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By Angelo S. Samonte, Reporter
MALACAÑANG will have to come up
with bright ideas on how to keep the government’s budget deficit
below ceiling, after recent estimates by its economic managers show
that the country would still suffer from a revenue shortfall even if
tax collection agencies manage to hit their targets in the second
half of the year.
A source from the Development and
Budget Coordinating Committee (DBCC), which sets the country’s
macroeconomic targets, said that a recent assessment made by the
interagency body showed that meeting collection targets in the
second semester won’t allow the government to attain its full-year
goal.
Citing the results of the
assessment, the source said the government can collect only P1.094
trillion this year, which is lower than the P1.118-trillion revenue
target.
The emerging P1.094-trillion
full-year collection estimate also includes nontax revenues, which
are expected to come in at P115.5 billion.
Under this scenario, the Bureau
of Internal Revenue (BIR), which accounts for two-thirds of
government revenues, is assumed to generate P746.10 billion, or much
lower than the P765.85-billion goal for the entire year.
The Bureau of Customs (BOC) is
expected to collect P223.24 billion, also much smaller than the
P228.20-billion target for the agency.
The estimated P1.094-trillion
collection, which also includes earnings from other government
offices, would comprise 14.8 percent of the country’s gross
domestic product (GDP) for the year, or lower than the 15.1-percent
ratio programmed for 2007. GDP measures the country’s economic
output, while the revenue-to-GDP ratio is a key fiscal measure
monitored by the country’s creditors.
The entire BIR collection will be
11.3 percent of GDP, slightly lower than 11.5-percent target ratio.
The BOC collection remains at 3.4
percent of GDP.
The source said the two
bureaus’ failure to meet their respective targets in the first
five months was the main factor for the bad collection picture for
the entire year.
The DBCC has come up with three
scenarios—best case, medium case and worst case—in assessing the
collection picture, with the best case projecting a collection
recovery for the second half and the worst case a continuing decline
month after month. The source said the assessment will be presented
before the President today. 
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