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Sunday, April 06, 2008

 

ANALYSIS

Rice crisis ‘imminent’ a long time ago

By Conrad M. Cariño, Senior Desk Editor

It is quite ironic that the Philippines, with its Philippine Rice Research Institute (PhilRice) and host to the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), has never been rice self-sufficient for the most part of the last 20 years.

While some argue that the Philippines is not blessed like Thailand, India, Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia and Bangladesh, with plains and deltas more highly suitable for rice farming, local experts believe the country could still attain rice self-sufficiency, making imports unnecessary.

In fact, the country even exported rice when then-President Ferdinand Marcos implemented the highly successful “Masagana 99” program. The government carried it out even when a rice crisis was not imminent.

Some of the problems causing our low rice production even have immediate solutions on hand. And many causes of low rice production could have been avoided if the government had foreseen the present crunch in world rice supply.

Food Minister Tanchangco

One of those who foresaw today’s world rice supply problem is Jesus Tanchangco, the former Food Minister of Marcos. More than a year ago, Tanchangco was already making statements that the country could not entirely rely on imported rice to solve domestic production shortages.

“Taking the world supply of rice, for example, statistics show that of the total quantity of rice produced worldwide, less than 3 percent is being traded,” he said.

The former food minister said that a slight decrease in worldwide rice production, as low as 5 percent, would affect many rice-producing countries, including those that import the grain.

Many factors can affect worldwide rice production. IRRI President Robert Zeigler, in an interview with Agence France-Presse, cited “adverse weather in Bangladesh, pests and disease in Vietnam, and political problems in Myanmar” as factors that will make a dent on worldwide rice supply.

The Climate Change Group of IRRI also discovered that a drop of 1 degree centigrade in climate temperatures can result in a 10-percent drop in rice yields.

Before the country signed a deal to buy large quantities of rice from Vietnam, Sen. Mar Roxas had warned that “Thailand, which used to sell rice to the Philippines, could not commit to sell rice. Vietnam, for its part, said it could be able to sell only one-half of the total metric tons the Philippines used to buy.”

The Philippines-Vietnam agreement in March for the supply of 1.5 million MT of the grains has a clause stating “Vietnamese government agrees to sell, unless under circumstances of natural disaster and harvest loss,” which makes it possible for Vietnam to refuse to deliver rice to us.

For this year, the Philippines will import up to two million metric tons of rice, even if rice harvests this year reach over 16 million MT.

Avoiding imports

Rice importations in this crisis could have been avoided had the government invested more in the agriculture sector than spending the money on rice imports.

Palawan’s Rep. Abraham Mitra last year suggested that the billions of pesos used to import rice should be allocated to increase the domestic production.

He even pointed out that a fraction of the import funds can be used to improve post-harvest facilities.

Post-harvest losses in rice hovers around 14 to 25 percent. This means that if post-harvest losses are addressed, there may be no need to import rice, because according to the Department of Agriculture, the country today is 90-percent self-sufficient in rice.

Felino Garcia Jr., a farmer leader in Nueva Vizcaya, even said the government subsidy to propagate high-yielding hybrid rice seeds is miniscule compared to the billions of pesos spent for rice imports.

At present, the government shoulders half of the cost of hybrid seeds bought by farmers through the GMA (Ginintuang Masaganang Ani) Rice Program.

Hybrid seeds can improve yields by about 30 percent. There are even hybrid rice farmers who report palay (unhusked rice) yields of above 10 MT per hectare per cropping on irrigated rice fields, which is very high compared to the 3.49 MT national average, also for irrigated lands.

Flawed policies

Largely to blame for today’s rice crisis is the flawed policy of past administrations not to spend heavily on agriculture to make the country self-sufficient.

Notably, when Marcos fled the country in 1986, the government’s buffer stocks for rice was 900,000 MT, making importations unnecessary. It was only in 1973, during the Marcos regime, that rice had to be imported because typhoons that hit Central Luzon in 1972 destroyed much of the expected harvest.

Since 1988, the country was only rice-self sufficient for a short break—when Roberto Sebastian was Agriculture secretary.

Since then, the country has been importing rice. What could have possibly gone wrong?

Arsenio Balisacan, a respected figure in academe and agriculture circles who heads the Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research and Agriculture (SEARCA), believes that the government’s investment in the agriculture sector is inappropriately low.

“The country’s investments in agricultural research and related activities have remained at a low level of 0.1 percent of the country’s Gross Value Added [GVA] in agriculture over the past 10 years. This is far below the 1-percent level recommended for developing countries and very much lower than the 2 to 3 percent observed in many countries,” Balisacan said in a paper about the state of Philippine agriculture.

Balisacan said that China’s investment in agriculture in the mid-2000s was 0.8 percent of GVA, which explains why that country is now an agricultural production powerhouse.

Spending per farmer

In an interview with The Manila Times, an official of the Agriculture department said the country spends only P1,000 per farmer, which is low compared to the P3,000 to P4,000 per farmer spent by countries like Thailand, Japan and other developed countries.

Likewise, much has to be done to develop agriculture infrastructure, for example, in irrigation. Data from the National Irrigation Administration show that in 2006, 705,000 hectares were served by national irrigation systems out of the 3.12 million hectares of irrigable lands, which are mostly rice. If there is any consolation, the total area served by irrigation systems as of 2006 is 1.428 million hectares, because of the contribution of communal systems (549,000 hectares) and private irrigation (174,000 hectares).

In contrast, the Marcos administration under the Masagana 99 attained a target of 1.6 million hectares of farms for irrigation, of which 1.3 million hectares were covered by national systems. The rest was served by communal irrigation systems.
(Continued tomorrow) 

   
 

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