Should the post-joke surveys still show voters’ faith in Mr. Duterte, then Mr. Duterte shall have survived the worst episode of his campaign and will most likely cruise to victory. If not, then Grace Poe will take a comfortable and not-so-tenuous lead.

    A new survey by the Church, with Poe leading on its “trust issues” seamlessly intersects with the Church’s condemnation of Duterte’s rape joke. The only problem here is that the Church has no proven track record in sinking down candidates that it opposes for one reason or another. In the 2013 senatorial elections, most of those labeled Team Patay and supporters of the RH Law won despite the Church’s open campaign against them.

    OK, one question is left unanswered. What about the declarations from the LP-led ruling political coalition that Mr. Roxas, the administration candidate, will defy the survey figures and win in the elections? Two answers: bunk and baloney.

    For all his supposed smarts and political sophistication, Mr. Roxas has been running the most orthodox, the most traditional campaign in the current election season: a campaign strategy that will get no traction in the 21st century. Mr. Roxas has premised his victory on the massive delivery of votes from provincial and regional warlords and armies of grassroots volunteers. And endorsements from political heavyweights.

    For the nth time, I will say this. Endorsements from political heavyweights, including the President of the republic, are as worthless as the pledges from provincial and regional warlords. Historically, the only voting blocs that deliver are the religious groups, the small ones and not the mainstream Church. Outside of these religious groups, all voting blocs are as hollow as hollow blocks. The regional and provincial warlords will get your money and resources but don’t deliver the numbers to match their fealty.

    Mr. Roxas is uber-popular with the Makati Business Club and the Davos crowd. The MBC top guns are, however, the type who can’t even convince their drivers, maids and gardeners to vote for their chosen candidate. The Davos crowd cannot vote. Mr. Aquino, at this point, will probably say I will take a bullet to save the candidacy of Mr. Roxas. But Mr. Aquino is the endorser you need if you want massive rejection from the voters. He is a negative factor, not a positive one.

    The polling numbers now say that the presidential contest – after the rough and torturous winnowing of Mr. Binay – is now between Ms. Poe and Mr. Duterte. Whether that is a welcome development for our unstable democracy, or a sad one, can only be judged by history.

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    13 Comments

    1. A very fine example of bias and presented opinion survey is the post debate opinion survey conducted by ANC Ch 27 / ABS CBN right after the conclusion-end of the debates. Four were asked – one leaning to go for Miriam, and the rest were all for Mar.
      And the female host and the network itself was not spared from being labeled as pro Mar, the manner/way of line of questioning directed to Mr Duterte…

    2. Kung gusto ninyo ma approve ng US Embassy ang mga Visa applicatons ninyo para maka pag vacation grande sa Aremica de Estados Unidos – go for Grace Poe. Kung gusto ninyong maka witness ng firing squad katulad ng nangyari kay Lim Seng nag taon 1972 nag batang bata pa ang Martial Law ni Apo Lakay Ferdie – kay Digong. Isa lang ang dapat mangyari sa bansa na ito. Get rid of these Monsters Drug Lords – the root and source of all crimes, heinous and barbaric crimes.

    3. Huwag kayo mga ungas na mga dakilang mangmang na mabubulag ng mga “trend setting” at “public opinion swaying” na mga sandamakmak na mga surveys-surveys na iyan. These surveys are out to influence and condition the public perception of these candidates, bayad ang mga surveys na iyan ng mga entities working closely with these struggling candidates out to make a killing – and fool the voters up to the last minute of their decision. SWS says they will release one and final survey b4 May9 – to fool all the unsuspecting fools throughout the land

    4. To me, the economy is now jumpstarted by Pnoy’s administration. I am thankful for that. But just like Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, we now move on to other needs, although there is still work for the basic need of food. What I wish now from government are:
      – development spread throughout the country, not just in NCR. it gives me a rebellious feeling that my income tax goes more to subsidizing people in metro manila. and my children will have to leave us to work there.
      – peace in Mindanao; end the fighting and the corruption that goes with war, please.
      – the curbing of drug menace which is now just around the neighborhood, and within my children’s school premises. this problem leads to other criminal activities. am afraid we will have a zombie generation.
      The programs and institutions are probably there already. it’s just the implementation.

    5. In the first place, surveys should not be published. This writer makes me sick! What a brazen display of bias. Surveys should be given to the one who paid or commissioned for his information and guidance not the public since the public did not commission it. This survey which has become a profit-rocketeering should be stopped by the Supreme Court. It mislead the people and sway voters to abandon their choice for the reason this survey wants to project. Surveys are not accurate as it will only ask about approximately 1,000 people which is not reflective of the majority people. This writer should be doing his obligation to the people to enlighten and educate but is becoming a party of a political trick and idiocy. No wonder this country is becoming sick (cancer) because educated people have become a party of that sickness! You asked Digong or Poe? Should I believe a paid and fraud survey? Do you think you can mislead people? Only the uneducated and ignorant one will believe. The presidential fight belongs also to Miriam Santiago, Binay and Mar. But one thing for sure that you don’t want to publish. The Radio Veritas made a survey and it was Poe and Santiago who topped the survey and you did not even mentioned in your biased column. In universities, Miriam Santiago is topping these surveys and these surveys are not paid. 35% of voters will come from the youth from 18-35 years old and clearly this sector favors Miriam Santiago, again you did not mention this. I am an OFW and I can tell that Digong is not the only choice among OFWs. Me and my colleagues, FB mates, acquaintances here abroad voted for Miriam Santiago. Shame!

    6. If Binay suddenly admit and return all the taxpayer’s money he allegedly stole and then promise to jail all the gov execs who were accused of graft n corruption including Aquino, then maybe he can still grab additional percentage of voters to his side.

      • Rodan Guerrero on

        You are talking of allegations which never landed in reality. Binay became the target of destruction by publicity since everybody in the LP are afraid of what will happen to them once Roxas or Poe, Pinoy`s manchurian candidate will not make it. For almost 2 yrs of continued destruction by Pimentel, Cayetano and Trillanes in the Senate, can they prove any? Not even a final report came out after they stopped. Binay is correct that allegations and accusations should be performed in the proper forum which is the judiciary. Has he been convicted? NO, the senate investigation held by the 3 rouged senators, who could not even attract any other senator to join them accumulate enough evidence to stand any case against Binay to be prosecuted. I am definitely for Binay or Miriam rather than choosing a clone of STUPID BSA or a former American who is a serial liar since her birth or to a Berdugo who publicly admits killing suspected criminals. I am for a presidentiable who can show solid accomplishments. It is possible Binay can make progress to the nation just like what he did in Makati.

    7. Jesus bueno jr on

      Binay in other survey outfit is the number one.he has a core group to catapult the presidency.he was nowhere in the vice presidential derby yet he emerged as the winner.you vote base.on platforms and experienced of the candidate and binay hv it.

    8. The only thing to make Jojo win is to announce in today’s zarzuela that he will spare no one who commits sleaze during his administration and that he will jail beneegno for all the unconstitutional acts he has committed and that he will never spare joseph emilio as well as jose angel for their criminal acts of incompetence and inanity. Not one of the other presidential candidates have committed to jail beneegno which makes them all suspects as having received campaign funds from beneegno coursed his allies that were planted in the camps of the respective candidates

    9. You are referring to the results of the SWS Mobile Survey which Mangahas is claiming to be an experiment. The survey involves the use of cellphones distributed to a predertermined set of respondents to which survey questions are sent and respondents reply. How this could be a scientific random survey, only Mangahas knows. More like an experiment in conning the electorate.

    10. Mr. Ronquillo Duterte with the Human rights abuses and killings attributed to him he should not be President. Duterte no doubt have also an ugly personal character as can be seen in his late public talks.
      Poe is blatantly unqualified as culled from her public talks, accusing her rivals with lies that shows her naivety and dishonest with his personal facts .
      Mar Roxas is hounded by a plethora of incompetency in heading the DOTC, DILG and blame for the deterioration of the Electric trains and the airports.
      The only viable candidate is Vice-President J Binay has a good public service experience and a Lawyer. The graft and corruption charges against him if really true could have landed him in jail already like Enrile et al. what with the immense interest of Malacanang to prosecute him with Ombudsman Morales using all the might and power of her office plus the BIR and Senators who have ganged up on him and his family Binay should have been in jail if the accusations were true as it will bolster the chances of Poe or Roxas to win as they are candidates of Aquino.

    11. I don’t think so Mr. Ronquilo.

      The case between Mar Roxas and Grace Poe.

      Before I go any further. Let me tell you that I have so much respect for both of them. I believe they are both respectable, honest and can function well as President. In fact, I would have supported a MarPoe or PoeMar. But God had a better plan. He has decided to put a Vice President with unquestionable integrity and dedication. I am referring to Ms. Leni Robredo, my Vice President. I could tell you more good things about Leni Robredo but for now this is about Mar Roxas and Grace Poe.

      Even when the issue about Grace Poe’s citizenship came out, I was still considering a PoeRob more than RoRo because I was worried about Mar Roxas’ winnability. I was afraid that if I don’t give my support to Poe instead then Binay or Duterte might win. But when I learned about the overwhelming support of the Silent Majority then I went back to my selection process again by comparing the two candidates’ character, background/experience and leadership attributes. I believe everyone should consider the same selection process and not rely on popularity and persona of the candidate.

      Character:
      Both of them are god-fearing, polite, honest, humble and decent. In terms of loyalty, I would have to give it to Mar Roxas because there was never any question about his Citizenship considering he had also worked in the US for a while.

      Background:
      Both of them have very good educational background. In terms of experience, Mar Roxas has been a Congressman, a DTI secretary, a senator, a DILG secretary, a DOTC secretary just to name a few. Grace Poe on the other hand has been an MTRCB chair and then became a senator. In terms of bills authored and co-authored by these two candidates. I can tell you with certainty that Mar Roxas has done more than Grace Poe. So clearly Mar Roxas has a more solid experience and background.

      Leadership Attributes.
      Both candidate can clearly inspire and motivate the people around them. However, In terms of planning, directing, controlling and delegating, Mar Roxas have demonstrated these Leadership Attributes very well in agencies he has managed while I am yet to see Grace Poe demonstrate them.

      Yes. I may not be fully satisfied with Mar Roxas performances but he has done pretty good with some areas of improvement. But for Grace Poe, there is nothing for me to rate unfortunately.

      In addition, one of the most important Leadership Attributes that I barely see in private or public organizations is the “Other-Centered Leadership”. What this means is that you don’t care about what other people think about you as long as what you are doing is for the benefit of all if not majority. Mar Roxas demonstrated this attribute when he gave the opportunity of Presidency to PNOY even if he knew it will surely hurt his ego and that some people might think that PNOY is better than him although it is not necessarily the case.

      There you go. It is very clear that Mar Roxas has a Better Character, a more Solid Background and has Better if not the Best Leadership Attributes among all other Leaders I have ever met in my entire life.

      Therefore I will no longer settle and vote for the Lesser Evil but will now vote for the true Qualified Candidates, which is Mar Roxas as my President and Leni Robredo for Vice President. Mabuhay!