Iraq’s crisis changes the battle space in Syria

The conflicts in Syria and Iraq are connected. The border between the two countries has become meaningless, and the emerging crisis in Iraq has direct consequences on the fighting in Syria. Neither the Syrian regime nor the rebels that oppose it stand to gain a decisive advantage from the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant’s (ISIL, also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria or ISIS) recent actions in Iraq. As things stand now, the primary beneficiary will be the ISIL/ISIS itself.

Because of the way its military advance in Iraq has played out, the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant has earned prestige and a propaganda boost—it is viewed as a competent organization capable of decisive results. This growing perception will be crucial in the group’s ability to attract a growing share of the foreign fighters heading toward the region, and possibly draw additional Syrian rebel fighters to its ranks. The group’s seizure of weapons and vehicles—much of this equipment taken from retreating Iraqi soldiers—and reportedly more than $1 billion in funds during the recent Iraq offensive will only increase its attractiveness to jihadist fighters.