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Senatorial bets may think they hold the nation’s
fate in their palms but the real movers and shakers in the upcoming
midterm elections are the local kingpins—and they’re not about
to vote straight either for the administration or the opposition
coalitions.
The May 2007 polls is a
seller’s market.
Whether we’re talking
provincial, municipal or barangay leaders, or the ordinary voters,
the most common question remains, “What’s in it for us?”
It’s a question of nightmarish
proportions for administration and opposition leaders. With no
single dominant party, both coalitions are confronted with potential
local revolts. Neither Team Unity nor the Genuine Opposition wants
to risk alienating local supporters; leaders of these alliances know
what matter most to them may not weight much with grassroots
leaders.
No sweep
One thing is clear. There will be
no 12-0 victory.
Rep. Jose Carlos Lacson of Negros
Occidental is a staunch administration supporter and provincial
coordinator of the province with the third-largest number of
registered voters during the 2004 polls, after Metro Manila and
Bulacan. (See box, “Where the votes are.”)
“We cannot promise 100 percent
delivery,” Lacson admits in an interview with The Manila Times.
“We have to be practical, you know and there are certain factors
people will consider, so you can’t expect 100 percent support.”
But Lacson says the province will
“go bat for the President.”
“We want a continuation of her
program. With the problems she faced in the Senate, we need to put
in our own people,” Lacson notes.
Negros Occidental is the home
province of the President’s husband, Jose Miguel Arroyo. Of the
administration’s Visayan bailiwicks, it was in this province that
President Arroyo lost to the late action star, Fernando Poe Jr. The
loss created a rift between the First Family and provincial
political leaders but that has since been healed. The province also
voted for deposed President Joseph Estrada.
The votes for Poe, however, did
not translate to opposition senators and local leaders.
Public relations practitioner and
elections veteran Tony Baranda notes that the administration made a
wise move in adopting opposition-identified candidates under a “no
strings attached” basis.
“At the least, it guaranteed
President Arroyo some administration candidates in the magic
circle,” Baranda tells The Manila Times.
“Joker [Arroyo], Ralph Recto,
Tito [Vicente Sotto 3rd] and [Edgardo] Angara will win,” Baranda
forecasts. “Maybe, Mike Defensor.”
Former congressman and agrarian
reform secretary, Butch Abad, of the Liberal Party-Drilon wing,
grants the administration at least four seats, “at best, six.”
Opposition congressman, Rolex
Suplico of Iloilo, shares Abad’s view.
Pragmatic choices
President Arroyo is, in a way,
right to claim that this mid-term polls are not a contest between
her and deposed President Joseph Estrada.
Butch Abad says there’s no
denying the “negative endorsement factor” represented by Mrs.
Arroyo. He likes the situation to the US mid-term elections,
“where Bush’s face was seen more on the opposition posters than
on those of his party.”
However, Abad and Baranda agree
that when it comes to decision-making by folk responsible for the
“command votes,” local leaders put a premium on personal
relationships and a track record for honoring commitments in
choosing which individual senatorial candidates they will to
support.
Individual is a key word.
So is “winnability.”
National elections do reflect
survey results of the respected Social Weather Stations (SWS) and
Pulse Asia, note Baranda, Abad and Suplico.
“People may follow the leader
for local positions,” says Abad, “but when it comes to national
elections, they feel more free.”
As for local leaders, Abad says,
“they’re very pragmatic, they know that after elections they
will have to approach congressmen and senators for help.”
“They’re keen observers of
politics,” Abad adds. “They know it is not wise to vote straight
because senators will see how they fared in a particular place.”
That is why results of the
senatorial poll, he notes, reflects surveys.
“You see a change only in the
last three and that is often due to suspicious factors,” he adds.
‘Retail’ counts
Suplico is the lone opposition
congressman in the Visayas.
He dismisses the notion of
campaigning for a straight Genuine Opposition ticket.
Suplico, a Nacionalista Party
member, identifies his GO bets: Sen. Panfilo Lacson, Senate
President and NP chief Manny Villar, fellow NP member Rep. Alan
Peter Cayetano, House Minority Leader Francis “Chiz” Escudero of
the Nationalist People’s Coalition and Aquilino “Koko”
Pimentel 3rd, his law classmate at the University of the
Philippines.
Pimentel will need all the help
he can get from kin and friends. Says one of his campaign
consultants of his party, the Partido Demokratikong Pilipino (PDP):
“At least 3,000 members nationwide but around 1,000 are active. No
longer a major force but has a lot of clout in Metro Manila,
opposition country. Famous members are Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay
and his dad, Senator Pimentel.”
There are four administration
congressmen in Iloilo province and, Suplico notes, “they are not
supporting straight Team Unity.”
Suplico says he will actively
campaign for administration Rep. Prospero Pichay.
Pichay is currently at the tail
end of surveys.
“But watch out as elections
draw near,” says Suplico. “You don’t realize how many local
officials he’s helped nationwide.”
Likening politics to commerce,
Suplico says Pichay is “very, very strong in retail.”
“On a person to person basis,
he’s up there,” notes Suplico. “When the time comes to make
hard choices, a lot of local officials will remember him.”
An opposition leader, who
requested anonymity, notes that Defensor “has very good
interpersonal skills.”
“He’s got a bad press because
he’s stuck his neck out so many times for the President,” the
opposition source says, “but Mike has done many people favors,
often without asking anything in return.”
Many of the favors, he notes, are
“small, on the personal scale, sometimes not involving money.”
These are things local officials remember and Defensor, he adds, is
known for his “impeccable manners” in dealing with older
grassroots leaders.
Abad similarly situates his
fellow LP members, Sen. Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan (independent)
and Rep. Benigno Aquino 3rd (GO).
“Noynoy not difficult to sell
because a lot of locals were OICs during Cory [former President
Corazon Aquino’s term] and they still remember that,” he says.
Pangilinan also helped a lot of
Kiko madaming tinulungan. He only bolted a few years back and when
he was in the administration helped a lot.
A Villar campaign staff says the
modest size of the NP is deliberate.
“We prefer quality over
quantity,” he notes, citing Bohol, Negros and Iloilo as major
bailiwicks outside of Metro Manila.
Sure bets?
At least three Lakas officials in
Negros Occidental, who asked not to be named, confirmed they would
be campaigning for Villar.
The same three powerful
officials—and three others—told The Times, they were also
supporting Escudero. NPC in Negros is pro-administration and in a
coalition with Lakas. There is no way, the officials note, that
their members would abandon “a sure winner.”
Baranda says no one should be
surprised by shifting loyalties.
“Turncoatism has been
institutionalized so people will go for whoever they think benefit
their goals,” he points out.
“Everyone knows, it will be
very hard to cheat the really popular ones, so they won’t even
try. Better to offer help and be one of victory’s fathers,” says
Baranda.
Local officials allied with the
opposition will carry Arroyo and Recto despite complaints of
national GO officials.
Machinery
Machinery is not the magic
talisman as claimed by some administration stalwarts. Neither can it
be dismissed.
Abad says machinery is important
for two things.
“It’s for making sure the
sample ballots of local officials carry your name,” he points out.
This is crucial because in the provinces, the ballot fill up rate
for national positions is only four or five names; it goes up with
seven or eight in metropolitan centers.
Even if local officials cheer and
clap onstage for specific slates, the ballots that flood households
on the eve of voting—and on voting day itself—will carry
different names.
But machinery is also important
to ensure “they don’t steal your votes,” Abad admits.
Baranda qualifies the importance
of machinery.
“Recent Philippine history
shows that machinery is often an empty threat,” he says.
Baranda cites former President
Fidel V. Ramos with his Lakas juggernaut, which reeled in the face
of Miriam Santiago’s popularity.
“In a sense, the machinery
didn’t deliver,” Baranda notes. “The same with [Speaker] Jose
de Venecia and Estrada; where was the machinery? KBL vs. Cory?”
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