LP’s path to victory is politics without the science

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IN First World countries, the serious and focused web traffic during election seasons is dominated by the pollsters, statisticians, number-crunchers. People who genuinely know how elections work ignore the media chatter, especially those coming from pundits spewing hot air and those coming from the talking heads -cum -gasbags. The punditry and the broadcast bloviators, perched on their high-horses and often ill-informed on political science generate most of the noise and, take note of this, 99 percent of the predicting errors.

I have nothing against pundits and talking heads engaging in unscientific number-crunching but the stark reality is this: what they say is mostly hot air.

So when Beltway insiders cum pundits say that Hillary Clinton’s campaign is collapsing and Nate Silver says that she has – given her current numbers – an 80 percent chance of winning the Democratic primary, it is Silver’s take that is taken very seriously by political operatives. Joe Biden’s presidential dream, despite all the chatter of Hillary collapsing, cannot take off because his supporters read and believe in Silver’s numbers. The pundits have megaphones, true, but the real political scientists have very little respect for their supposed wisdom. It is mostly hot air and bluster.

This might as well be the case in the current Philippine election cycle.


The punditry’s take on Mar Roxas is representative of politics without the underlying science. Why? Because Mar Roxas cheerleaders, along with some big-name pundits, claim that Mar Roxas can still win, based on rosy but essentially faith-based scenarios. The scenarios they have been invoking, sorry for the bluntness, are all contrary to the science of politics.

Ok, what are the anchors of Mr. Roxas’ faith-based victory in 2016?

Basis Number One. The LP is a giant vampire squid that will suck the blood and energy out of the competing political coalitions. This is, the cheerleaders claim, Mr. Roxas’s primary route to victory.

This claim is essentially flawed as it assaults both polling numbers and the country’s electoral history.

Mr. Roxas’ numbers have fluctuated from a low single-digit to 15 and 20 percent of the votes in a field with just three serious contenders—he, Mr. Binay and Senator Poe. Despite the perception that the LP is a political juggernaut and most of the elected leaders are behind Mr. Roxas, his numbers have not moved, signifying the worst fate a presidential could ever face—polling numbers low and in stasis.

All polls, from the serious ones to the amateurish ones, have categorized Mr. Roxas as a potential loser. Of the three major wannabes, only he and Senator Poe have been getting positive media. Mr. Roxas has been getting mostly positive coverage. And Mr. Aquiono makes sure that The Anointed is at the front, back and center of critical state affairs. Even with that, he can’t get past the still competitive figures of frequently – slimed Mr. Binay.

The strength of the LP is overrated. When we speak of the LP now, we should remember these acronyms: KBL in the 1986 snap elections, the Laban coalition of Monching Mitra in 1992, the Lakas-NUCD-CMD coalition of Joe de Venecia in 1998, the Lakas-NUCD-CMD in 2010.

All of these giant coalitions failed to carry their presidential standard bearers. More, their candidates lost miserably to the eventual winner and were never competitive in their respective races.

Basis Number 2 is the all-out support of President Aquino to The Chosen One.

That carries weight, of course, but it is a limited one. Mr. Aquino has fervent loyalists among the business and political elite. The problem is this: this is a very limited constituency. The president of the one percent has a command over the votes of the one percent.

To the grief of the Aquino/Roxas people, Klaus Schwab and the rest of the Davos crowd and the Manila-based foreign businessmen, the people who adore Mr. Aquino, cannot vote in Philippine elections. It is a rare case of me and my neighbors and my lumpen friends having a say on our nation’s destiny. And we can state this with 100 certainty: We will not go with the Aquino candidate.

( The parachuting foreign journalists who never tire writing glowing articles about the free market and social Darwinism of Mr. Aquino sadly cannot vote.)

Basis Number 3 is the superior CV of Mr. Roxas.

While this is true, Filipino voters do not look at CVs and IQ level when they vote for their presidents. This is validated by our electoral history. Otherwise, Gibo Teodoro would have won the 2010 presidential elections. The late Raul Roco, twice my choice for president, would have won in one of his two attempts.

Right now, if nothing changes with the perception that Mr. Roxas is just an Aquino clone and is just a heartless technocrat like Mr. Aquino, the end-game for Mr. Roxas can be told by the numbers.

His LP monolith will end up like the KBL in the 1986 snap elections, the Laban of Monching Mitra in 1992 and the Lakas-NUCD-CMD in 1998 and 2010.

What else is being conveyed by the current polling numbers?

Mr. Roxas will likely end up 3rd place behind the winner and runner up. I further fear the entry of Mr. Duterte into the race. Should that happen, Mr. Roxas will end up fourth place.

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15 Comments

  1. All hell could break loose if Roxas manage to win this coming elections…. his only chance for a win is by CHEATING…. the voting populace are all well aware of this scenario so any slim chance they are thinking are doom to fail…. all note-worthy surveys projected him to finish at the tail-end of a 3-cornered or 4-cornered fight so people really don’t like him whether he agrees or not… and no amount of deodorizer will change that for the next 10 months……

    • the voting populace are all well aware
      —————————————-

      The voting populace couldn’t find their backside with both hands.

      They elect television and film stars that do nothing but loot the treasury and appoint incompetent clowns to head agencies.

  2. i would agree with your opinion mr ronquillo if smartmatic’s hocus pcos machines of andy are not in play. reality is these magical hocus pcos machnes of andy are the tools to be used in the coming elections. why do you think andy disregarded the pinoy invention tapat?? tapat will validate what you wrote – boy pickup is not winnable even with all the resources of boy sisi or boy surrender in play.

    • Agree and i really believe they are going to go for it,
      Almost every sitting senator and half the house should be in jail for stealing their pork barrel allocations.

  3. No way for LP to win in this coming election. A lot of negligence by mar roxas as mentioned above by Mr. DELL, definitely sa kangkungan dadamputin ang mga Liberal Party nitong abnoy administration.
    we will campaign hard thru netizens not to vote all liberal parties on election 2016.

  4. There is sadly a fourth basis which will eclipse all 3 bases you discussed. This should have been Basis #1 and no more other bases beyond it. It uses no pollsters, doctors in statistical science, crystal ball seers, Tarot card shufflers, palm readers, an Erice and the like. No factors of any kind affect it. It works in complete stealth. It needs just ONE person seated in front of a computer secretly located somewhere and which is connected online to two so-called Central Canvassing Servers (one at the Batasan and one most likely at PICC on the night of May 9, 2015. This is the unnamed person who will give the “keys to the kingdom” to the pre-selected candidates as instructed by the top national cheater. And what is this Basis # 4 (or #1 ?). It is called “THE PCOS SCOURGE !”

  5. Even if you mentioned his name only once, this article is still dripping with the Binay-should-be-the-next-president message. Its understandable to be impassioned by the election fever, even to the point where we forget, even if we already know, that the surveys are rigged and so is Smartmatic. What possible reason on earth can there be for the likes of Binay, Grace and Mar to be the leading presidentiables of this country, or any other country for that matter? And what explanation can there be for the 60-30-10- pattern of the last elections just mention only one anomaly? In an honest election none of these three will win, but Mar can still win if he can convince the powers-that-be behind the rigged surveys and the rigged Smartmatic computers that he should be the one. The real battle is taking place behind closed doors, not out here in the open like in an honest-to-goodness democratic election. But this is what fever does even to the wisest of men, it gives them hallucinations.

  6. Noynoy and his yellow gang’s defeat is self inflicted. From day one until today, they never cease to irritate the whole Filipino public. What amazes me is Mar’s demeanor. He’s not stupid but he is acting like one. Or talagang if one is shitting money, wala na talagang paki.

  7. eduardo a. ballon on

    I believe that given the present condition of the country where unsolved problems in traffic, Lrt & Mrt mess, BOC balikbayan boxes brohaha, unresolved mamasapano incident,unexplained missing yolanda & malampaya fund, etc.and other high profile KKK corruption , the LP annointed one will end up as tailender.

  8. BUT REMEMBER…
    Marcos won his REELECTION bid against historical improbability
    REMEMBER
    The improbability of PCOS elected winners.
    REMEMBER
    Smartmatic is still running the show.

    MAYBE IF WE ELIMINATE THE PCOS MACHINES AT PORT OF ENTRY in the Philippines. Run a traditional election with electronic quickcount, maybe Anti LP forces can do what Cory and NAMFREL supposedly did to win the election.

  9. danilo de leon on

    marlen, your prediction too is hot air. computer will decide 2016 election. just put roxas in striking distance.

  10. chuckles…

    Marlen’s banat is indeed consistent to his character – a no holds barred opinion maker.
    Decades ago, I met a political pundit and we discussed who among the political columnists and writers he reads regularly as gauge what the thinking is of the intelligentsia community.
    The chap did not blink his eye when he cited the name, Marlen Ronquillo.
    Said he, “Marlen is brilliant; but, he is also the most irreverent opinion maker I ever encountered in my lifetime”
    hahaha…
    Kudos, Marlen, for saying the stuff you are seeing in the political world.

  11. There is no way Marred Roxas can win the 2016 Presidential Election.

    Malacanang and LP have alienated the OFWs and their relatives with Bureau of Custom’s previous pronouncement of opening and taxing balikbayan boxes of OFWs. Assuming there are one million OFWs and they convince 5 of their relatives and friends not to vote for Marred Roxas, that’s 5 million votes against Roxas.

    Assuming there are 500,000 daily commuters of MRT and they convince 3 of their friends and relatives not to vote for Roxas, that’s 1.50 million votes less for Roxas.

    INC’s 2 million members voting against Marred Roxas, that’s a very significant number of votes.

    Middle income voters who supported Roxas in the 2010 election, are now disappointed with his performance as DOTC and DILG secretary under the administration of Noynoy.

    Yoland typhoon victims who felt neglected and abandoned by Marred Roxas and Noynoy will definitely vote against Roxas and the senatorial candidates of Noynoy and LP.

  12. What about stealing the next election with the same Smartmatic machines that were tampered with and had the accuracy and security features removed ?

    Seems like the LP have enough to lose (looking at Jail time) that they would go for it even with everyone aware and expecting it.