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Recurring shortages and higher energy prices will be
the norm in the near future, not only in the Philippines but also in
many other countries in Asia and the world.
This was the conclusion reached
by several separate international studies released recently.
“Because the world’s
population is growing and living standards are rising worldwide,
energy consumption globally is expected to rise by more than 50
percent over the next 25 years,” according to a 476-page study
released by the National Petroleum Council (NPC) in Washington last
week.
The NPC is a federal advisory
committee to the US energy secretary.
The study, “Facing the Hard
Truths About Energy,” notes that finding supplies to match growth
in energy consumption will be increasingly difficult and will
require huge new investments in coming decades.
For its part, the Paris-based
International Energy Agency (IEA) says the world “is facing twin
energy-related threats: that of not having adequate and secure
supplies of energy at affordable prices and that of environmental
harm caused by consuming too much of it.
“The current pattern of energy
supply carries the threat of severe and irreversible environmental
damage—including changes in global climate, says the 2006 World
Energy Outlook (WEO) published by the IEA.
“Soaring energy prices and
recent geopolitical events have reminded us of the essential role
affordable energy plays in economic growth and human development,
and of the vulnerability of the global energy system to supply
disruptions,” says the report.
Today, 2.5 billion people use
wood, charcoal, agricultural waste and animal dung to meet most of
their daily energy needs for cooking and heating. There are still
1.6 billion people in the world without electricity.
In a scenario presented by the
WEO, the number of people using biomass will increase to 2.6 billion
by 2015 and to 2.7 billion by 2030 as population rises.
The WEO confirms that fossil-fuel
demand and trade flows, and greenhouse-gas emissions would follow
current unsustainable paths through 2030 in the absence of new
government action—the underlying premise of what it calls its
Reference Scenario.
It also demonstrates, in an
Alternative Policy Scenario, that a package of policies and measures
that countries around the world are considering would, if
implemented, significantly reduce the rate of increase in demand and
emissions. Importantly, the economic cost of these policies would be
more than outweighed by the economic benefits that would come from
using and producing energy more efficiently.
Global primary energy demand in
the Reference Scenario is projected to increase by just over
one-half between now and 2030—an average annual rate of 1.6
percent. Demand grows by more than one-quarter in the period to 2015
alone.
Over 70 percent of the increase
in demand of the projection period comes from developing countries,
China alone accounting for 30 percent.
Their economies and population
grow much faster than in the Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development (OECD), shifting the center of gravity of global
energy demand.
Almost half of the increase in
global primary energy use goes to generating electricity and
one-fifth to meeting transport needs—almost entirely in the form
of oil-based fuels.
Globally, fossil fuels will
remain the dominant source of energy to 2030 in both scenarios. In
the Reference Scenario, they account for 83 percent of the overall
increase in energy demand between 2004 and 2030.
As a result, their share of world
demand edges up, from 80 percent to 81 percent. The share of oil
drops, though oil remains the largest single fuel in the global
energy mix in 2030. Global oil demand reaches 99 million barrels per
day (mb/d) in 2015 and 116 mb/d in 2030—up from 84 mb/d in 2005.
Coal is expected to post the
biggest increase in demand in absolute terms, driven mainly by power
generation. China and India account for almost 4/5 of the
incremental demand for coal, which remains the second-largest
primary fuel, its share in global demand increasing slightly.
China alone is responsible for
about 39 percent of the rise in global emissions. China’s
emissions more than double between 2004 and 2030, driven by strong
economic growth and heavy reliance on coal in power generation and
industry.
China will overtake the US as the
world’s biggest emitter before 2010. Other Asian countries,
notably India, also contribute heavily to the increase in global
emissions. The per-capita emissions of non-OECD countries
nonetheless remain well below those of the OECD.
The share of natural gas in
global energy demand will continue to rise, even though gas use
grows less quickly due to higher prices.
Hydropower’s share of primary
energy use rises slightly, while that of nuclear power falls.
The share of biomass falls
marginally, as developing countries increasingly switch to using
modern commercial energy, offsetting the growing use of biomass as
feedstock for biofuels production and for power and heat generation.
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