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The administration’s Team Unity is confident that,
at the very least, seven of its senatorial candidates will make it
to the Magic 12 on May 14.
Preposterous, you might say.
After all, results of the latest surveys conducted by the
country’s most respected pollsters show the Genuine Opposition
fashioning a virtual sweep—that is, if the senatorial elections
were held the day the respondents’ choices were recorded.
But to borrow a phrase from
William Makepeace Thackeray’s A Legend of the Rhine, “betwixt
the lip and the raised wine-cup there is often many a spill.”
The midterm elections are still
over two months away. Many variables that the surveys do not—and
can never—take into account could throw the pollsters’
projections way off the mark.
Last Thursday, for instance, the
Commission on Elections reported that 68,000 candidates throughout
the archipelago have submitted their certificates to run for about
17,000 local government and congressional posts.
The aspirants are legion and the
posts up for grabs numerous. However, in many provinces,
congressional districts, municipalities and cities there are no
local candidates who officially belong to the Genuine Opposition.
In fact, in over half of the
provinces, congressional districts and cities only the two political
parties supporting the administration of President Arroyo—Lakas-CMD
and Kampi—have managed to field local bets.
A published report quotes Rey
Roquero, Lakas-CMD executive director, as saying that the two
parties have put up common candidates in 38 provinces, 109
congressional districts and 57 cities.
The other localities have been
declared “free zones”—which should probably be more
appropriately called “free-fire zones”—but only between
candidates of the two administration parties.
But whether or not there are
common candidates or free zones, all of the political protagonists
are expected to support Team Unity’s senatorial slate.
In a recent huddle with newspaper
columnists, Gov. Ben Evardone of Eastern Samar explained that what
will carry Team Unity’s bets into the Magic 12 are what he called
“X factors.”
First and foremost among these
factors is grass-roots support. “Several provincial governors,
big-city mayors, town mayors, vice-governors and councilors have all
pledged to support the 12 candidates of Team Unity,” said Evardone,
who is in charge of the administration slate’s media bureau.
“No one will be left behind,”
he stressed.
Describing as “mostly token”
the competition put up by the opposition in many areas, Evardone
said that local government leaders as well as regional and
provincial heavyweights allied with the administration can focus on
campaigning for Team Unity candidates full time.
“They can give their
100-percent effort to make sure the TU candidates win in their
respective areas,” said Evardone, who is himself able to focus on
supporting the administration’s senatorial slate because there is
no serious challenger to his reelection bid in Eastern Samar.
Evardone cited other examples,
including Mayor Rodrigo Duterte of Davao City and Gov. Eric
Aumentado of Bohol, who are “concentrating on a 12-0 win for Team
Unity.”
The administration’s senatorial
ticket “is sure to snag 12-0” in such vote-rich provinces as
Pampanga, Pangasinan, Negros Occidental, Cebu and Iloilo.
With this intense level of
commitment and support, Evardone said the least number of Team Unity
candidates that can inch into the list of winners is three—in
addition to the apparent shoo-ins Ralph Recto, Edgardo Angara,
Vicente Sotto 3rd and Joker Arroyo.
The Genuine Opposition has to win
every precinct in Metro Manila to be competitive, Evardone said.
“But even in Metro Manila, the GO has massive presence only in
three areas: Makati, San Juan and Navotas.”
The rest of the cities and towns
of the capital region are led by incumbents allied with Team Unity.
“Every vote, realistically, is a toss-up in Metro Manila, the
supposed turf of the GO,” Evardone said.
Seemingly small but very critical
details can make the difference between victory and defeat. On this
score, Evardone said the Team Unity candidates have a major
advantage.
“The get-out-and-vote effort,
the delivery of sample ballots, the smooth coordination between ward
leaders and the voters will spell the difference for Team Unity on
election day.”
Even before the current campaign
got under way, the administration has been saying that its
“machinery” will blunt the opposition’s survey-certified
popularity on May 14.
Team Unity officials predicted,
however, that as voting day draws near even the preelection surveys
will begin to show their candidates grabbing more spots in the
winners’ circle.
We will find out soon enough if
they are correct.
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