• Migration bomb

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    THOMAS Robert Malthus, an English cleric and scholar, was the first economist to propose a check on population growth to avoid famine. Malthus suggested that without restraints, the world population will increase to 256 billion within 200 years, yet the means of subsistence could only serve nine billion.

    It was a demographic bomb in 1798, a population explosion that must be contained.

    In 1998 – 200 years later – the world population was less than six billion, despite a birth rate of 18.7 per 1,000 population. In short, there are more than four babies born a minute worldwide, according to the CIA Factbook with the US posting 7.9 births per minute based on numbers from the Department of Health and Human Services. On the food supply side, scientists have discovered and genetically modified organic food. While famine is experienced in developing regions, food production was even pinpointed as the culprit of obesity in quite a few first-world nations.

    Malthus’ theory would then be considered a “bomb” – a misfired academic exercise.

    Malthus also did not envision the movement of a large number of people from one country to another in search of food and food for thought.

    Filipinos for example leave the country at the rate of about 5,000 a day. And this figure refers only to those seeking temporary work and excludes those who have applied for and been granted temporary and permanent resident visas.

    The US State Department reports that there are about four million Filipinos in America. The US admits 50,000 to 65,000 Filipino immigrants yearly. There are anywhere from 1,000 to 1,500 visitor visa applicants at the US Embassy in Manila. Of those granted visas, at least 15 percent to 20 percent overstay joining the millions of the undocumented in the United States.

    After the 1965 and 1990 immigration laws, the US admits about one million permanent residents annually. As a result, the numbers of foreign born in America increase over the decades. Filipinos are considered among the fastest to adopt and become US citizens.

    In June 2015, the Migrant Policy Institute reported that “while only 47 percent of all immigrants in the country are naturalized, the number for Asian immigrants is considerably higher at 59 percent.”

    Vietnamese and Taiwanese immigrants have the highest naturalization rates at 76 percent and 74 percent, respectively, followed by Filipinos at 68 percent; 59 percent of Koreans, 51 percent of Chinese and 47 percent of Indians.

    In 2013, there were 1.26 million naturalized Filipino American, 43,489 of who were naturalized that year.

    Two years later, the total Asian population in the United States is estimated to be over 18 million — nearly 18 times more than 1.5 million in 1970 adding to the foreign-born population in the United States.

    Since September 2001, after the New York twin tower attack, an average of 2,000 to 3,000 citizens of Afghanistan were admitted as permanent residents in the United States. So were about 1,000 yearly from Azerbaijan, 1,200 from Kazakhstan, 2,000 to 3,000 from Syria and 4,200 from Turkey.

    Refugees granted permanent residency in the US started at 3,494 in 2004, tripling in size in 2009, further increasing to 21,133in 2011, tapering off to an average of 10,000 to date.

    Meanwhile, an average of 4,000 French nationals migrated to the US from the same period above – 2004 to 2013.

    Across the Atlantic, millions of refugees including about 500,000 Syrians have migrated to Europe using the Schengen area as entry points then onward to the richer European nations.

    European citizens alarmed at what they view is a flood of potential job competitors and users of social services took to the streets to protest the EU’s plan to apportion the refugees among members of the European union.

    Part of the anti-refugee sentiment is a lingering fear of radical Islam, especially with the intensified social media campaign of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).

    While anti-immigrants in the European Union and the United States were advocating for border protection and fences to thwart those seeking asylum or safe haven, ISIS harnessed the borderless web to entice recruits from the West including the UK, France and the US.

    The response had been so successful that ISIS never had to look for body bombs from radicalized citizens and permanent residents of the UK, France and the United States.

    The immigration authorities of the West were focused on erecting borders to keep refugees and potential terrorists at bay, unaware that bombs and terror are coming from within.

    In the San Bernardino county shooting that left 14 people dead and 21 wounded, the “police named the suspects as Syed Rizwan Farook, 28, a US citizen who had worked for San Bernardino County for at least five years, and Tashfeen Malik, 27, whose nationality has not been determined. Both were killed in a police shootout following Wednesday morning’s attack.”

    Were Farook and Malik radicalized online or in-house?

    CNBC quoted the FBI’s David Bowdich that “Malik traveled to the US with a Pakistani passport, and that Farook had traveled to Pakistan. Authorities said he had also been in touch with persons of interest in the Los Angeles area who have expressed Jihadist-oriented views.”

    In Paris, it was learned days after the shooting that Omar Mostefai who helped carry out the attack on the Bataclan concert hall which killed 89 young music fans is a Frenchman. Salah Abdeslam – still on the run at time of writing – is a Belgian-born French national who took part in the attacks that killed 130 people. Another principal Islamist-Jihadist participant, Abdelhamid Abaaoud, was a Molenbeek (Belgium) resident who had left for Syria to fight for the Islamic State in early 2014 and was killed outside Paris, along with Brahim Abdeslam, who blew himself up on the boulevard Voltaire.

    ISIS has spread like virus and wildfire, putting the NATO, Russia, the US and Asian governments in a dilemma.

    Restricting the movement of Muslims, intensifying pressure on Islamic communities to spat out the terrorists among them, covert and overt discriminatory regulations among the domestic Muslim communities are all seen as pushing converts directly into ISIS ranks.

    Even Canada, known for its liberal refugee protection program, and the new liberal government under Justin Trudeau now has to take a second look at the announced campaign promise to bring in 26,000 Syrian refugees to Canada.

    Immigration laws of the US, Canada, and Europe respond to global developments, many of which are of the West’s own making.

    It’s an “Aww, shoot if you do, shoot if you don’t” dilemma. Yes Virginia, shoot happens.

    After engaging US troops in the Middle East, the US and Russia

    high-tailed back to the safety of air bombing and no-fly zone policies. Stung by critics about bringing the troops back home, the Obama administration and its European allies pulled out ground troops, left a few advisers and trainors to allow local governments to “fight their own wars, elect their own leaders an put their affairs in order.”

    In August 2010, CNN reported that “two-thirds of Americans favor President Obama’s plan to remove combat troops from Iraq by the end of the month – 69 percent – a new high.”

    According to a new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey, a majority of Americans believe that the US will never achieve its goals in that country no matter how long troops remain there. Hence, the US withdrew from the contested ground not because the US has achieved its goals in Iraq (“no more weapons of mass destruction” but because majority of Americans do not want a Vietnam-like quagmire.

    Five years later, America’s national sentiment swung back: In February this year, before the mass killing in France, downing of the Russian plane and the San Bernardino attacks, 65 percent of Americans expressed the sentiment that the ISIS is a “major threat to the US.” The same majority favor the US sending ground troops into Iraq and Syria to fight ISIS,” the February 19, 2015 issue of the Atlantic reported, citing CBS data.

    Expect an increase in deportation and exclusion enforcement- including visa and migration application denials- a predictable knee jerk reaction the effectivity of which is questionable.

    Now, even the Republicans are afraid that Donald Trump could become president as America grapples with this migration – instead of the Malthusian – bomb.

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    1 Comment

    1. Mariano Patalinjug on

      Yonkers, New York
      07 Dec 2015

      The old threat of a Malthusian bomb exploding long before his prediction that the world’s population will increase to 256 billion in 200 years, has not become a reality.
      As of now, the world’s population is estimated to be around 7 billion–which is a far cry from 256 billion.

      Nevertheless, with the earth’s total population at only 7 billion, which is a very tiny fraction of 256 billion, Mankind is already confronted by an Existential Threat posed by Global Warming and Climate Change! The earth’s carrying capacity may already have been maximized.

      Moreover, millions of people in the poor countries of the world, are now caught in the quagmire of widespread and chronic Poverty, living lives of extreme degradation and dehumanization. Famine is a daily feature in the lives of these poverty-stricken millions who, according to the World Bank, survive on just $1.25 day or even less.

      In the Philippines, out of a total population of around 107 million now, an estimated 30 million Filipinos are “poor” going by the World Bank threshold. That’s 28 percent of the total. The country’s population has been exploding at a rate which doubles it every 35 years or so: from the present 107 million, it will tend to double to around 200 million by the year 20150, and double yet again around 400 million by the year 2085–which is to assume, perilously, that by that time there will be enough space to contain all those frail, sickly and emaciated bodies! And that’s not to wonder if there will be enough food for all of them!

      Pope Francis sees a tragedy of epic dimensions on the horizon for the Philippines–and explains why he warned Filipino Catholics “NOT TO MULTIPLY LIKE RABBITS.”

      MARIANO PATALINJUG
      patalinjugmar@gmail.com