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Friday, September 07, 2007

 

Analysis

Divided Iraq awaits crucial US report

By Jay Deshmukh and Sabah Jerges

BAGHDAD: Iraqis, bitterly divided along sectarian lines and reeling from a brutal insurgency, are gloomily awaiting a US report that could signal an exit strategy for American troops from their war-torn country.

Political leaders are bracing themselves for a negative assessment of their efforts to forge national unity in the nation of 27 million Shiite, Sunnis and Kurds torn by sectarian violence that has killed tens of thousands of Iraqis.

General David Petraeus, head of US-led forces in Iraq, and Ambassador Ryan Crocker are due to give a key testimony to the US Congress on Monday, ahead of a White House report on political and military progress in Iraq due by September 15.

But Iraqi leaders are keenly aware that they are unlikely to be depicted in glowing terms.

An independent US official auditor on Tuesday branded Iraq’s government “dysfunctional” in a report that did not make appetizing reading for Iraqi leaders.

“The Iraqi government met three, partially met four and did not meet 11 of its 18 benchmarks,” the Government Accountability Office said in its report.

“Overall, key legislation has not been passed, violence remains high, and it is unclear whether the Iraqi government will spend $10 billion in reconstruction funds,” the report said.

Crocker last month hinted at how the cards are likely to fall, when he candidly described political progress in Iraq as “extremely disappointing.”

Some Iraqi leaders are hoping the Petraeus and Crocker judgments will at least influence the White House as well as US lawmakers into giving more time to embattled Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to continue the efforts he began 14 months ago to bridge the deep distrust between Shiite and Sunni communities.

“I know the report will point out the negatives of the government, but I hope it will consider that reconciliation is a complicated process and needs time,” said Hamid Muala al-Saedi, MP from the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council, a powerful Shiite party in Maliki’s ruling coalition government.

Saedi said Maliki needed more “time and space” to bridge the mutual distrust within the leaders that can then percolate down to the communities at large.

“We do not have a thermometer to measure how much progress has been made,” he said.

“But there is progress as we are discussing the reconciliation law and other such issues. Nobody seems to notice them,” Saedi said, adding the White House should even consider delaying the release of its report.

Maliki and other top leaders last month pledged to ease restrictions on members of toppled dictator Saddam Hus­sein’s former Baath party on filling government and military posts, in a move to boost the reconciliation process.

They have also put a key law on dividing up the spoils from Iraq’s vast and lucrative oil reserves on their agenda for a parliament session which began on Tuesday.

The United States says the oil law is a key indicator of national reconciliation.

But the country’s former elite Sunni Arabs have lost faith in Maliki’s leadership.

“The government has failed on all sides. It should resign. It needs to get out so that people can breathe,” said Omar Abdul Sattar, a lawmaker from the National Concord Front, the main Sunni Arab bloc in the assembly.

Blaming Maliki for much of the failures besetting the country, Sattar said it was not a question of how much time was required to bring about reconciliation but of “intentions.”

“To do good deeds, you do not need time, you need good intentions. In fact respect for Maliki would rise if he quits and allows a new government to be formed,” Sattar told AFP.

“This is what Iraqis want. We do not want to listen to Crocker and Petraeus. We would rather hear what Iraqis have to say.”

Calls by US legislators last month for Maliki to be replaced have subsided however and US President George W. Bush publicly endorsed the premier during a surprise visit to Iraq on Monday.

“My message to Maliki is you’ve got a lot of work to do and whatever decision is made in Washington, D.C., is all aimed at helping you achieve what is necessary to get the work done,” Bush told reporters.

Sattar’s colleague in the Sunni bloc, Salim Abdullah, said that while Bush had thrown his weight behind Maliki in public, the support has come with conditions.

“This was evident when Bush asked [Maliki] about the reasons for the Front’s withdrawal and the possibilities of meeting its demand,” he said, referring to the bloc’s August boycott of Maliki’s cabinet.

On the military front—the other key plank of the much-awaited report—Bush during his flying visit to Iraq signaled a possible cut in troops citing recent security gains in the province of Anbar, a hotbed of anti-American insurgency.

Since Bush made his comments, the refrain has been picked up by top US generals, including Petraeus himself as well as his second in command, Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno.

According to Odierno, the lead up to the holy month of Ramadan has been relatively peaceful and if the trend continues during the fasting period, it would serve as “a big indicator” for a possible reduction in forces.
--AFP

   
 

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