The limits to Gulf cooperation

Despite its name, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is no stranger to tension and competition between its members. Some of these differences will doubtless come to light over the course of the 37th annual GCC summit, which kicked off on Tuesday in Manama, Bahrain. Though the GCC’s leaders gather at dozens of high-level meetings each year, the annual summit functions as a sort of state of the union, a chance for the group to flesh out its shared policy priorities. The meeting will showcase the bloc’s unity, a testament as much to the GCC’s carefully crafted image as to the ties that bind the group together. At the same time, it will highlight the underlying divisions that have always existed in the GCC.

The relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates demonstrates that the GCC is not a monolith, even when its members are strategically aligned. Though the two countries have fought side by side against the Houthi rebels in Yemen’s enduring civil war, for instance, they are increasingly at odds over how best to negotiate an end to the conflict. As the United Arab Emirates continues to progress in its efforts at economic diversification, it could emerge as a leader in the bloc, even while publicly deferring to Saudi Arabia, traditionally the GCC’s cornerstone. Egypt has recently become another area of disagreement between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. After a period of strained relations, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi was expected to meet with the Saudi king over the weekend to mend ties — under Abu Dhabi’s mediation. Stratfor sources indicate, however, that the meeting fell apart when al-Sisi refused to abide by King Salman’s demands for reconciliation: that al-Sisi publicly condemn Syrian President Bashar al Assad and that he pledge to stop supporting Syria’s military.