Mr. Roxas may go the way of Joe de V and Monching Mitra

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HALF of the LP’s big names that attended the bash for Mr. Roxas after his anointment had their eyes trained on the exits and doors. They wanted to flee the surreal scenes of partying and celebration that they fully knew would be followed by an impending defeat, then grief. Only Mr. Aquino, Mr. Drilon and Mr. Erice seemed to believe in their own alternative universe – that Mr. Roxas, after some hard work, will win the 2016 presidential contest.

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Indeed, the party scenes were anything but surreal. What kind of celebration is one in which electoral doom was the top-of-mind issue among the celebrators? And with a background like this: The Speaker of the House, a top LP leader, calling Mr. Roxas’\ potential rival “unstoppable.”

Mr. Roxas reminds the doubtful LP leaders, the trained escape artists of the party with ever-shifting loyalties, of the following:

Joe de Venecia in 2008 Monching Mitra in 1992

And in a different locale also holding a presidential elections in 2016, Mr. Roxas is Jeb! (just an exclamation point and no surname required), the Republican Party’s fair-haired legacy candidate who will surely be knocked out of the race by Hillary Clinton.

Why are the party’s big guns about to flee, in a massive exodus locally called balimbingan, from the candidacy of Mr. Roxas? Easy to explain.

Every polling data in the country (the skewed, the amateurish, the database-backed) shows one thing – the inevitability of Mr. Roxas’s loss in the 2016 presidential elections. No pollster, even the most pliable one, has dared list Mr. Roxas as the frontrunner because of the sheer falsity of that notion. Perhaps, in due time, the LP can commission a bogus survey outfit to show Mr. Roxas in the lead but leading the public to believe in such improbable surge would simply be, well, too improbable.

Were we to aggregate the polling data, Mr. Roxas’s presidential run would be in for more shock and embarrassment. Mr. Rody Duterte, who can take the country to World War III, is polling better than the LP’s anointed. Mr. Binay, raked over coals and tainted in smear with all the screaming headlines about his supposed acts of high corruption and plunder, will eat Mr. Roxas alive in a 2016 match-up. Over and above them is Grace Poe, who declined the invitation to be Mr. Roxas’s running mate and with the most logical of reasons. Why should she prop up the candidacy of Mr. Roxas when she is topping the presidential surveys?

What about the betting markets? We have no formal institutions that bet on presidential candidates and put real money on the line. To many in the US, these are the most accurate form of polling. But were we to have informal institutions similar to the betting markets, the bets would not go to Mr. Roxas.

The second reason is the real lack of public enthusiasm about a Roxas candidacy. The farmer in the field, the vendor in the slum colony, the jobless young man pounding the street in search of any kind of job all give you a blank stare when you ask about Mr. Roxas and his presidential run. The Mr. Palengke campaign of yore, which pushed Mr. Roxas to the top in his first senatorial elections, is gone, replaced by an image of Mr. Roxas as the Exhibit B of a heartless technocrat. Exhibit A is Mr. Aquino.

You hear people say that Ms. Poe has integrity, Mr. Binay has been unfairly savaged and that Mr. Duterte will jail all the criminals. On Mr. Roxas, the general comment is this: “Hindi mananalo yan.” This is probably the greatest tragedy of Mr. Roxas’ run – being pegged as a loser at this early stage of the game.

The third reason is this. Mr. Aquino, despite his giddiness over Mr. Roxas’ candidacy, cannot really help Mr. Roxas win. Mr. Aquino’s influence is limited. It is in whipping up enthusiasm within his party and doing everything within his means to project that a large political coalition is behind Mr. Roxas and that will make him win. The broader public has no interest in Mr. Aquino’s endorsement.

History also proves that machinery and organization are inutile in a presidential run. Let us look at the elections of 1992 and 1998.

In 1992, every political name that mattered lined up behind the candidacy of Speaker Ramon Mitra. Mr. Ramos had six congressmen and some town councilors behind him. Maid Miriam had nobody but Jun Santiago and some of the RAM boys. Monching Mitra ended fourth and could have been fifth place had Madam Imelda took her candidacy seriously.

In 1998, Joe de V. was backed by majority of the congressmen and senators and grass roots leaders plus the incumbent president. There were outliers in the polling, surveys that showed Mr. de Venecia leading Mr. Estrada by a few percentage points.

Where did Mr. de Venecia end up? A distant second. Mr. Estrada still would have won even if the 3rd and 4th placers gave up their votes to Mr. de Venecia.

Electoral history was on the minds of the LP big names who were eager to flee the celebration of the LP after Mr. Roxas’s anointment. They knew that all that hoopla was good for nothing.

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26 Comments

  1. Don’t be so sure Mr. Ronquillo about Hillary’s victory, and Jeb’s defeat. Hillary is not a very strong “leading” candidate.

  2. I will make sure that roxas don’t win in my barangay !! 1 will spend my own money .

  3. Tandaan nyo sagot ni Mar pagkatapos humingi ang Mayor ng Tacloban ng tulong dulot ng bagyong Yolanda, “You have to understand you are a Romualdez and the President is an Aquino so so we just want to legalize if not legalized well ok you are in charge we can’t help you bahala na kayo sa buhay niyo”. Ganyan ba ng style ng president ang iboboto natin. Sa kultura ng Pilipino, nagdadamayan lahat pagka oras ng sakuna. E, eto sila benggatibo kahit anong pangyayari.

  4. This is a view from a Negrense who happens to be a kababayan of Mar’s mom, Mrs. Araneta-Roxas. Although Mr. Roxas has no tainted issue in graft, same as the president himself, but selective justice is worst. Issues of graft & controversies amongst Aquino’s anointed ones such as Abaya, Abad, Ochoa, Llamas etc. were ignored by either media or ombudsman. However, if you’re an opposition, hindi ka pa naka defend ng self mo publicly convicted ka na based on the press releases of the administration and nakiki-ride on naman ang mga irresponsabling media.

    Every thing is fair in love and war, so to speak.

    Even here in Negros Occidental, maalala lang ni Mar na kababayan nya kami pag malapit na ang election.

  5. brandogandanghari on

    The Yellow Liberal Party failed to improve the lives of Filipinos except the rich and oligarchs under their yellow president. Noynoy’s endorsement is a kiss of defeat. Never again to incompetent yellow liberal party that only excels in character assasination and DAP/PDAF budget scamming. Never again to a political prty that can not even remedy simple problem like MRT/LRT transport problem. NEVER AGAIN! Never again to a rhetoric yellow president na nagsasabing “walang iwanan sa tuwid na daan” pero iniwan ang SAF44 sa gitna ng bakbakan. NEVER AGAIN TO THESE YELLOW PESTS!

  6. Aquino won because of Cory’s magic. Similarly, Grace will win because of FPJ’s magic.
    In order to win the presidency, Roxas or Binay must have a potent blackmagic – hokus pokus or abra kadabra.

  7. Am an overseas voter. Between Roxas & corrupt Binay, I will vote for Roxas, win or lost….

  8. Mr Ronquillo, Ang pagkakaiba nang endorsiyo ngayon ay ang nag-endors ay popular at walang bahid na magnanakaw na pinaniwalan nang publiko. Tingnan natin kung ano ang mangyayari at baka kainin mo ang mga salita mo.

    • Agree. Mr. Ronquillo don’t make comparison. It’s not apple to apple.
      What has happened many years ago will surely not happened next year.
      Voters can no longer be bought…like many writers or reporters.

    • @ Joeman and JRT: I believe Mr Ronquillo is correct because he is a seasoned journalist that knew the real politics in our country. You need to know more of how philippinre politics works in our country.

  9. Mr. Ronquillo , good analysis . History has its way to be written .
    BS Aquino was given an opportunity to lead our country , but he squandered it at the expense of millions of our people for his chosen few . He was just a self serving President. Mar Roxas , LP’s anointed, is exactly like him and worse. Both have no success in management and accomplishment. Heartless and Vindictive in their ways.
    I truly hope Destiny can find the right candidate to help move our country forward.

  10. Kawawa ang bansa kung mananalo si Roxas,Itutuloy lang niyas ang kagagauhan ni NOYTARD na puro da;ldal,manisi,maghiganti,manuhol,magprotekta sa KKK, magpabaya,magnoynoying at manigarilyo ang gago.Idagdag mo pa ang primado nang si Korina.Lubog lalo ang bayan.

  11. mr rongquillo, i agree with ticong. the hocus pcos machines will be the best ally that boy pickup could ask for. these magical machines are under the control of boy sisi via andy who seems enamored, like white hair, with the hocus pcos machines. of course the massage surveys could not help boy pickup in reality but these massaged surveys would be the cue to start the magic that the pcos machines are capable of.

  12. What about the PCOS Machine? Is it reliable enough to declare the TRUE winning candidates?

  13. Karma ang mangyayari ki Mar DAHIL sa Lahat ng palpak at kasinungalingan ginawa nya at sa pagmumura Nya Kay GMA noon

    • Nadia, hay naku thanks for joining the crowd of supporters of “kadiliman”, galing naman ni GMA mo at ni Fat Guy, mga inapi sabi mo nga. Sila ang kinakarma kasunod ni Nognog. Dapat lang sa bilangguan at electric chair pulutin ang mga corrupt na politico. Remember, the saying: ” For who the gods wish to destroy they make him/her crazy first”. That captioned GMA as a convicted by the courts…kaya pala si Nognog forming alliance kuno kay GMA….Well well, birds of the same feathers flock together.
      I only bet on Panfilo “Ping” Lacson as the man fit to be the 2016 president and lead the country to peace, prosperity and dignity. All the others are wannabes and permanent members of NATO (No Action Talk Only). For all the accusations thrown at Lacson to besmirch his repute and the persecution at the hand s of your “saintly GMA” (cos of Lacson expose on the highest corruption of the conjugal tandem), all these were thrown out by the courts of law. None can be said about your GMA, dare to turn a blind eye. I would go for the tandem of Lacson + Leni Robredo or Lacson+Vilma Santos or Lacson + BongbongMarcos tandem for 2016. As for Digong Duterte its a ????

  14. Kaya iyung mga kamag-anak namin, hindi daw sila boboto. Eh tapos na ang eleksiyon, alam na kung sino ang mananalo. Boodle-fight!!!!

  15. Mr.Ronquillo yung mga taga palakpak ngayon ni Roxas ay dating taga palakpak nina Mitra at de Venecia. Kung ako si Roxas mag iingat ako sa mga taga palakpak niya, pera lang ang inaantay nila para sa sarili nilang kandidatura. Kung baga sa sabong isasabong ka nila maski talo ang manok ang mahalaga panalo naman sila sa pusta.

  16. Roxas is really a hard sell even overseas voters like me is not even going for Roxas , Binay is more popular and better choice despite all the dirt being hurled against him

    • I am also an OFW for 30+years. I am not sure where you get your information but surely between the candidates , Mar appears to be the most qualified…. Hence, we are all for Mar Roxas!!! Binay wanted all his family in the government. Walang dilekadesa..puro kaibigan insik. Tiu, Chang, Limlingan, etc.

  17. Amnata Pundit on

    And Binay and his wife like GMA and her husband will go the way of Bonnie and Clyde?

  18. Noynoy Aquino is sure to go to jail in 2016, once he steps down from Malacanang. The odds is against Mar Roxas. He has very little chance of winning the election if the election is clean and there is no cheating.

    • Let Pnoy spend few nights in Times Street before heading to jail.
      At this point in time he should start thinking what would be his illness to qualify him for hospital arrest.

  19. Roldan Guerrero on

    A very precise analysis…so Mr. Aquino`s wish to be detained in Fort Santiago is almost at its reality. What would he expect from Drilon, Abad, Belmonte and the pretending LPs who were all BALIMBINGS from GMA do? I bet all will point their fingers to him…..Poor PIGNOY, he will surely suffer worst than what he did to GMA, Corona, the three Senators and many victims of his vindictiveness. GOODLUCK TO THE MOST STUPID AND WORST PRESIDENT THIS REPUBLIC EVER HAD!