Has SWS been rigging its surveys to boost Roxas’ and Robredo’s ratings?

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It seems so, or the Social Weather Station’s collation of data has fallen under the control of Manuel Roxas and Leni Robredo’s operatives, so that in the past two surveys their voter-preference ratings have inexplicably surged, while those of Vice President Jejomar Binay and Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. have fallen.

This could be done because of SWS’s new polling method, which would allow votes for presidential candidate Binay and vice presidential contender Marcos, Jr. – whose ratings have dropped for a reason – to be rejected on grounds, as the SWS itself describes it, of “invalid markings.”

Only in its last two surveys did the SWS adopt this new method, which it had never used before (not in its 2010 polls), for determining how many of its respondents choose particular candidates.

Instead of the standard procedure of the pollster writing down the name of the candidate the respondents say they will vote for (and therefore, accepting these at face value), the new method asks the respondents to mark their choice in a ballot, privately, and put it in a container.


SWS suddenly changed its polling method, and Binay’s ratings plunged.

SWS suddenly changed its polling method, and Binay’s ratings plunged.

On the surface, this appears to be an appropriate method. But in reality, it merely mimics how election cheating has been undertaken for decades in this country. This is done during the counting of the ballots, with the votes for the candidate who is being cheated declared invalid or are rejected. At least, in the low-tech way of counting ballots in the past, candidates were allowed to put in place their own poll-watchers who could raise a protest every time a certain vote for their candidates was rejected.

The counting of the “ballots” by the SWS, though, takes place in hidden rooms, with no third-party observing the process.

In its new method of polling, ballots with “invalid marks,” SWS itself explains, are rejected. It has not explained what qualifies as an “invalid” mark, however. It has neither reported its process for counting the ballots nor disclosed which candidates were chosen in such rejected ballots.

The number of such rejected ballots is not insignificant: 7 percent in its March 30 to April 2 survey and 5 percent in the April 18 to 20 polling. (This excludes the 3 percent of respondents in the two surveys who replied that they had not decided whom to vote for.)

It does not seem coincidental then that when SWS used this new method of polling, and 7 percent and 5 percent of ballots were rejected, Binay’s ratings plunged from 24 percent in early March to 20 percent in late March, and to just 14 percent in the last poll conducted in early April.

If the 7 percentage points of “rejected” ballots in the March 30 – April 2 poll were for Binay, his ratings would not be at 20 percent but at 27 percent, at par with Duterte’s.

For the manipulators of the SWS data, only 5 percent “rejected votes” were needed to bring Binay’s ratings to 14 in the most recent poll.

In contrast, a survey from April 21 to 23 by a major pollster commissioned privately (which is expected to be released publicly soon), but which did not use SWS’s method of polling through ballots but by the standard way of the interviewer writing down the respondents’ replies, showed the following: (Table 2)
pollster20160427It also does not seem coincidental that when SWS used this new method of polling, Robredo’s rating jumped from 19 percent in March to 26 percent in April. The 5 percent rejected votes in the April poll were likely those for Marcos and Francis Escudero, which explains why the two candidates’ steady ratings – Marcos’ even surged from 19 percent in December to 26 percent in March – were broken only when the SWS used its new method of polling, and rejected 4 to 5 percent of the ballots. (See Table 3)
vice20160427Roxas and Robredo obviously have made manipulated polls as a major part of their electoral strategies, since without these to project that surveys from reputable pollsters show their political support, massive cheating on May 9 elections would be so obvious – far from the polling results – as to provoke public outrage.

The use of ballots and SWS’ power to reject certain ballots is not the only new way it employs for its polls, which is obviously intended to pull down Binay’s ratings. In a previous column (“The SWS mobile ‘survey’ and an Indonesian tycoon’s potential, crucial role in our elections, April 10, 2016), I exposed that the SWS’s new type of polling it calls the “SWS-Bilang Pilipino Mobile Survey” isn’t at all a legitimate poll since it involves a permanent panel of about 750 respondents, whose views the SWS collects through their SMS messages via cellphones provided by the Indonesian-owned PLDT.

Only the SWS and PLDT know the cellphone numbers of these respondents and one easy way of manipulating this panel’s responses would be to send them messages favorable to a certain candidate, before they even receive the question which candidate they prefer.

SWS’s partners in these two very questionable polling methods are entities both controlled by the Indonesian tycoon Anthoni Salim: Smart Communications in the “Bilang Pilipino Mobile Survey” and the newspaper BusinessWorld in the ballot-based polling, in which the SWS rejects certain ballots.

It is certainly not coincidental that in both of these two questionable polls, Binay’s ratings were pulled below Roxas’ at 15 percent in the “Mobile Survey’s” on April 13, and 14 percent in the ballot-based April 18 purported “poll.”

In contrast, the other major firm PulseAsia, which uses the standard method of getting responses in its April 12 -17 poll, reported Binay as staying in third place in the contest, with a 19 percent rating.

Roxas’ and Robredo’s rivals should demand that the Comelec investigate what could be the biggest propaganda scheme of this election.

tiglao.manilatimes@gmail.com

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34 Comments

  1. engineer top5 on

    SWS is fabricated!
    It violates the LLN: Law of Large Numbers.
    As you can see from public surveys (rappler online surveys, etc), Duterte’s ratings do not go down 59%. with mean of 70%.

    Duterte’s 38% is justifiable if occurred only once, although in statistics is already an outlier.
    SWS does not follow the LLN by making Duterte’s rating below 38% all the time. Its probability being true diminishes drastically 0.0000… * 0.0000…

    The LLN, and CLT are the two laws of Nature that is violated by SWS, and according to the science of statistics, SWS is simple a fraud.

  2. Anyone taking these surveys as gospel is fooling themselves. What they do not want you to know is there are inside polls from several sources showing Binay as the front runner with Marcos being the front runner for VP. The LP’s own in house poll April 5 showed the same results…. Vote how you believe you should vote and forget any paid for but the candidate or candidate supporter surveys were ever published.

  3. Edwin Subijano on

    The SWS is an instrument of the CIA and US imperialism !!!

    Never believe in its so-called surveys !!!

  4. So how can Poe, Roxas, and Binay, salamabit three aspirants now ganging for the “Punisher”, knocked Duterte out 12 days before the D-Day?
    Exploit to the hilt now, as their lives and Philippine democracy depend on it like crazy, by exposing the P211 million “dirty monies” Duterte and daughter Sara Duterte Carpio (was she the daughter- in- law of Davao RTC Judge Emmanuel Carpio that was sued by anti-smuggling group SINAG on the release of the container vans of rice in Davao?) allegedly joint account deposited on 2014 at Bank of Philippines Islands (BPI) branch at Julia Vargas Avenue in Pasig City.
    Gee whiz, Duterte’s actuation if found true would not only be in patent contradiction of his projected image as incorruptible as he lived a humble life style but will be damaging to his political stocks come election day.
    READ: http://mortzortigoza.blogspot.com/2016/04/duterte-and-p211m-dirty-money.html

  5. Guys, since Pnoy’s winning the presidency in 2010, everything was preprogrammed either manually or electronically. Six years is more than enough to accomplish it & set all things in place. The method I presumed was so systematic than even the experts cannot decipher what is going to happen, isn’t it? Only opinions are the truth of the matter as we had observed in so many different analysis which remains unverified. Now, what shall we do if massive cheating occurred & the most voter’s unpreferred presidential candidate wins? What kind of protest or rallies shall we put on the table?
    Do we still have a final say on this? Just a reminder.

  6. … this is cheating to the max…it has been done before it will happen again…but we should be vigilant

  7. I don’t think there’s been any rigging in favor of the LP presidential and VP candidates. My impression has always been that the SWS surveys, so well-publicized in The Phillippine Daily Inquirer (PDI), have been rigged in favor of Lying Grace Poe-Llamanzares. Then I found out that Raul Mangahas (a top dog at PDI and apparently an owner and director of the outfit conducting the surveys) is the “controller” of SWS. He is a cousin of the late FPJ, the adoptive father of Lying Grace. No wonder the surveys always tried to build an upward momentum for Lying Grace, especially, at the beginning of the campaigns. Occasionally, the surveys would put VP Binay on top just to show the surveys are unbiased. Then, in the following survey, Lying Grace is shown to be on top again! Who would believe such manipulative surveys? They are not based on acceptable random sampling techniques, and they can only be characterized as flawed. The results should be discounted and discarded by anyone planning to vote.

    Yesterday, I read that a Malacanang Palace spokesman is complaining about the “weighting” used in the latest survey. Since there is this complaint, the last two SWS surveys (using the modified method) cannot be said to have been rigged in favor of Roxas and Robredo.

  8. In the first place, survey results like this should not be allowed to be published as it sway people’s choice of vote. People should choose base on platform of candidates not on the basis of popularity out of survey that we know all too well that does not represent the sentiment of majority. It is meant to condition the minds of the people and to sway their votes. The publication of survey results should be banned! I hope that the media be responsible in publishing. But what do we expect anyway from commercial media? Of course, profit is needed in order to survive!

    • correct, the only reason Duterte has high ratings is because of Pinoys na mahilig sa USO. wala pake sa plataporma, basta USO :D

    • SWS denied they conducted a survey showing Duterte 27% and Grace 26%. It’s a fake Survey. In Pulse Asia Duterte had 33%, Grace 22%. Mar won in Visayas which is impossible. Duterte’s rallies in Visayas were jampacked even in Iloilo and Bacold. Who says Duterte has no platforms. Only ignorant will say that. His priority is education, agriculture to provide affordable food. Of course he need to first the govt from corruption. Duterte has no hidden wealth. Even Miriam, Teddy Locsin Jr know Duterte well. Trillanes is the barking dog of PNoy. why? PNoy granted him amnesty from his rebellion case. Remember he was imprisoned from Oakwood Mutiny in 2003 and another rebellion in 2007.

  9. sino na kc may ari ng pldt? sa bayan natin,hindi tau ang nasusunod, mga taga indonesia.

    naway alisin na ng PANGINOONG DIOS ang sumpang ito sa mga Pilipino–tubig kuryente ospital lupa ay unti-unting nasa kamay ng mga taga indonesia at ibp.

  10. Surveys like these do not represent actual votes since participants are only few. Let’s hope and pray for a decent and true leader. RD’s too good to be true.. Can he really stop criminality in our country? He cannot control the fate of anyone.. He’s not god. He even changed his statement on planning to counter criminals.. He said he’ll try to suppress. He’s impulsive..but he is a good entertainer. Filipinos love entertainers.. Poor us. Tsk.

    • What entertainment are you talking. Make further research how he transformed Davao from a killing field to one of the top 20 livable cities in Asia as cited by Asiaweek.

  11. I noticed COMELEC, in their information drive on how to vote, does NOT emphasize checking the bar codes on the official ballots for any additional markings or even dirt. I suppose even a very slight smudge on the bar code would easily electronically invalidate the ballot. A very convenient and almost undetectable way of cheating.

  12. Elmer Capapas on

    Panic button has been hit LP is in panic mood…survey rigged? watchout election will also be rigged.. kawawa ang pinas.

    • Is this a repeat on what they did to POE’s father FPJ, common, are these surveys are the machineries of the administration to boast their candidates ratings in the polls. I am not surprised at all because the way it appears that the survey results conditioned the mind of Filipinos. Wake up Philippines, be alert, be wise and vigilant, don’t get influenced by ratings and surveys, vote with confidence, be honest to your self what is the right person to be your leader

  13. I strongly believe people’s awakening, & finally discerning GP’s lies, Dutertes’ instability ,never mind re Binay,…..?Rather than your imagined rigging.

    • you seems focus on “let the rigging done” – sabagay cheating is no longer unusual to “Daang Matuwid”. They will unleash all their resources just to keep safe Aquino & cohorts from future incarceration for plunder.

  14. Lenor Aredadop on

    Si senator Alan Cayetano ang malakas ngayon pero pilit nilalaglag sa survey ang dami supporter ni mayor duterte na gusto sila dalawa ang mag tandemn. Alam ko sa bandang huli xa ang mas favorite.. Go lang senator Alan Cayetano!!!mabuhay ma..

  15. Lenor Aredadop on

    Why senator Alan Cayetano is not really active in the race for vice presidential race? Instead he is the one among of the favorite to all vice president candidates. All the supporters of mayor Duterte want him to be his vice president especially in Mindanao.. Marami nagsasabi na dapat sila ang mga tandemn para mabilis at madali maitupad ang dapat nilang gawin.DUCAY2016

  16. At this point they should shut down this survey ratings and Media should assist the public to vote wisely depending on the Candidates platforms and vision for the Philippines.
    The discussions should not be about their ratings but about more about the quality and leadership we need for this country to rise above poverty ,climate change,economy and how opportunities can be distributed to the middle class and poor.
    Must know the candidate and not their ratings.

  17. DO NOT VOTE DUTERTE KASI BASTOS AT MAYABANG NA DICTADOR SIYA. KAHIT DAYAIN SIYA SA ELECTION AY OKAY LANG HUWAG ANG ANG KATULAD NIYA ANG MALAGAY SA MALACANANG PALACE..MALAS

  18. Last time I checked, Roxas’ numbers have been consistent in Pulse, SWS, Laylo and IAC. If SWS is rigging it for LP, then the other pollsters could be rigging theirs too, right? Also Binay’s number dwindling down to 14% (SWS) isn’t even that far from Pulse at 16% so why blow it out of proportion.

    VP Survey
    Also, you claim that Leni’s 7pt surge was due to the change in SWS method when the table you’ve provided clearly contradicts you. it shows that Leni’s already 24 from March (4-7) even when SWS was still using the old method. As a matter of fact it was her numbers that got affected declining to 19 (March 30-April 2) when the new method was used. So how can you come up with such conclusion that the LP is rigging it?

    You’re also claiming that the SWS is pulling down Escudero’s number (18%), when it’s very much aligned with Pulse Asia (also at 18%)

    The author’s quite obsessed with cracking up conspiracy theories. Any person with a rational mind would attribute the discrepancy to the ff:
    (1) Random sampling – SWS does this by major isand groups while Pulse does it by regions, if I’m not mistaken.
    (2) Period – The pulse survey was done at a longer period (Apr 16-20) compared to SWS (Apr 18-20)

  19. This is quite alarmng as the yellow elitist is setting up Robredo to win the presidency, as if Duterte wins, he will be out in Malacanan after 6 mos..presto..tuwid na daan pa more!!?

  20. We should never trust these surveys. Vote according to your own choice, and do not be swayed by the so called “bandwagon effect.”

  21. Teddy Sevilla on

    Magulo isip mo.

    I was watching you demonize D’punisher but you diverted back to Roxas bashing. Has some inside information arrived that tell you that Roxas-Robredo is now the bigger threat? Saan na ba yung part 2 mo na anti-Dut?

  22. I agree the administration is manipulating the survey as all of the people behind SWS are administration men. Just like what Aquino and his men has been doing for the last 6 years distorting the facts not telling the truth that his administration is a complete failure.

  23. Very true! That’s SWS scam!

    Now, who believes SWS now?

    That’s the best way for SWS as a business to self destruct for having lost credibility and integrity.

  24. Nothing will be done! What with Bautista being a cousin of Pnoy! Our Congress just rubber stamped Bautista as our Comelec Chief, after he plundered the coco levy fund, of which he was also the head! When will they be prosecuted? Maybe this is why they don’t want Marcos to win?

    • Is`Bautista really a cousin of Pnoy? Do you have a link or reference to support your statement? This is really interesting information. No wonder Bautista dissented in Comelec’s disqualification of Lying Grace Poe who is apparently Pnoy’s secret candidate for the presidency.

      “Talagang hindi masyadong mapagkakatiwalan si Bautista”. He is one of the reasons why this election cycle, as was the case in the past, is again beset with problems. So many years to prepare, but still no improvement. What is so unpardonable is the release of private voters’ information in the Web due to hacking. “Mga bobo and incompetent ang mga IT personnel ng Comelec”.