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A dangerous game of brinkmanship has developed over
Iran’s seizure of 15 British marines and sailors on March 23.
Tehran claims that the British patrol strayed into the Iranian side
of the narrow waterway between Iraq and Iran. London maintains that
the patrol was in Iraqi waters.
The crisis deepened last week
after Iran released videos of the detained Britons apologizing for
the incursion. There were also letters purportedly written by the
only woman in the group stating that she had been “sacrificed”
to the policies of Britain and the United States.
For all their propaganda value,
the detainees’ “confessions” are dubious at best. Captives are
always at the mercy their captors. Confessions could be extracted
under duress.
Iran has said it has started a
“legal process” to determine what to do with its British
captives. That could be a broad hint from Iranian authorities that
they are prepared for a drawn-out confrontation. Britain, on the
other hand, is demanding that immediate release of its servicemen,
and it is rallying the international community to its cause.
Who will blink first? Iran has
staunchly resisted calls to resolve the crisis, not only from
Britain and its western allies, but from influential voices in the
Islamic world as well. The Saudi foreign minister, for one, has
called the detention of the British sailors “a catastrophe” for
Iran. That apparently didn’t dent Tehran’s resolve to hold on to
its British captives.
Iran has successfully played the
brinkmanship game before. It has not bowed to international pressure
for it to suspend its nuclear enrichment program and refused UN
inspection of its facilities. It knows the western powers could do
nothing more than dangle the threat of diplomatic and economic
sanctions. And it is confident Britain or the US would never go
beyond saber-rattling.
Iran will no doubt release the
British servicemen but it will not be soon. The Iranian leaders know
that time is on their side. More significantly, Iran wants to
project the perception that it is calling the shots, not Britain,
not the US, not Saudi Arabia. Iran has ambitions of installing
itself as the dominant force in the Middle East, and it cannot
afford to show signs of weakness in facing up to the superpowers of
the west.
That’s what makes the game
dangerous. Already the standoff has boosted the price of oil in the
world market; last week fuel prices in the Philippines went up by 50
centavos.
For now Britain has taken a less
hostile stance, preferring instead to go to diplomatic channels in
trying to bring home its lost patrol. The US, however, has responded
to the crisis by holding war games in international waters off Iran.
Brinkmanship is trying to push
your opponent closer to the edge without letting him fall. Iran had
better realize, before it’s too late, it could only push its foes
so far.
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