Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed November 14 that it had killed Ahmed Jabari, the leader of Hamas’ armed wing, the Izz al-Deen al-Qassam Brigades. (Times Editor’s note: Hamas itself began as the armed wing of te Muslim Brotherhood.) IDF targeted Jabari in an airstrike earlier in the day as he was driving with an unidentified passenger in Gaza City.

In addition to the strike on Jabari, the Israeli air force reportedly attacked a cache of 20 long-range missiles and a Gaza police station, and loud explosions are being reported in Gaza City. Media reports have listed six dead and 10 injured in the ongoing strikes. An IDF spokesman announced that the Israeli military was embarking on Operation Pillar of Defense, which could include a ground incursion into Gaza. IDF units have also reportedly begun moving to the country’s south. This appears to be one of the largest military operations undertaken by Israel inside the Gaza Strip since Operation Cast Lead at the end of 2008. The assassination of Jabari seems to have been a first salvo, one that will provoke retaliation from Hamas and that could affect Jordan and Syria.

Analysis
The airstrike that killed Jabari came a day after Israel warned that it was considering targeted assassinations in response to increasing rocket fire from Gaza. That it was able to attack successfully so quickly after the announcement suggests that Israel had excellent intelligence on Jabari’s location and movements.

Hamas has reason not to want an escalation of the conflict with Israel. After years of political isolation, Gaza recently received its first ever visit by a foreign Arab head of state when the Qatari emir visited. Hamas has blamed radical Islamists and fringe groups within the Palestinian enclave for the recent surge in rocket attacks, but it will have to respond to Jabari’s assassination. The key question will be how far it is willing to go with that response.

The attack resonates throughout the region, particularly in the Arab states affected by the Arab Spring, such as Egypt. The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood has already called on President Mohammed Morsi to re-evaluate Egypt’s relationship with Israel because of the ongoing airstrikes. The new Islamist government has been careful not to show too much support for Hamas for fear of alienating Israel. But Hamas was formed out of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, and the two are intricately linked. An escalation in the conflict between Israel and Gaza would put enormous pressure on Egypt’s government to crack down on Hamas’ activities on the Sinai border, to close the crossing at Rafah and to shut down the group’s smuggling tunnels. This in turn would undermine the Brotherhood at home and add to its mounting challenges as it gears up for legislative elections in the new year. It could also further strain Egypt’s relations with the United States.

Effects on Jordan and Syria
Jordan and Syria could also be affected by a flare-up in the Israel-Gaza Strip conflict. Jordan is home to a large Palestinian population, and an escalation in the conflict between Israel and Gaza would revive pressure on the Jordanian monarchy over its peace treaty with Israel. For Syria, a conflict would distract the rebels’ supporters and would mean that Israel would be less tolerant than ever of any activity near the Golan. And escalation would disrupt Hamas’ own regional strategy.

Renewed and expanded bouts of rocket fire are certain, including rockets targeting urban areas. But the question is what other operations Hamas can and will conduct. It is unclear whether Hamas would try to deploy suicide bombers inside Israel or against Israeli interests elsewhere, similar to the campaign of suicide attacks during the 2000 intifada. In fact, it is far from clear that Hamas even has the assets to deploy or that it can get them into Israel. Still, such attacks cannot be ruled out.

Republishing by The Manila Times of this report is with express permission of STRATFOR.