Ric Saludo’s former colleague Roger Mitton contributed this article
 
Embarrassing stumbles happen even to big guys. At last year’s London Olympics, a sloppy baton change by the favored Brits caused their relay team to be disqualified. At previous

Games in Beijing and Athens, America’s top-rated sprinters dropped the baton and ruled themselves out of the medals.

So perhaps we should cut Cambodia some slack for repeatedly dropping the baton during its chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations over the past year. At key meetings and summits, Phnom Penh’s kowtowing to Beijing and its failure to back fellow members in their positions on the South China Sea territorial disputes led to a rare open discord tarnishing Asean’s once-sacrosanct consensus.

So it was at the November summit when Cambodia falsely declared that Asean leaders had agreed not to “internationalize” the conflicting maritime claims. Half the group’s members rebutted that assertion, and when Cambodia fought to keep the communiqué language favored by its Chinese patrons, its Asean colleagues resisted and expunged such wording from the final declaration.

The episode was so shameful that the group’s Secretary-General Surin Pitsuan admitted that it had caused Asean to suffer a crisis of confidence. After all, unity is key to its regional clout.

Only as a united grouping spanning vast lands and waters from Myanmar to Mindanao, Laos to Papua, with 600 million people generating a combined economic output in excess of $1.8 trillion, tenth-largest in the world, can Asean stand tall in Asia.

Recently, the International Crisis Group’s regional director Jim Della-Giacoma said events of 2012 have laid bare the deep fault lines running through Asean’s diverse membership. Well, at least the annus horribilus is almost over. And to the relief of all, the baton passed from Cambodia to Brunei this year.

Although tiny, Brunei has more experience of Asean affairs and a wiser understanding of the group’s consensual credo than Cambodia, having joined the grouping in 1984, fully 15 years before the latter’s entry. And in Foreign Minister Prince Mohamed Bolkiah and Second Minister Lim Jock Seng, Brunei has a veteran duo who are actually liked by other members.

Cambodian Foreign Minister Hor Namhong is also experienced, but at 77 and after 14 years in the job, many believe he is past his sell-by date as an effective diplomat. Plus the reality that Phnom Penh’s dependence on Beijing’s largesse constrains its actions even in the company of its Southeast Asian neighbors.

Those things cannot be said of the quiet but warm Mohamed, the avuncular Lim, or oil-rich Brunei. It is alleged that Mohamed has the job only because he is the Sultan’s brother, and that Lim is the brains behind the twosome. But true or not, few dispute they form a competent and likable team, so there is less chance of internal squabbling or the non-issuance of communiqués under Brunei’s chairmanship. That is something to welcome.

Yes, there is a trade-off in that little Brunei will not actively push for any major initiatives, but that is all well and good: what Asean needs now is a year of quietly restoring group amity and solidarity.

That process will be aided when the talented but rather excitable Surin was officially replaced yesterday by Vietnam’s Deputy Foreign Minister Le Luong Minh, a grey and cautious apparatchik. Typically, Surin has urged that Minh be given a greater mandate to act on behalf of the entire group, but there is little chance of that happening—doubtless much to Minh’s relief.

During his five-year term, Minh has said that talks on a code of conduct for the South China Sea and the implementation of a regional nuclear-weapons-free zone will be his top priorities.

Good luck to him on both counts. There is no way the United States, China or India will agree to the latter goal. All three have atomic weapons on a good number of their naval vessels and would never say which ships and subs carry nuclear warheads just to comply with a no-nukes policy.

Nor would China accept limits on its military moves in the South China Sea, not only because it claims nearly all of it, but also due to the increased deployment of US naval and air forces in the Philippines, within striking distance of Chinese trade traversing the South China Sea, including 80 percent of the country’s oil imports.

Still, as long as such talks are even-handed and do not descend to the depths of rancor encountered in Phnom Penh over the past year, most people will be happy.

One more thing: Given their friendly ties with the Americans, Brunei and Vietnam should avoid doing for the US the summit tricks Cambodia tried to do for China this year. Let Asean also have a respite from big-power meddling by proxy.

Said Della-Giacoma: “As the new secretary-general settles in, Asean watchers are not expecting as much public reflection in the coming year, especially with taciturn Brunei taking over the rotating chairmanship.”

Let’s hope he is right.