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HERBERT MEYER was the first senior
official of the US government to predict the disintegration of the
Soviet Union. For this feat he was awarded the US National
Intelligence Distinguished Service Medal, the highest honor in the
American intelligence community. Under President Ronald Reagan,
Meyer served as special assistant of the Director of Central
Intelligence and vice-chairman of the CIA’s National Intelligence
Council.
Meyer later
parlayed his record as one of America’s top intelligence analysts
into a career as a consultant and writer. He has authored several
books; his views are highly regarded by conservative American
businessmen. He was also an associate editor of Fortune magazine.
In a recent
article—titled “What in the world is going on? A global
intelligence briefing for CEO’s,”—Meyer tackles four major
transformations that, taken individually or in combination, will
produce radical changes on how to do business worldwide. These
transformations arise from the war in Iraq, the emergence of China,
shifting demographics of Western civilization and the restructuring
of American business.
Each of these
developments will give rise to monumental changes, but it is
Meyer’s discussion of shifting demographic patterns in the US,
Europe, Japan and elsewhere that drew this column’s keenest
interest. His forecasts in the area of population seem to have the
greatest relevance to countries like the Philippines.
Obsessed
with sex but . . .
“Most
countries in the Western world have stopped breeding,” Meyer
wrote. “For a civilization obsessed with sex, this is
remarkable.”
For nations to
maintain a steady population, they need a 2.1 birthrate. Western
Europe currently stands at 1.5, or 30 percent below replacement.
“In 30 years there will be 70 to 80 million fewer Europeans than
there are today.”
When societies
do not produce enough young workers to replace the old, they resort
to importing workers from other places. Most of the migrant workers
in Europe come from Muslim nations. Ten percent of the populations
of France and Germany, for example, now consist of Muslims.
“However,
the [Muslim] populations are not being integrated into the cultures
of their host countries, which is a political catastrophe,” Meyer
wrote. “One reason Germany and France don’t support the Iraq war
is they fear their [Muslim] populations will explode on them.”
In the
Netherlands over half of all births will be non-European in a mere
13 years from now.
“The huge
design flaw in the postmodern secular state is that you need a
traditional religious society birth rate to sustain it,” Meyer
wrote. “The Europeans simply don’t wish to have children, so
they are dying.”
Japan
shutting down
A similar
trend is evident in Japan, which has a 1.3 birthrate. Result: It
will lose up to 60 million people over the next 30 years.
Unlike Western
Europe, however, the Japanese are extremely reluctant to accept
foreign workers. “Instead, they are just shutting down,” Meyer
said. “Japan has already closed 2,000 schools, and is closing them
down at the rate of 300 per year.”
The aging of
the Japanese population has been very rapid. One of every five
Japanese will be at least 70 years old by 2020. What is to be done
about such demographics, nobody knows.
Europe and
Japan are not merely in recession, they are shutting down, Meyer
wrote. “This will have a huge impact on the world economy, and it
is already beginning to happen.”
Why are the
birth rates so low in two of the world’s major economic engines?
“There is a
direct correlation between abandonment of traditional religious
society and a drop in birthrate, and Christianity in Europe is
becoming irrelevant,” Meyer noted.
The other
reason is economic.
“When the
birthrate drops below replacement, the population ages,” Meyer
said. “With fewer working people to support more retired people,
it puts a crushing tax burden on the smaller group of working age
people.”
Downward
spiral
A major
outcome: young people delay marriage and having families.
“Once this
trend starts, the downward spiral only gets worse,” Meyer said.
“These countries have abandoned all the traditions they formerly
held in regards to having families and raising children.”
With a 2.0
birth rate, the United States has been able to raise its population
because of immigration. However, its population is also aging.
“In the US,
the baby boomers are starting to retire in massive numbers,” Meyer
wrote. “This will push the elder dependency ratio from 19 to 38
over the next 10 to 15 years. This is not as bad as Europe, but
still represents the same kind of trend.”
Meyer
observed: “Western civilization seems to have forgotten what every
primitive society understands: you need kids to have a healthy
society. Children are huge consumers. Then they grow up to become
taxpayers. That’s how a society works, but the postmodern secular
state seems to have forgotten that.”
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