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By Tony Lopez
It is now abundantly clear the
Genuine Opposition (GO) will not score a 12-0 victory against the
administration’s Team Unity (TU) in the senatorial fight.
My fearless forecast is that the
GO will grab at best, only seven senatorial seats against TU’s
five. And if GO is not careful, the race might end up 6-6, with
neither side being able to claim a resounding victory. But as in
boxing where a draw means the defending champion retains his crown
and therefore is the winner, 6-6 means a victory for Gloria
Macapagal-Arroyo.
If popular sentiment were
reckoned with, the GO should get at least 10 senators. Public
opinion, however, is often ignored during the actual voting, the
counting, and the canvassing. A lot of miracles happen during this
three-step process. It is a question of machine vs. popularity. And
machine usually wins.
In the 2004 presidential
elections, Fernando Poe Jr. whittled down a 15 million votes
advantage in January so that by election day of May, the fight was a
virtual tie. Naturally, the incumbent, Arroyo, won, by 1.1 million
votes.
There are signs the GO campaign
has stumbled. Only 10,000 showed up at the supposedly big kickoff
rally at Plaza Miranda two Saturdays ago, less than a tenth of the
expected crowd. The “big” rallies in Iloilo and Antique were
canceled. This shows lack of machinery, lack of funding and lack of
ground troops.
The rallies to watch out for are
Bicol (especially Albay and Camarines Sur, both provinces in the
hands of close Arroyo allies), Ilocandia, Cebu, Davao, Cagayan de
Oro and even General Santos. Opposition leaders in these places are
“brand names,” so to speak. If the crowds are small, then the GO
can kiss its dreams of a clean sweep goodbye. Iloilo was supposed to
be under a brand name oppositionist, Senate President Frank Drilon,
and all he could produce was no more than 100 spectators and
nebulous security jitters.
The President needs nine senators
to escape conviction in an impeachment trial. She already has eight
among the incumbent senators—Juan Ponce Enrile, Juan Flavier,
Miriam Defensor Santiago, Dick Gordon, Mar Roxas, Bong Revilla,
Ramon Magsaysay, and Lito Lapid, who returns to the Senate if he
loses the Makati mayoralty race.
Even if you reckon half of these
eight are of doubtful loyalty (which is unlikely), Mrs. Arroyo will
still have four incumbent senators. Plus the six winners of May
2007, she will have at least 10. An impeachment conviction requires
a two-thirds vote or 16 senators.
The more important fight is the
congressional districts. There will be 265 congressmen in the next
Congress because the number of party-list congressmen will increase.
So the magic number to initiate
impeachment is 88, not 78 as in the present Congress. This makes it
even more difficult for the opposition to mount an impeachment
initiative.
Gloria already controls most of
the incumbent congressmen. This year, 62 congressmen are third-termers,
unable to run again. Of the 62, three joined the Cabinet—Rolando
Andaya (Budget), Jesli Lapus (Education) and Joey Salceda
(Presidential Chief of Staff). Of the remaining 59 graduating
solons, 57 are pro-administration. They are expected to be succeeded
by pro-administration replacements who most likely will be their
relatives, if not blood brothers.
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