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The world’s top climate scientists were gathering
here Monday to hammer out the summary of a massive report that
predicts dire consequences from global warming, especially for poor
nations and species diversity.
Even if dramatic measures are
taken to reduce the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions that drive
warming, temperatures will continue to climb for decades to come,
the experts conclude.
By 2080, according to the report,
it is likely that 1.1 to 3.2 billion people worldwide will
experience water scarcity, 200 to 600 million will be threatened by
hunger, and each year an additional two to seven million will be
victims of coastal flooding.
The brunt of these problems will
fall squarely on to the world’s poorest inhabitants, who are least
to blame for the fossil-fuel pollution that drives global warming.
According to a final draft of the
1,400-page report obtained by AFP, hundreds of millions of people
living in more than three dozen deltas—including the Nile in
Egypt, the Red River in Vietnam and the Ganges-Brahmaputra in
Bangladesh—are likely to find themselves wedged between rising sea
levels and more frequent flooding.
Tropical diseases are likely to
spread as well.
The impact will be all the more
devastating because most of these countries lack the money and
skills to adapt to the threat.
Indeed, if global temperatures
rise no more than 2ºC (3.6 ºF) compared to 1990s levels, northern
Europe and North America may even enjoy higher crop yields, milder
winters and expanding forests.
The report by the UN’s
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will be unveiled on
Friday after its members have approved a roughly 50-page summary for
policymakers.
It assesses the past and future
impact of rising temperatures on the planet’s physical and
eco-systems and inhabitants. It also evaluates the capacity to adapt
to the predicted changes.
In February, the IPCC issued a
first volume of its review with an assessment of the scientific
evidence for global warming. It predicted temperatures would
probably rise between 1.8 to 4.0ºC (3.2-7.2ºF) by century’s end.
A final volume, due to be released in early May, will discuss how
warming can be mitigated.
Besides the impact on human
society, climate change will also have far-reaching consequences for
the planet’s biodiversity, the Brussels report will say.
It predicts that 20 percent to 30
percent of species will be threatened with extinction if
temperatures rise 1.5 to 2.5 C (2.7ºF to 4.5ºF), on the lower side
of end-of-century forecasts.
If temperatures rise by 4ºC (7.2ºF),
“few ecosystems will be able to adapt,” says the report.
Compiled to help governments make
policy choices, the report will probably sharpen debate on a range
of global-warming issues.
“The developing countries will
certainly point out the huge gap between regions, and make it known
that they need help,” said a Western delegate involved in the
drafting.
“This is true even if the
IPCC’s role is to make a diagnosis, not to address questions of
financing.”
Policymakers may also be divided
on how much money should go to adaptation and how much toward
mitigation, even if experts have made it clear that both are
essential.
--AFP
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