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Political polls
Conclusion
Candidate Luis Chavit Singson
Answer to Question 1: “Yes [I
trust SWS and Pulse Asia survey results]. But we have to take into
account that surveys are taken among 1,200 respondents and the real
population of voters is 40 million. We have seen time and again in
the previous elections that those who fail in previous surveys can
still get elected.”
Answer to Question 2. “Yes [I
believe SWS and Pulse Asia uses the normal scientific standards.]
But there is a growing perception that these standards can be
tailor-fitted to suit certain interests.”
Answer to Question 3. “Yes [I
think you can pay SWS and Pulse Asia to conduct a survey for you so
you can be guided by the results.] This is because both SWS and
Pulse Asia are professional survey companies and they can be
commissioned for a fee to do opinion surveys.”
Answer to Question 4. “No [I
don’t think SWS and Pulse can be paid to manipulate the results of
a political poll in favor of a candidate or a party.] I believe that
SWS and Pulse Asia guard their reputation very well and they should
not do anything that will harm their reputation as survey
organizations.”
Answer to Question 5. “Yes, I
agree that political survey results should not be published during
the two weeks preceding an election. Such survey results tend to
serve like political advertisements for the top 12. They also
condition the minds of voters. Paano na lang yong wala sa top 12?
Hindi pa nga nag-eleksyon pero parang sinabi na rin natin sa mga
botante na wala na silang pagasa at wag na natin silang iboto [What
happens to those not in the top 12? The elections have not yet been
held but (publishing the survey) would be tantamount to telling the
voters that these (survey nonwinners) have no hope of winning and so
we should not vote for them].”
Answer to Question 6. “No, I
don’t like exit polls. They only add to the confusion.”
Answer to Question 7. Make a
brief comment on surveys.
“Political polling in the
Philippines has not reached the sophistication and accuracy that you
see in the United States, and even then these polls do not reflect a
very accurate picture of how things really are, especially when you
factor in the amount of time that it takes to conduct each surveys.
By the time they come out with the results, a lot of things may have
changed already.
Answers of Genuine
Opposition bets
Here are some the responses and
reactions as storified by Times Reporter Francis Earl Cueto:
Sen. Francis “Kiko”
Pangilinan
I am humbled by the trust in me.
I hope the survey results giving me high points translate into votes
that will allow me the privilege and honor of serving our country
once again. [On confidence and trust in SWS and Pulse Asia] Yes. But
the “boxing bout” isn’t over yet and we still need to work
hard and be on the lookout. A lot of things can still happen. This
is why the results of the survey serve as an inspiration so that we
will intensify our campaign for a new system of politics and a
leadership that is principled and committed.
Sen. Panfilo Lacson
Yes, I trust SWS and Pulse Asia.
The latest survey results show us something—that the anti-Arroyo
sentiment remains strong because the survey shows a conglomeration
of Genuine Opposition candidates winning compared to just three Team
Unity candidates. We’re just one month into the campaign period
and we can make the necessary adjustments. I’m still pretty low in
the Visayas region and we intend to do something about it.
Sorsogon Rep. Francis
“Chiz” Escudero
Yes, I trust SWS and Pulse Asia.
Ang survey ay snapshot lamang ng
opinion at sample ng opinion ng ating mga kababaya. Mahirap pong
sabihin na yun na ang resulta ng eleksyon dahil kung survey na ang
basehan e di hwag na tayong mag-eleksion at kung sino ang panalo sa
survey ay siya na ang mauupo …Eleksyon pa rin ang batayan sa
pagka-panalo… May 14 eleksion pa rin at kung ano ang resulta ng
bilangan ng mga boto yun pa rin ang basehan ng pagka-panalo.
(A survey is only a snapshot of
public opinion and a sample of the opinions of our fellow citizens.
It’s wrong to say that the survey result is the election result
because if surveys will be the bases then let’s not have an
election, let’s just have a survey and whoever wins in the survey
should be given the position… No, the election still determines
who wins…the May 14 election is still it. And the outcome of the
counting of the votes is the bases of who the winner is.)
Sonia Roco
No, I’m not bothered (that my
survey ratings are low) because that’s why we have the campaign
season allowing me to go around and let people know that I’m
running, to let them know what the qualifications are and so I think
if this is one way that you’re helping me, thank you.
And I believe that if also they
remember Raul Roco, and what he has done for women, for the youths,
and his record as a public servant, and if that’s the mission he
has done and I’m going to continue it, I think that our voters
will be more than happy to have somebody like me, Inang Guro, in the
Senate who will be mother and teacher. I mean all the way.
I don’t think I really live
under the shadow of my husband. In fact, what they’ve been saying
is that I am an accomplished woman myself, and as I said earlier,
may sarili akong kakayahan (I have my own capabilities and skills).
I don’t brag about it, and I don’t hit the papers about it, but
I do my share in serving this county quietly, without fanfare, and
so shadows, maybe shadows. I don’t think there are shadows that,
because if you really are really partners, then you don’t have
shadows. That light hits you both, and the shadow is your shadow.
Former senator Loren Legarda
I’m number one in all surveys,
I say that not to be immodest, but as a matter of fact. Ibon, Pulse
Asia, SWS [Social Weather Stations], they all say that I’m a
runaway winner. But why am [I] working so hard? Why am I campaigning
like it was my first time? Because it has to be so overwhelming that
even if they cheat me, they can’t rob me of victory. Why? Because
I’m obsessed with victory? No. Because I just have to prove the
point. But first to be able serve, you have to win. And that you can
win without using guns, goons and gold, just by reaching out to your
constituents—through media such as these, that we’re doing now.
Former senator John Osmeña
We need to carefully study and be
more alert as it is a mindset that the government is placing for the
dag-dag bawas.
Nograles wants guidelines set
Meanwhile, in the House of
Representatives, the majority leadership spoke about “the
necessity to set certain guidelines or perhaps establish an
independent regulatory body for the conduct of election-related
surveys which have become a potent propaganda and trending tool for
some politicians and political groups.”
House Majority Leader Prospero
Nograles acknowledged that political surveys are a good reference
for politicians in identifying their strengths and weaknesses. But
lamented it is often misused for mere “propaganda purposes” and
therefore can undermine the integrity of the electoral process
itself.
“There’s nothing wrong with
these surveys but there should be transparency on how the surveys
are conducted, who commissioned it, the line of questioning used,
the demographics and other circumstances that are needed for us to
make a valid analysis of the true intentions of these surveys,”
Nograles explained.
Nograles, who heads the House
Committee on Rules, observed that he has yet to see a single
political survey that has accurately predicted the outcome of an
election.
Worse, the House majority leader
said, the results are often used to condition the minds of the
electorate as if this would be the real outcome of the elections.
“In the past, surveys are even
used to question the outcome of our elections thereby undermining
the credibility and the integrity of our electoral process. Surveys
are even used, at least for propaganda purposes, as a basis to claim
election fraud,” Nograles pointed out.
“If we allow these polling
firms to operate without any reasonable guideline and regulation,
political interest groups and moneyed politicians can use these
polling agencies to discredit and undermine our electoral
institutions particularly the Commission on Elections,” he added.
Nograles lamented the conduct of
surveys nowadays, especially during election season, has been
trivialized and abused.
Surveys, as far as Nograles is
concerned, have become a commodity where only moneyed politicians
can commission their own surveys not to use it as a reference for
their election bid but to condition the mind of the electorate.
“At the end of the day, those
who do not have the money to commission such surveys are left
without anything to defend themselves except to pray that the
surveys were wrong.”
Nograles stressed that surveys
should not jump the gun on the outcome of the election itself.
Otherwise, “if the surveys will only be used as basis on who will
win the elections, then we should no longer have elections, let’s
just do surveys.”
 --Rene
Q. Bas, Efren Danao, Francis Earl Cueto
and Maricel V. Cruz
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