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Thursday, January 25, 2007

 

Economic growth in Q4 seen lower


ECONOMIC growth last year may come in lower than expected, a National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) official said, citing the impact of a series of typhoons on the country’s farm sector, which accounts for a fifth of the domestic economy.

Dennis M. Arroyo, NEDA director for planning and policy, told reporters that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), which is the total value of goods and services produced locally, may have grown between 5.3 percent and 5.6 percent.

The government earlier announced that growth may come in at the low end of its forecast of between 5.5 and 6.1 percent.

Arroyo noted that the five typhoons that struck the country during the fourth quarter dampened growth.

The NEDA projected that agriculture may have expanded between 3.8 percent and 4 percent; industry, between 5.2 percent and 5.4 percent; and services, 6 percent to 6.3 percent.

For the fourth quarter GDP may have expanded by 5.1 percent to 5.9 percent, with the farm sector growing 1.3 to 2.1 percent; industry, 5.5 to 6.4 percent; and services, 6.4 to 7.3 percent.

“The main drivers for the economy were the manufacturing, transport and communication, trade, finance, real estate [and] private services,” Arroyo said.

On the demand side, personal consumption and exports drove the expansion, he said. The official GDP data will be released January 31.

In the first three quarters, the economy grew 5.4 percent. For the third quarter alone, GDP grew 4.8 percent owing to weak manufacturing and agriculture.

The third-quarter performance was lower than the revised second-quarter growth of 5.8 percent.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the third quarter growth was the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2001.
--Darwin G. Amojelar

  
 

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