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THE Philippine economy is likely to grow at a faster
pace this year as the country’s composite leading economic
indicator (LEI) is picking up, the National Statistical Coordination
Board (NSCB) said.
Romulo Virola, NSCB
secretary-general, said the LEI moved up in the first quarter to
0.170 from 0.107 in the last quarter of 2006.
The LEI serves as a basis for
short-term forecasting of macroeconomic activity in the country. It
also involves the study of the behavior of indicators that
consistently move upward or downward before the actual expansion or
contraction of overall economic activity.
The NSCB explained that whenever
the LEI goes up the economy would grow.
Of the 11 indicators that make up
the indicator, four contributed positively during the period. These
were the stock price index, exchange rate, money supply and new
businesses.
Virola said that the negative
contributors were tourist arrivals, electric energy consumption,
hotel occupancy, wholesale price index, merchandise imports,
consumer price index and terms of trade.
The official growth figures for
the first quarter will be released by end-May.
Cielito F. Habito, head of the
Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development, earlier said
the economy will grow 5.8 percent in the first quarter.
For full year, it is seen to grow
between 5 percent and 5.6 percent owing to slower production because
of sluggish imports, persistent political conflict and a
wait-and-see investment stance during an election year, he said.
For this year, the government is
eyeing growth of between 6.1 percent and 6.7 percent.
Jose Salceda, the President’s
chief of staff, earlier said that a 7-percent growth this year is
possible through infrastructure spending.
Economic expansion would pick up
to 8 percent next year, and to 9 percent for 2009, he added.
--Darwin G. Amojelar
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