India, Pakistan: Right-leaning govts take stage in subcontinent’s geopolitics

THE landslide victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party, led by its controversial chief Narendra Modi, in India’s recent general elections has significant ramifications for Indo-Pakistani relations, especially as Islamabad is preoccupied with the cross-border Taliban insurgency on its western flank. Modi’s incoming government will have to balance between its need for pragmatism and its imperative to show that it has a more effective and tougher policy toward the threats emanating from Pakistan than the previous Indian government. Conversely, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s administration has a need to improve ties with India but faces massive resistance from within the security establishment. Since both governments are led by right-wing nationalists with strong opinions on religion and significant political capital in their respective countries, they are likely to make some bold moves but overall will be limited in how far they can go in terms of pushing for peace.

In some ways, the Indo-Pakistani dynamic has returned to where it was 15 years ago. In early 1999, the parties currently in power ran both governments. Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League had won a two-thirds majority in parliament in the 1997 elections, and the Bharatiya Janata Party led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee won a comfortable majority in 1998. Within months of winning the election, the Bharatiya Janata Party government moved to conduct nuclear tests, prompting Pakistan to follow suit. In May 1998, it seemed as though tensions between the traditional rivals had escalated exponentially. However, in February 1999, the relationship improved dramatically when the Indian prime minister made a historic visit to the Pakistani city of Lahore by bus and signed the Lahore Declaration, which strongly suggested that the two neighbors had finally put their acrimonious past behind them.