How do the key countries line up on carbon emissions curbs?

US proposals announced Wednesday for curbing greenhouse gas emissions add a key piece to the negotiation jigsaw puzzle ahead of the December 7 to 18 world climate talks in Copenhagen. French President Nicolas Sarkozy, in Brazil on Thursday, November 26, for a one-day meeting on climate change and Amazon forest conservation, hailed new US and Chinese proposals on combating global warming as “extremely encouraging.”

At a press conference, Sarkozy praised US President Barack Obama’s “courage” for setting goals that would reduce US carbon emissions by 17 percent by 2020, while also offering positive words for China’s proposed moves to reduce carbon emissions.

“The latest statements by Barack Obama and China’s leaders are extremely encouraging in making Copenhagen a success,” said Sarkozy, who is attending the meeting because France’s overseas department of French Guiana is in the region.

And world leaders were gladdened by news that the US president would be attending the Copenhagen conference.

Here is how other major emitters line up:

Industrialised countries

UNITED STATES: World’s No. 2 polluter says it will offer to cut emissions by 17 percent from 2005 levels by 2020, a 30-percent reduction by 2025, a 42-percent drop by 2030 and a fall of 83 percent by 2050.

The offer “is in the context of an overall deal in Copenhagen that includes robust mitigation contributions from China and the other emerging economies,” says the White House.

The US target for 2020 means only a fall of a few percentage points compared to 1990, the benchmark year widely used as the interim target in the UN process.

EUROPEAN UNION: Unilaterally cutting its emissions by 20 percent by 2020 compared to 1990 levels, and offering to go to 30 percent if other industrialized parties follow suit.

RUSSIA: President Dmitry Medvedev, in a summit with the European Union on November 18, reportedly agreed to a cut of 20 percent to 25 percent by 2020 from 1990 levels, raising its target from 15 percent.
This has not been put into writing or confirmed officially.

JAPAN: Offers a cut of 25 percent by 2020 relative to 1990, provided there is “a highly ambitious accord with participation by all major countries.”

CANADA: Sees a reduction of 20 percent by 2020 compared to 2006, equivalent to a fall of 3 percent compared to the 1990 benchmark. The federal parliament has passed a non-binding motion urging a 25-percent cut relative to 1990, while the province of Quebec has said it will follow the European Union’s position.

AUSTRALIA: Bill before parliament for reducing carbon pollution by between 5 percent and 25 percent by 2020 from 2000, with the higher levels dependent on the outcome in Copenhagen. Experts estimate that a cut of 25 percent over 2000 equates to 24 percent over 1990 levels.

NORWAY: Says it is willing to reduce emissions by 30 percent by 2020 over 1990 levels, and say it is willing to consider going to 30 percent or 40 percent. Also aims to be carbon neutral by 2030.

NEW ZEALAND: Reduction of 10 percent to 20 percent by 2020 on 1990 levels, depending on outcome in Copenhagen.

Developing countries

BRAZIL: Voluntary reduction of 36percent to 39 percent by 2020, mainly from tackling deforestation in the Amazon, as compared to its forecast level of emissions in 2020.

CHINA: World’s biggest carbon emitter. Vowed at the UN’s climate summit in September to improve its energy efficiency in proportion to its economic growth. On Thursday, November 26, China announced it would cut the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product in 2020 by 40 percent to 45 percent from 2005 levels.

INDIA: Says it is taking actions to reduce emissions and may quantify them into a “broadly indicative number,” but no announcement yet. India also argues that its per capita emissions are very low and legally binding cuts have to fall on the shoulders of rich countries alone.

INDONESIA: National program would reduce emissions by 26 percent by 2020 from forecast trends mainly by tackling deforestation, according to a speech by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono on September 29. With international support, Indonesia could reduce emissions by as much as 41 percent, Yudhoyono said.

SOUTH KOREA: Has promised a voluntary 30-percent reduction by 2020 over “business-as-usual” trends.
MEXICO: Announced in June a cut of 50 million tons a year by 2012, equivalent to around 8 percent of national emissions.

SOUTH AFRICA: Has not announced specific targets so far.

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China announced its first targets for limiting carbon emissions on Thursday, joining the United States in revealing the stance it will take at next month’s high-stakes climate summit.

China will cut the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product in 2020 by 40 percent to 45 percent from 2005 levels, a statement from the State Council, or Cabinet, said.

“This is a voluntary action taken by the Chinese government based on its own national conditions and is a major contribution to the global effort in tackling climate change,” the statement said.

It added that China would face “enormous pressure and special difficulty in controlling greenhouse gas emissions.”

The announcement marks the first time China has put specific numbers in a September pledge by President Hu Jintao to reduce the intensity of its carbon emissions as a percentage of economic growth by 2020.

Hu said at the time only that carbon intensity would be reduced by a “notable margin.” However, emissions would continue to grow under China’s plan.

Carbon intensity refers to emissions per unit of economic activity.

China’s announcement came a day after the White House Washington said President Barack Obama would attend the December 7 to 18 meeting in Copenhagen with an offer to cut US emissions by 17 percent from 2005 levels by 2020.

“This is definitely a very positive step China is taking just one week before Copenhagen,” Yang Ailun, Greenpeace China’s climate and energy campaign manager, told Agence France-Presse. “But we think China can do more than this.”

China on Thursday announced that premier Wen Jiabao would join dozens of other world leaders at the summit, which was called to seek a successor to the Kyoto Protocol on limiting greenhouse gas emissions.

A foreign ministry spokesman said Wen’s attendance would “fully demonstrate the great importance attached by the Chinese government to this issue.”

Scientists have warned that without aggressive action, global temperatures could rise dramatically this century with calamitous consequences for world climate, leading to rising sea levels and other grave threats.

Pressure has mounted on China and the United States, the number one and two sources of carbon emissions, to announce substantive steps to limit their carbon emissions and seek a meaningful deal in Copenhagen.

Greenpeace’s Yang said the United States had missed an opportunity to put “enormous pressure on China” by not announcing a more ambitious target.

Compared to the 1990 benchmark used by almost every other country, the US target only amounts to something like a 4-percent reduction from that year’s levels, Yang said.

In contrast, the European Union has vowed to reduce its emissions by 20 percent from 1990 levels before 2020, raising the target to 30 percent in the event of an international agreement.

The US pledge, however, also promised steadily increased cuts to 2050, when emissions would be reduced by 83 percent from 2005 levels.

The United States has urged China to take aggressive steps to limit carbon emissions. But Beijing has argued that rich developed nations bear the historical responsibility for carbon build-up in the atmosphere and should shoulder the burden.

China says that as a developing nation, it should be given leeway on emissions as it seeks to grow its economy and alleviate poverty in the nation of 1.3 billion people.

China also has previously set goals of cutting energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product by 20 percent between 2006 and 2010 and getting 10 percent of its power from renewable sources by 2010 and 15 percent by 2020.

Obama’s offer reflects numbers in a bill narrowly passed by the House of Representatives in June but yet to be confirmed by the Senate.

A slightly more ambitious bill to come before the Senate early next year talks of a 20-percent reduction from 2005 levels by 2020.
AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE