IMF to give PH higher GDP growth outlook


The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will soon come up with a higher growth forecast for the Philippine economy to reflect the strong second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP).

“The second-quarter GDP outturn in the Philippines was somewhat faster than anticipated in our 6 percent growth forecast for 2016,” Shanaka Jayanath Peiris, IMF resident representative to the Philippines, said on Tuesday.

Last week, the government announced the economy, as measured by the GDP, grew by 7 percent in the second quarter, which lifted first-half performance to 6.9 percent from 5.5 percent a year earlier.

“Therefore, we will mostly likely be revising up our growth forecast for the Philippines in the next round of revisions,” Peiris said.

Most banks and think tanks have also revised upward their full-year growth estimates for the Philippines.

Fitch-owned BMI Research upgraded its forecast to 6.9 percent from 6 percent; Japanese investment bank Nomura and London-based consultancy firm, Capital Economics raised their forecasts to 6.7 percent—Nomura from 6.3 percent and Capital Economics from 6.5 percent Singaporean DBS Bank revised upward from 6.3 percent to 6.6 percent; Swiss banking giant Credit Suisse raised its forecast from 6.2 percent to 6.5 percent; and global financial services firm J.P. Morgan revised upward to 6.4 percent.

HSBC, Metrobank Research, and Bank of the Philippine Islands stayed with their previous projections. HSBC and Metrobank kept their forecasts at 6.3 percent and BPI at 6.2 percent.


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