Vice presidential race wide open – Pulse Asia
BY ROMMEL C. LONTAYAO REPORTER

Senators Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino 3rd and Manuel “Manny” Villar Jr. tied for the lead in the presidential race, results of the latest Pulse Asia survey showed. The race for vice president, however, was less crowded, according to the poll results.

Pulse Asia reported that the two leading contenders for the presidency in the May 2010 elections were virtually deadlocked with Aquino getting 37 percent voter preference and Villar, 35 percent. The two candidates were considered tied because of the survey’s plus or minus 2 percent margin of error.

The 12-percentage point improvement made by Villar of the Nacionalista Party (NP) in just three months and the 7-percentage point decline registered by Aquino of the Liberal Party made the deadlock possible.

Former President Joseph “Erap” Estada, who was third in the ranking with 12 percent, also experienced a 7-percentage point decrease in voter preference.

Villar’s improved public perception was observable even if one of the issues that hit the headlines when Pulse Asia did the survey was the Senate Committee of the Whole seeking to censure him over the controversial C-5 road extension project.

His sustained marketing offensive may have been the driver of his rise to the top of the survey, according to Pulse Asia head and Professor Ronald Holmes.

Apparently, the new Villar votes only affected Aquino and Estrada as “voter preferences for the other presidential candidates [did] not register marked changes between the two survey periods.”

Meanwhile, the other candidates who were mentioned in the survey got one digit voter preferences: former Defense Secretary Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro (5 percent), evangelist Eddie Villanueva (2 percent) and Sen. Richard “Dick” Gordon (1 percent).

Still four other standard-bearers got less than 1 percent each while less than one in 10 Filipinos (6 percent) does not have a preferred presidential candidate at this time.

Pulse Asia said that in terms of geographic areas, Aquino (38 percent) had the lead over Villar (24 percent) in Metro Manila. In other areas, they “register[ed] virtually the same preference”: Balance Luzon (Aquino, 37 percent; Villar, 36 percent); Visayas (Aquino, 41 percent; Villar, 38 percent); and Mindanao (Villar, 36 percent; Aquino, 33 percent).

Aquino leads among Class D (40 percent) respondents and among the elderly who were 65 years and older (42 percent). Villar got the lead in the 25 to 34 age group (42 percent). Voter preferences for the two leading candidates were essentially the same across other socioeconomic classes and age groups.

Pulse Asia said that a presidential candidate with a clean record or not being corrupt (24 percent) was the top reason why voters would choose him as the country’s leader.

Other reasons cited were the ability to do something (16 percent), helping others (11 percent), being a good person (9 percent) and experience in governance (6 percent).

Huge lead
The vice presidential contest is not as tight as that for president.

A near majority of the voters (47 percent) would vote for Sen. Manuel “Mar” Roxas 2nd if the May 2010 elections were held at the time of the survey.

Roxas, in the latest Pulse Asia survey, enjoyed a sizeable lead over Sen. Loren Legarda (28 percent) and Mayor Jejomar Binay of Makati City (13 percent).

The other vice presidential candidates got at most 2 percent voter preference. Seven percent did not have a favored vice presidential candidate.

Roxas led in Luzon, including the National Capital Region (Metro Manila) and the Visayas. Voter preferences for him and Legarda were essentially tied across the Mindanao areas surveyed.

Significant movements
He also had sizeable leads among the upper socioeconomic classes ABC (54 percent) and D (49 percent) and across the various age groups.

According to Pulse Asia, among the vice presidential candidates, only Roxas and Legarda registered significant movements in voter preference between its December 2009 and January 2010 surveys.

Roxas posted an increase of 8 percentage points and Legarda suffered a decline of 9 percentage points.

Pulse Asia’s January 2010 preelection national survey was conducted from January 22 to 26, 2010 using face-to-face interviews of 1,800 representative adults 18 years old and above.

It had a plus or minus 2 percent error margin at the 95 percent confidence level. Margins of error varied as to geographical area surveyed were plus or minus six percent for Metro Manila, plus or minus 4 percent for the rest of Luzon and plus or minus 5 percent for each of the Visayas and Mindanao.

Aquino also on Wednesday said that he had expected the slide in his lead over his rivals for the presidency but he remained confident that he would keep that lead until election day.

“All of them are hitting me just to be noticed. What is surprising is that I am still leading in the surveys,” he told a press conference at the Senate, apparently reacting to the latest Pulse Asia survey.

A recent survey by the Social Weather Stations gave Aquino a lead of just 7 percent, compared to 19 percent in early December 2009.

Villar’s followers said that his continuing rise in the surveys showed that the C-5 controversy was being ignored by the public.

Aquino had another interpretation, however.

He said that the people had not yet fully grasped the issues involved in the C-5 scandal and that Villar’s ratings would drop once the people knew the “truth” behind the controversy.

“A toll road project became unviable because a parallel road along C-5 was constructed by the government. Who would use the toll road if there was a free road beside it?” Aquino asked.

He maintained that if the people would look at the C-5 scandal in this light, the ratings of Villar would go down.

Aquino said that he would reveal this “truth” to the people, while stressing that he would not be focusing on C-5 during the entire campaign.

He added that Villar’s ratings had been propped up by Villar’s advertisements. The Liberal Party said that Villar outspent Aquino 7 to one in advertisements when all of the preelection surveys were conducted.

Aquino expressed confidence that he would maintain his lead up to election day, saying that the mobilization of his army of volunteers still has to make itself felt in the campaign.

“I would like to assure everyone, especially our supporters, that as the formal campaign period starts, we will work harder to make sure that we remain on top of the fight,” he said.
WITH REPORT FROM EFREN L. DANAO