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In the 2004 elections the administration coalition
K-4 won almost 90 percent of all governor, congressman and mayor
positions. That overwhelming dominance in the local races helped
propel Gloria Arroyo and Noli de Castro to the top two posts in the
country, plus seven K-4 senatorial candidates into the Magic 12.
Will the administration’s
six-party alliance—Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrats (Lakas-CMD),
Kabalikat ng Mamamayang Pilipino (Kampi), National People’s
Coalition (NPC), Liberal Party (LP faction of Manila Mayor Lito
Atienza), Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino (LDP) and Partido
Demokratiko-Sosyalista ng Pilipinas (PDSP)—repeat the K-4 feat on
May 14, and can it swing the senatorial battle in TEAM Unity’s
favor? Let’s do the math.
Of 81 provincial governors in the
country, all but four are with the administration. So are 194 of the
219 district congressmen and nine out of every 10 mayors. Well over
half of these incumbents are running for reelection: 49 governors,
115 congressmen and two-thirds of all mayors. Hence, besides
controlling nearly all local government units (LGUs), most
provincial, city and municipal leaders of the ruling coalition will
be hitting the hustings for themselves and the coalition ticket.
Even more telling are the
administration LGU and congressional candidates with weak or no
rivals from opposition parties. With the latter not contesting some
60 percent of 18,000 positions at stake, administration candidates
for governor in 78 of 81 provinces, for congressman in 192 of 219
districts, and for mayor in 29 of 36 independent cities are deemed
almost sure winners.
Hence, in most places, only
administration candidates have mounted significant local campaigns
with rallies, local media projection, posters, leaflets and sample
ballots, house-to-house visits, building of support among local
leaders, communities and sectors, pollwatching and voter
mobilization. Even in constituencies with no single administration
candidate, rivals from allied parties like Lakas, Kampi, LP-Atienza
and NPC must all plug TEAM Unity to get coalition funds and campaign
support.
How will the administration’s
dominance in local campaigning affect the Senate race? The chorus of
dominant local candidates cannot but swing many voters over,
especially the majority who do not have all 12 senatorial slots
filled in their minds. A recent Social Weather Stations survey says
that one-fifth of Filipinos believe people in their area would vote
as local political bosses urge. With at least five TEAM Unity
candidates within 12 percentage points of the Magic 12 cutoff , a
“command vote” of as much as 20 percent could very well lift
them into the winners’ circle.
Sample ballots and grassroots
voter mobilization would further boost the administration slate.
Many people ride vehicles provided by local candidates to get to
polling places. In many areas only the administration coalition is
equipped for transport, and its buses and trucks will of course
concentrate on its supporters.
Then there is the hugely
influential sample ballot. There is loose talk that more than 200
million are being printed—five for every registered voter and
nearly all of it for the administration coalition. As seasoned
election campaigners and watcher know, voters use sample ballots to
fill as many of the 12 blanks for senator in the actual sheet, since
most people cannot remember all the candidates’ names. Thus, being
on millions of voting lists distributed by the great majority of
local candidates confers a mega-plus to TEAM Unity.
Can the dominance of Coalition
TEAM Unity offset the apparent lead of opposition candidates in
voter preferences as measured by surveys? This writer won’t make
the mistake of those who pronounce likely outcomes based on one
variable, be it survey results or coalition dominance. As always,
the Magic 12 will emerge in the interaction of many factors,
including voter impressions, party machinery, influential
supporters, media exposure, election day mobilization, and sample
ballots.
More predictable are the local
elections. The administration will win most races, since the
opposition is not contesting 60 percent. Should 200 House seats go
to the ruling coalition, that might be enough to block another
impeachment bid. If it also controls the Senate, the continuity of
national leadership till 2010 would lay a solid foundation for
social stability, investor confidence, and economic advancement, and
not return the country to disruptive protests and politicking.
The choice on May 14 is clear.
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