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BANGKOK: In the downtown night market here, Ratporn Supsong sells
wooden statues of Buddha that the faithful believe will bring them
good fortune and protect them from harm.
But the 44-year-old says she is pinning her
hopes for a peaceful future on Thailand’s first referendum next
weekend, when the military-backed government will ask voters to
approve a new constitution.
“I will go to vote and I will vote yes,
because I don’t want the political situation to get worse,” she
said.
The August 19 referendum only asks voters to
approve or reject the charter, but the military sees it as much
more—a vote on the legitimacy of the coup that ousted elected
premier Thaksin Shinawatra last September.
Generals have tried to play up the idea that
they staged a popular coup, because of the warm welcome that many in
Bangkok gave soldiers when they seized power, ending months of anti-Thaksin
protests and political turmoil.
But for people outside Bangkok, especially in
rural areas where Thaksin enjoyed immense popularity, the referendum
will be their first chance to deliver a verdict on the coup.
The junta isn’t risking much with the
balloting—the generals have vowed to impose a new charter even if
voters reject the proposed draft.
They want to win a strong majority, as the vote
would be seen as a stamp of approval for their takeover, reducing
the risk of further turmoil, political analyst Thitinan Pongsuhirak
said.
“If there is a low turnout, less than 50
percent, it doesn’t give them very much legitimacy,” he said.
“A no vote is not good for the people in
power. They want to see a high turnout for a ‘yes.’”
To do that, the army-installed government is
doing everything it can.
A three-day weekend has been declared and the
junta has convinced bus and train operators to halve their fares so
that millions of migrant workers, who have to leave jobs in the city
and return to their hometowns to cast ballots, can do so.
All of Thailand’s 700,000 security officers
have been ordered to join a get-out-the-vote campaign, which has
included men in green Martian-looking
masks passing out flyers on the streets of
Bangkok to startled passersby.
Polls seem to indicate that voters are resigned
to the constitution.
A national survey released last week by
Chulalongkorn University found that 78 percent of respondents said
they would vote to approve the charter, even though only 47 percent
are satisfied with it.
Opponents say the proposals will grant the
military continued political influence by taking power away from
elected officials and giving it to bureaucrats.
But they have had a tough time getting their
message heard, stifled in part by a law that threatens 10 years in
prison to anyone who “misrepresents” the charter.
Thaksin’s allies have led protests in Bangkok
against the charter, but they have failed to gain any momentum,
rarely attracting more than a few thousand people. The protests have
taken an even lower profile since one rally in late July turned
violent, with 100 people injured in clashes with police.
Hardly any advertisements are up either for or
against the charter. Only a few taxi drivers have stuck “vote
no” stickers in their windows.
Martial law imposed after the coup remains in
effect across half of Thailand, making campaigning difficult outside
the capital.
Many Thais like Ratporn and all the main
political parties seem less focused on the charter, with their
sights set on general elections that the military has promised to
hold by year’s end.
“More people are willing to just move on,
especially in the urban centers,” said Thitinan.
The lack of enthusiasm could also be because
Thais have learned not to rely on the permanence of their
constitutions. The new one would be the 18th seen in the country
over the last 75 years.
“We’ve had a lot of constitutions. It’s
possible we could just get a new one in five years,” said a
35-year-old man selling Thai kickboxing gear at the market.
--AFP
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