Analysts warn of bets’ usual, hollow promises

The Philippine election season kicked off on Tuesday but analysts warned that the candidates’ promises of change were likely to prove hollow.

The analysts were seen to be looking at a big battle among four out of the 10 contenders for the presidency in the May 2010 balloting—Aquino, Estrada, Teodoro and Villar.

“I don’t think there will be any change in the idiosyncrasies that define the Philippines,” Robert Broadfoot, the managing director of the Hong Kong-based Political and Economic Risk Consultancy group, told Agence France-Presse.

The official start of the election season allowed presidential candidates to hold rallies and appeal directly to people for their votes, while spending limits on advertising took effect.

A frontrunner in the presidential contest is Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino 3rd, who spectacularly rode into contention last year on a wave of sympathy upon the death of his mother, democracy icon and former President Corazon “Cory” Aquino.

His huge lead in surveys, however, eroded almost as quickly as it was gained, with mega-rich property developer Sen. Manuel “Manny” Villar Jr. having caught him with nearly 40 percent support in surveys after an advertising spending spree.

Adding spice to the presidential race is deposed former President Joseph “Erap” Estrada’s attempt at political resurrection, after he was deposed halfway through his first term in 2001 and later convicted of corruption.

Estrada is running third in the surveys and analysts said that the former movie star could yet achieve his wish of redemption.

“It’s going to be difficult for him, but he has 100 percent name recognition across the country—it depends on how diligently he runs his campaign,” said Ronald Holmes, a political lecturer at De La Salle University in Manila.

The ruling coalition’s choice to succeed President Gloria Arroyo, former Defense Secretary Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro, is running a distant fourth with just 5 percent support in the latest surveys.

But Holmes, also the president of polling firm Pulse Asia, said that picking a winner three months from the elections was impossible, and even Teodoro had a chance if the coalition’s formidable machinery could kick into action.

Gibo confident
Teodoro, the Lakas-Kampi Christian Muslim Democrats (CMD) standard-bearer, officially launched his campaign in Antipolo City, east of Manila.

Hundreds gathered at the Ynares center and the rally officially started at about 4:30 p.m. with more than 20 mayors and 40 congressmen, local officials of Antipolo and Rizal province, Interior and Local Government Secretary Ronaldo Puno and Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita gracing the event.

Mayor Danilo Leyble of Antipolo City said during the rally that Teodoro has the support of the 315,661 registered voters of the city.

Teodoro vowed to go to towns and places he has not visited before as part of his barnstorming.

“Aside from continuing my campus visits to explain my platform of governance to our youth groups, we are planning to go to the provinces and meet sectors we haven’t visited yet,” Teodoro said when asked by reporters on what campaign strategy he will adopt to bolster his popularity rating.

He added that he believes his public opinion rating among presidential candidates will go up as the 90-day campaign progresses and when local officials of the ruling party start their campaign in March.

Over 70 percent of local government officials nationwide are Lakas-Kampi CMD members who are seeking reelection.

“We may be behind [the surveys] but given 90 days and a 0.3 percent a day increase in popularity, we are confident that we can make [it]. I won’t be here if I am not confident [of winning],” the former Defense chief said.

Teodoro added that they would also focus on convincing the people to work together so that the country can move forward. He said that they would not resort to making personal attacks on the other presidential candidates.

Lawyer Raul Lambino, one of the six senatorial candidates of the administration party, said he is not bothered that he is not a relative of a popular individual going into the polls.

Besides Lambino, the other administration senatorial candidates are Senators Lito Lapid and Ramon Revilla Jr., radio broadcaster Rey Langit, Cabinet Secretary Silvestre Bello 3rd and Mayor Ramon Guico of Binalonan, Pangasinan, also the president of the League of Municipalities.

Orange country
Calamba, the birthplace of National Hero Jose P. Rizal, turned into a City of Orange at the kickoff rally of Villar, the presidential candidate of the Nacionalista Party (NP).

Villar and his running mate, Sen. Loren Legarda, were in high spirits with the warm reception given them and their senatorial ticket in Calamba by a sea of persons mostly clad in orange t-shirts. The main road leading to the town plaza was also festooned with orange ribbons. Orange is the campaign color of Villar.

Many in the audience came from Batangas with the picture of former Gov. Arman Sanchez printed on their t-shirts. There were also various Muslim groups, including the Association of Integrated Muslim Sector.

“This is an auspicious start of our national campaign,” Villar said before speaking at the rally at the town plaza.

Legarda said that their reception in Laguna “belied” some survey results showing them behind the Liberal Party.

Reelectionist Sen. Pia Cayetano was also upbeat with the reception they received not only in Calamba but also in Santa Rosa and Binan towns.

“Laguna is Villar country!” Cayetano raved.

Mayor Joaquin Chipeco of Calamba and his son, Rep. Timmy Chipeco of the Second District of Laguna, are both for Villar.

Former Rep. Gilbert Remulla of Cavite, one of the NP senatorial candidates, said that the Calamba rally was a showcase of the extent of their parallel organizations.

In his speech, Villar said that should he win on May 10, he would give top priority to helping many Filipinos rise from poverty.

Poor kid
He took a dig at his critics who are questioning the sources of his wealth.

“They are putting malice to my rising out of poverty. Is it unthinkable for a poor kid to become rich? I can always explain my wealth. It came from my sweat in building a prosperous company through the years,” Villar said.

Legarda and 10 senatorial candidates of the NP went to markets in Biñan and Santa Rosa before proceeding to Calamba, the most populous town in the province.

Apparently making sure that she would not suffer the embarrassment that Sen. Jamby Madrigal went through at a presidential debate on Monday, she asked vendors the prices of their goods. Galunggong (round scad) cost P120 a kilo, twice the price quoted by Madrigal.

Rep. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. of Ilocos Norte and Representatives Liza Maza and Satur Ocampo of Bayan Muna party-list are at opposite ends of the political spectrum but they shared the same stage in Calamba and even heard Mass at Saint John the Baptist Cathedral before the rally.

The officiating priest, Fr. Rene Iriga, even lauded in his homily the attendance in the same Mass of Marcos, Maza and Ocampo. He said that he used to be with the anti-Marcos group during the martial law years.

Maza said that she was fully prepared to share the same political stage with Marcos.

“This is inevitable considering that we are both in the ticket of Sen. Villar. But this does not mean that we are turning our backs on the violations of human rights during the time of [former President Ferdinand] Marcos,” she added.

The other senatorial candidates at the kickoff rally were Gwen Pimentel, Susan “Toots” Ople, Adel Tamano and Ramon Mitra 3rd. Detained Marine Col. Ariel Querubin was represented by his son while guest candidates Miriam Defensor Santiago and Revilla, both reelectionists, were absent.

Luisita farmers
In Concepcion, Tarlac, farmers took a break from work and children skipped school on Tuesday as their famous landlord, Noynoy Aquino, came home to launch his bid for the presidency.

Concepcion, nestled among sugar cane fields north of Manila, put on a festive air with yellow ribbons and marching bands in support of its native son and heir to the region’s most powerful family.

The Liberal Party presidential candidate began his official campaign in Concepcion with a Mass, where he was joined by his supporters in the province, his running mate Sen. Manuel “Mar” Roxas 2nd and the party’s senatorial candidates.

In his speech after the Mass, Aquino shared how special Concepcion was to him. He recalled that his first time to speak before the public was in the town plaza when his father, late Sen. Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino Jr., was given an award in 1976 during the martial law years.

“Sa pinakamadilim na yugto ng aking buhay, kayo dito sa Concepcion talagang pinadama niyo sa amin na hindi kami nag-iisa [During the darkest chapters of my life, the people of Concepcion made us feel that we were not alone in the fight against the dictatorship of President Ferdinand Marcos],” Aquino said.

He vowed before God to continue the legacy that his parents had started. “Dito sa tahanan ng Diyos, ako ay nangagako sa inyo na hindi ko sisirain ang pagkakakilala ninyo at pagmamahal ninyo sa aking mga magulang [I vow to God that I will not sully the good name of my parents].”

After the Mass, the LP’s candidates walked to Concepcion Market for a proclamation rally. They then proceeded to the statue of Ninoy Aqunio for a wreath laying.

After meeting with village officials of Concepcion, the LP bets went to the Capas public market via a motorcade for a rally. Later at the Tarlac City plaza, they unveiled the statue of Cory Aquino.

Ten of the LP’s senatorial slate showed up at Tarlac—former Senate President Franklin Drilon, Representatives Ruffy Biazon of Parañaque City (Metro Manila), Teofisto “TG” Guingona of Bukidnon, Risa Hontiveros Baraquel of Akbayan party-list, former Rep. Nereus ‘Neric” Acosta of Bukidnon, former Sen. Ralph Recto and Sonia Roco of Aksyon Demokratiko.

Detained Brig. Gen. Danny Lim was represented by his wife Aloy while former Sen. Serge Osmena 3rd did not show up.

Villanueva and giant flag
Brother Eddie Villanueva of Bangon Pilipinas pulled off quite a stunt at Rizal Park’s Quirino Grandstand with the unfurling of the reputedly largest Philippine flag to launch his bid for the presidency.

The evangelist was joined by running mate former Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Perfecto Yasay and senatorial bets broadcast journalists Katherine “Kata” Inocencio and Alex Tinsay, Islamic expert Dr. Zafrullah Alonto, lawyers Reynaldo Princesa and Ramoncito Ocampo, Count Habib Adz Nikabulin and educator Dr. Israel Virgines.

The party’s battlecry is “Anim na Taon na Walang Korapsyon, Ating Bansa ay Babangon [Six years without corruption for the country to progress].”

When asked on why there are only seven candidates in his slate, Villanueva said, “We have assured that our senatorial candidates are free from corruption. The remaining slots, we leave to the people while reminding them to vote based on their conscience.”

The Philippines’ biggest flag—measuring 180 meters x 92 meters—was unfurled after the party’s slate was introduced. The flag, which weighed 3.8 tons and cost almost P10 million, was first unfurled in Aritao, Nueva Vizcaya on September 16, 2006. It was created by businesswoman Grace Galindez Gupana, a supporter of Bangon Pilipinas.

‘Erap’ at Plaza Miranda
Former President Joseph “Erap” Estrada and his vice presidential bet Mayor Jejomar Binay of Makati City (Metro Manila) of the Partido ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) kicked off their bid for the Palace at the historic Plaza Miranda in Quiapo, Manila.

Vowing to bring the power back to the masses, Estrada said that if given a fresh mandate, he would continue with the pro-poor programs that he started during his term as president, which was cut short by a popular people’s uprising.

Binay said that providing basic services to the masses is possible if the right people are elected to office.

United Opposition campaign manager and former Sen. Ernesto Maceda said that they decided to hold their rally at Plaza Miranda to tap Estrada’s supporters from the grassroot.

Maceda downplayed presidential surveys that showed Estrada a distant third to frontrunners Aquino and Villar.

The former senator said that in the more than 100 trips taken by Estrada in the past two years, thousands of people turned up to air their support for the former president. He added that Estrada continues to enjoy popular support from the poor, which comprise the majority of Philippine voters.

“The thing for us to do is continue what we are doing and maintain our mass base. We have accepted the fact that so-called A-B class votes, very few of them will go to us. So we are depending on the D-E class votes to come to us,” Maceda said. “We are better off with Erap because he has already done what the others are trying to do.”

Sen. Jose “Jinggoy” Estrada and Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile also of the PMP started their campaign in Quezon City where they joined their local government candidates in giving supporters aprons bearing the party’s name.
Jefferson Antiporda, Efren L. Danao, Cris G. Odronia, Ruben D. Manahan 4th, Francis Earl A. Cueto and AFP