Mar facing serious problem – analyst


Results of the latest presidential preference survey of the Social Weather Stations (SWS) proved that Vice President Jejomar Binay and Sen. Grace Poe are the two serious contenders in this year’s presidential elections, a political analyst said on Friday.

The survey, according to Professor Ramon Casiple, also indicated the “unpromising” future of Liberal Party (LP) standard-bearer Manuel “Mar” Roxas 2nd.

Casiple explained that the drop in Poe’s ratings is a result of uncertainties on her candidacy brought by disqualification cases filed against her.

“That is expected because the survey was done before the Supreme Court affirmed the TRO [temporary restraining order]and the ruling of SC is very crucial because it will take away uncertainties on Poe’s candidacy,” he said.

According to him, the senator’s ratings will change next month because of affirmation by the High Court of the TRO issued by Chief Justice Maria Lourdes Sereno stopping the Commission on Elections from canceling Poe’s certificate of candidacy.

As for Binay’s high ratings, Casiple said it only indicates that the Vice President is a serious candidate who has a high chance of winning the race to Malacanang.

But among the presidential candidates, the analyst added, it is Roxas who is facing a serious problem when it comes to ratings because he is the only candidate who has not made it to the number one spot.

More disturbing, he said, is that the Liberal Party standard-bearer’s rating of 21 percent in January was even lower than his 22 percent score in December.

Casiple warned that Roxas’ numbers could further drop next month because of the reopening of the Senate investigation of the Mamasapano massacre on January 27 and the decision of President Benigno Aquino 3rd to veto the proposed P2,000 hike for pensioners of the Social Security System.

The Mamasapano tragedy that left 44 police commandos dead is considered as one of the worst leadership failures of Aquino.

The President was harshly criticized for allowing then-suspended Philippine National Police chief Alan Purisima to be involved in planning and execution of Oplan Exodus, the operation to get terrorist leader Zulkifli Bin Hir alias Marwan.

A report of the Senate Committee on Public Order led by Poe found Aquino partly responsible for the killing of the policemen by members of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and other armed groups.

Roxas was the secretary of the Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG) when the 44 Special Action Force troops were mowed down on January 25, 2015.

Casiple said Binay’s survey ratings next month could also be affected by resumption of the Senate blue ribbon sub-committee hearings on the allegedly anomalous contracts entered into by the Vice President when he was still the mayor of Makati City (Metro Manila).

The political analyst said he is more interested in the survey results that will be released next month because the choice of those who will be surveyed will be based on events that will take place this month.


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  1. I dont rely on these surveys. How come only 1200 people they will ask whom they vote? Only sira ulo voters will vote for nognog. Since 2010 election i choose mar roxas.v

  2. Not so serious for Mar or those candidates lagging behind, SWS survey and all other surveys need be given much importance as survey can be manipulated in many ways to favor certain candidates..for example, SWS to survey 5000 people (nobody knows the number except them) and select only 1200 people whose opinion are favorable to the trend results SWS intends to publish..this is just one trick and there are other ways to do it..

  3. Mar’s only chance is to build a guillotine on Luneta’s place; tell people all crooks will be coming here!

    First clients would be his best friends… So it will not happen I guess…

  4. The best survey will be done a month prior to election. Mar is still the top choice amongst intellectuals, business clubs, OFWs, government personnel, poor filipinos and military personnel.

  5. Carlos de Castro on

    Binay;s number will surely goes down once the campaign period open up. People will always be reminded of the plunder charges against him on a daily basis.I don’t think FILIPINOS is that so,dummy to vote a plunderer .