Much has been said and written about the coming “Battle of Manila,” which pits incumbent Mayor Fred Lim against former president Erap Estrada.

Erap believes that his sheer popularity will carry the day for him, while Lim—a non believer in surveys—is in a better position not only because he is the incumbent, but because he has the stronger grassroots organization.

One problem facing Estrada is his being a multi-term mayor of San Juan. A lot of voters may hold this against him. Then there is the fact that he is a convicted felon, who should be banned from running for any public office but for the absolute pardon granted him by former president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

Another factor in favor of Lim is his close ties with the Aquino administration. Manila becomes awash in yellow every time there is an anniversary commemorating the life and death of President Benigno Aquino 3rd’s parents, former president Cory Aquino and former senator Ninoy Aquino.

The Edsa Revolt celebrates its 27th anniversary next month, and we can expect the Philippine capital to take an active part in the festivities.

No surveys have appeared yet, but I expect the Manila electorate to give Lim his third and final term as mayor, which would give him a total of five terms given his previous two terms as the city’s chief executive.

This is not to belittle Erap’s mass appeal. Anyone who has seen him up close knows that the mustachioed Estrada can charm any woman to remove her, uh, shoes with ease. Men, too, I suppose. As long as he has an audience of whatever size, he never runs out of wisecracks that elicit instant smiles and laughs.

Lim, on the other hand, is more of a serious father figure. Actually, he looks more like a grandfather with his shock of white hair, so he is more of a Super Lolo. He may be old, but you do not want to mess with him.

I had the opportunity for a one-on-one interview with Lim some years back and he said back then that his goal was to win three consecutive terms before heading off into his political sunset.

Whoever is elected (or re-elected) mayor of Manila is likely to serve only until 2016, after which the incumbent vice mayor will be well placed to take over.

This means that the next mayor will be a showbiz figure. Erap’s running mate is incumbent Vice Mayor Isko Moreno, while Lim’s partner is councilor Lou Veloso. In his younger days, Moreno was being groomed for leading man roles, while Veloso was a stage actor who went into comedy, appearing in a number of movies and TV shows.

Moreno was formerly an ally of Lim, but switched to the Estrada camp owing to his close ties to his fellow actor-turned-politician.

Since vice mayors are elected separately from mayors, there is a strong possibility that Moreno will beat Veloso in the coming elections, in which case Manila will continue to be headed by a Lim-Moreno tandem for the next three years.

For Moreno to not seek to succeed Lim (or Erap) as mayor in the next elections would be illogical, irrational and abnormal. Of course he aspires to be mayor of the city.

There are, to be sure, several other would-be mayors who are expected to try their luck in 2016. Any of the Bagatsing brothers may want to give it another go, while one son of former mayor Lito Atienza may also want to try his luck again.

Ali Atienza ran but lost in the last elections, while Kim Atienza may want to go back to local politics. Ali has since faded to the background, while Kim has not. Kim was a former Manila councilor who once ran for congressman, but lost because he was too young and too raw back then.

Since then, he has become a well-known figure, having been a TV weather man and now an animal-loving environmental activist. Kim is also a popular product endorser, so his face is pretty familiar to a lot of people.

For now, we can be sure of one thing. The next mayor of Manila will be a (very) senior citizen— Lim is 83 while Estrada is 75— but the man who takes over after him will be comparatively young.

Moreno vs. Veloso should be a very interesting fight.

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