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The New Year will certainly be spiced up with
interesting (or troubling?) developments as key personalities of the
Fourteenth Congress lay the groundwork for their expected stab at
higher posts in the 2010 election.
I don’t buy the claims of known
presidential hopefuls that 2010 is still too far away to merit
attention, for their actions belie these. I know that a number of
them, mostly senators, have already started moving to enhance their
chances in the upcoming election, and I predict that their
activities will intensify in 2008.
I believe that the rivalry
between Senate President Manuel Villar and Sen. Mar Roxas will
become more intense next year. Villar, president of Nacionalista
Party, and Roxas, president of the Liberal Party, are expected to
slug it out in the 2010 presidential election, but the Senate will
provide the initial arena for their pre-election rivalry.
Senate coups
The intensified rivalry between
Villar and Roxas will necessarily involve attempts to unseat Villar.
The Office of the Senate President has built-in advantages in a
national contest and Roxas or his followers are expected to clip
these advantages. And as long as the Senate remains productive,
Villar will hog the limelight and be given most of the credit. I
note that while Villar crowed over the Senate’s passage of 8 of 9
priority measures of the Legislative-Executive Development Advisory
Council, Roxas remained unimpressed and commented that the Senate
should have accomplished more.
Any attempt to oust SP Villar,
however, takes a lot of planning and mouth-watering QPQ or quid pro
quo. The majority led by Villar has 16 members, compared to eight
(including detained Sen. Antonio Trillanes 4th) of the minority to
which Roxas belongs. That he was able to assemble such an impressive
majority indicates that Villar is no pushover.
Villar has shown remarkable
political acumen in winning the support of former President Joseph
Estrada despite his key role in the House impeachment, and of
Erap’s son, Sen. Jinggoy. Although he ran in 2007 as opposition
candidate, administration senators supported him because they did
not consider him as a knee-jerk oppositionist.
Roxas had shown in the 2004
senatorial election which he topped that he knew how to maximize
media exposure. This early, he is surrounded by topnotch writers who
churn out meaningful and timely stories every day. He gets to talk
to media at least twice each session day, unlike Villar who is
usually interviewed a few minutes before the start of the session.
The guerrillas
Villar and Roxas should be
forewarned that while they are competing against each other, they
must not ignore other senators who could slip past them, like Sen.
Loren Legarda, Ping Lacson and Dick Gordon.
Loren, who has been leading
surveys on people’s choice for president, has been very quiet.
However, she maintains that she is ready to run any time. Ping has a
personal organization and avid supporters from the Chinese
community. Dick, although partyless, has many out-of-the-box
proposals that would appeal to those who want a forward-looking
leader. Dick scored a PR coup on his recent visit to Cebu where his
call for Good Governance or G-G became a battle cry for a
Gordon-Garcia tandem. Garcia is Cebu Gov. Gwen Garcia, a leader of
Kampi.
Political realignment
Several months back, I wrote in
this column that Lakas would make up for its dearth of presidential
wannabes by coalescing with a party with a strong contender. My
crystal ball says that that party will be the Nacionalista Party of
Villar. Speaker Jose de Venecia Jr., president of Lakas, will try to
be a king-maker before he ends his third and last term at the House.
Villar’s NP is the most logical choice since Villar, a former
speaker, still commands a strong following at the House. JdV,
however, must watch his back as I predict a more concerted effort to
unseat him in 2008.
The direction of the Nationalist
People’s Coalition will be determined by the political plans of
Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, the favorite nephew business
magnate Eduardo Cojuangco, the party’s founder and president
emeritus. Since the 1998 presidential election, the NPC had not
endorsed any presidential candidate and thus claimed support for
whoever won. This might no longer be so in 2010 should Teodoro seek
a national office. The NPC will then go all-out for whatever ticket
Teodoro would join. I know that several admirers of Teodoro believe
that he is a presidential material. However, I think that Teodoro
should first seek a Senate seat or at most be a vice presidential
candidate before eyeing Malacañang.
If Loren or Ping, who both ran in
2007 under the NPC banner, could get Teodoro as running-mate or
senatorial candidate, then they are certain to get the full
endorsement of the party.
efrendanao2003@yahoo.com
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