VIENNA: Iran’s foreign minister took to social media on Thursday (Friday in Manila) to warn that the outcome of nuclear talks with world powers was unclear, as a decisive final round began in Vienna ahead of a July 20 deadline.
“Considering the complexity and inter-connectivity of the several issues that must be agreed upon for the comprehensive agreement, it is really difficult to predict the outcome of the negotiations,” Mohammad Javad Zarif said on his Facebook page.
The accord being sought by Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, plus Germany, would finally ease fears of Tehran obtaining nuclear weapons and silence talk of war.
In exchange, punishing sanctions on the Islamic republic would be lifted.
With Sunni Islamic insurgents overrunning large parts of Iraq, and Syria in chaos from civil war, a deal could help Tehran and the West normalize relations at a particularly explosive time in the Middle East.
“In this troubled world, the chance does not often arise to reach an agreement peacefully that will meet the needs of all sides, make the world safer, ease regional tensions and enable greater prosperity,” US Secretary of State John Kerry said this week.
The so-called P5+1 powers have proposed to Iran a “series of reasonable, verifiable and easily achievable measures,” he said, warning Iran not to “squander a historic opportunity.”
The P5+1 counts the United States along with Britain, China, France, Russia and Germany.
“What will Iran choose? Despite many months of discussion, we don’t know yet,” he added.
Zarif, in a video message on Wednesday, called the talks a “unique opportunity to make history,” saying success would allow both sides to address “common challenges” such as Iraq.
But with major differences apparent after five rounds of talks seeking to secure a deal by July 20 — when an interim deal from November expires — Zarif said in French daily Le Monde that some among the P5+1 were suffering from “illusions.”
The six powers want Iran to drastically reduce its nuclear activities in order to render any Iranian drive to assemble an atomic bomb all but impossible.
This would include Iran slashing its capacities to enrich uranium, a process that produces nuclear fuel but also, at high purities, the core of a nuclear weapon.
A senior US official involved in the talks said on Thursday that Iran’s capacities to enrich uranium should be “very limited” and “a fraction” of what they are at present.
But Iran insists it has made too many advances in uranium enrichment to turn the clock back and that it needs to expand its program in order to fuel a future wave of power reactors.
Demands that Iran’s program be “radically curbed” rest on a “gross misrepresentation of the steps, time and dangers of a dash for the bomb,” Zarif said.
In theory, the July 20 deadline could be extended by up to six months, and many analysts believe this is already being negotiated.
But US President Barack Obama, facing midterm elections in November, is wary of doing anything that could be construed by Republicans as giving Iran more time to get closer to having the bomb.
This is the long-standing accusation of Israel, the Middle East’s sole if undeclared nuclear-armed state which — together with Washington — has not ruled out military action.
Michael Mann, spokesman for European Union foreign policy chief and the six powers’ lead negotiator, Catherine Ashton, told reporters he was “not aware” that an extension was being discussed.
“The atmosphere is as always very workmanlike . . . [Negotiators] come here with determination to push the process forward and reach a deal by July 20,” he said.