THE year 2015 is about to end and from the light that started 2015 with the visit of Papa Kiko, we witnessed the rollercoaster ride in governance (Mary Jane Veloso, Tanim Bala, death of Pamana, the INC crisis, Mamasapano clash, Lumad killings and harassment, monstrous traffic, delays in vehicle plates, balikbayan boxes, hosting of APEC, etc.), then partisan politics (how to undermine one’s political enemies and hope to hang on the coat tails of an incumbent) and the narrative of pre-campaign surveys ending the year with the victory of our very own Pia Alonzo Wurtzbach as Ms. Universe.
Of course, there was the monstrous hit known as the AlDub nation, part and parcel of Kalyeserye, leading toward the phenomenal #AlDubEBTamangPanahon. This showed to all how convergence can actually be made tying in cultural norms with a live, modern day zarzuela in dubmash fashion. It also taught followers how another station can kidnap followers and promote a seemingly correct hashtag when actually it was a diversion so as not to reach the target share of voice in social media. Interestingly, EB at the arena showed to all the power of convergence and the first ever entertainment show with no breaks.
All these events were like light and shadow. These days, there are so many light and shadow shows which play around light technology and during the holidays, we were even entertained by 3-D light and shadow presentations, making alive buildings and the like. “Shadows can be regarded as symbols in themselves. They mysteriously withhold information, abstract subject matter, and can often provoke the imagination of the viewer.” In basic form, there is a light source, there is an object and an effect. You see what you want to see or if aided, you see what they want you to see.
Freud and Jung talked about shadows and its role in psychology. According to Freud, the mind can be “divided into three parts: the id, the ego, and the superego, which respectively refer to our instincts, our reality, and morality. Often times, the id (our instinctual desires) clashes with the superego (our moral concepts) as our id seeks to fulfill our basic needs while the superego seeks to achieve the ideal.” Jung divides the individual into three parts: “the self: the shadow, or the darker, unconscious self (usually the villain in literature); the persona, or a man’s social personality (usually the hero); and the anima, or a man’s ‘soul image’ (usually the heroine).”
In Jungian’s psychology, the shadow or “shadow aspect” may refer to (1) an unconscious aspect of the personality which the conscious ego does not identify in itself, and because one tends to reject or remain ignorant of the least desirable aspects of one’s personality, the shadow is largely negative, or (2) the entirety of the unconscious, i.e., everything of which a person is not fully conscious.”
There are, however, positive aspects which may also remain hidden in one’s shadow (especially in people with low self-esteem). Contrary to a Freudian definition of shadow, therefore, the Jungian shadow can include everything outside the light of consciousness, and may be positive or negative. “Everyone carries a shadow,” Jung wrote, “and the less it is embodied in the individual’s conscious life, the blacker and denser it is.” It may be (in part) one’s link to more primitive animal instincts, which are superseded during early childhood by the conscious mind.
It is quite interesting when we use Jung in looking through and attempting to understand the 2016 elections in May. The run up is full of light and shadow operations. Is this different from the so-called smoke and mirrors operation?
Let us list the givens:
1) the incumbent Vice President is running, he has been subjected to 25 Senate hearings over a period of one year and his son has been suspended, and perpetually disqualified from holding office. Two of his accusers in the Senate, belonging to the Nacionalista Party, are both running for the VP slot with different tandems.
2) The incumbent President anointed his VP candidate in 2010, his former DOTC and DILG secretary.
3) Five persons filed their COCs, with two having disqualification cases and Comelec has ruled on one, disqualifying her from being a candidate.
4) There are approximately 55 million voters and 3.5 million voters who have no biometrics and can not vote but the biometrics system will not be operational in 2016.
5) The party in power has adopted and launched a strategy of eliminating all opponents to make it a one-on-one battle instead of its original plan of a multi candidate race, a race that has so many extraneous variables that they can’t possibly control. Their best designed plans seem unable to hold because in every scenario, they failed to build their numbers carefully and solidly.
6) The 2016 P3-trillion GAA is an election budget with “more than P930 billion allocated to automatic appropriations, Special Purpose Funds amounting to P408 billion and unprogrammed funds total P67.5 billion.”
7) The Liberal Party has transacted their way to 40 provinces unopposed (no opponents at all levels) in 2016, not because the people said so but because they designed it to be so, and therefore its candidate will have a built-in advantage and control of results. This, apart from the access to government resource and machineries.
8) About 4 million beneficiaries of CCT and other government projects are labeled as “command votes” for the candidate of the incumbent President. Do the math and if you are targeting a plurality of 16 million, those beneficiaries are alkansiya votes if they can hold on to it.
9) The strategy of the incumbent takes a page from the NoyBi playbook. That is why there are many vice presidential candidates hoping the strategy can pool other voters and swing support to the candidate of continuity.
10) And, of course, the election voting machine (the new name of PCOS)–which saw a huge disenfranchisement in 2010 and transmission issues in 2013.
The light is clear, at all cost, make Roxas win. The shadow is getting hard to control because the numbers are just not there. Do a cost-benefit from the announcement and you will see you don’t need a Wharton grad to see the big problem. The shadow will have to be the cover that will ensure the victory of Roxas and if the numbers don’t fly, scenario two is dealt with. One should remember, historically, Filipino voters split their ticket. Without Poe, her VP and Senate slate will lose the reason for their being. If Duterte is removed, same goes to Cayetano, who had a resurgence because of the decision of Duterte to run. That leaves you with Binay and two vice presidential candidates: Robredo and Marcos. Make your endgame call using the light and shadow.
Take note, there is a major yellow event in February to cash in and the final deal has to be made before April when local elections kick in. If Duterte remains in the arena, smoke and mirrors say, he will be the wild card. The dealer will have to make a move before April or else he will be holding on an empty bag of goodies, with the locals picking their champion: Binay or Duterte.
The Yellows will have to be careful on stepping on Poe and Duterte, you don’t want a consolidation of the 2007 opposition or majority of local governments going for their champs! I say, till the fat lady sings. Happy 2016!