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BANGKOK: Thailand is now waiting in anxiety for Sunday’s general
election, the first after last year’s military coup that ousted
former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, which is expected to end
the 15-month rule of the junta-appointed interim government and
unveil a new political picture.
However, the picture is not necessarily one of
reconciliation as some expect, because the conflicts between the
pro-Thaksin and anti-Thaksin, between the anti-coup and the pro-coup
and between the grass-root and the elite forces still exist.
The two main parties contesting the election,
the Democrat Party led by Abhisit Vejjajiva and the People Power
Party (PPP) headed by Samak Sundaravej, are now running nip and
tuck. Several early polls found that the two rivals may respectively
win some 150 of the total 480 parliament seats. Therefore, the two
leaders both claimed they will grab the top job at the Government
House.
It is never easy to be a premier. Local critics
said that whoever becomes the next prime minister, the enduring
crisis could not be eased in short time, and even worse, new tension
could possibly be introduced.
If the PPP wins the election, it might trigger
more anti- Thaksin street protests, as seen last year before the
coup.
PPP leader Samak, a former Bangkok Governor and
a veteran politician who has a nickname of “iron mouth” which
describes his eloquence, has openly declared himself as a nominee
for Thaksin. He said the PPP had a clear mission to save
Thaksin from corruption charges imposed by junta-appointed
investigation agencies, and grant amnesty to the 111 Thai Rak Thai (TRT)
party executives, who were banned from politics for five years after
the TRT was disbanded at a court verdict on electoral fraud charges
this May.
The military would not like to see the PPP seize
the power, which will turn last year’s military coup into a farce
— by deposing Thaksin from premiership and allowing his proxy to
sit on it over one year after.
If the Democrat Party, led by young politician
Abhisit, wins the election, many grass-root people from the North
and Northeast, strongbase for the former TRT party, may express
their anger by demonstrations.
Abhisit, in his 40s, is seen by some as too
young and lacking political experience.
Kanin Bunsuwan, a charter drafter, predicted
that an Abhisit- led government would be unstable.
He said since the Democrat Par-ty is unlikely to
win more than half of the parliament seats, Abhisit would get the
chance to lead the government only if he could win the backing of
at least four or five other parties, which would leave him with
weakened bargaining power.
“It would be the least powerful, if not
powerless, government that couldn’t do anything to solve the
country’s problems. I think it would be a very short-lived
government, not more than six months,” he said.
The Democrat Party will be in a worse situation
if it gets the chance to run the government but fails to fix the
country’s problems, he said.
The challenge to bring reconciliation back to
the country will not be an easy task for whoever wins the polls,
observers said.
-- Xinhua
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