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Saturday, April 12, 2008

 

ANALYSIS

Two crucial elections

 
Economic reform to gain momentum in S. Korea

SEOUL: The administration of South Korean President Lee Myung-bak is expected to accelerate economic reforms after the ruling Grand National Party (GNP) won a majority in the 299-seat parliament.

According to the National Election Commission, the conservative GNP won 153 seats in the National Assembly while the major opposition United Democratic Party (UDP) only achieved 81 seats in Wednesday’s parliamentary elections nationwide. It was the first time that the conservative party reclaims majority in the parliament since 1998, paving the way for the president to havea smooth-running of his administration.

With the majority in parliament, the ruling party will have fewer obstacles in legislating, while providing strong support in parliament for the president and his reform agenda.

Local analysts predicted that Lee Myung-bak will accelerate his reforms to spur economic growth, including corporate deregulation, privatization of state-owned companies and tax cuts, on the back of a strong ruling party.

The stalled free trade agreement between South Korea and the United States is also a priority for Lee to push ahead. The South Korean and U.S. governments reached a draft FTA last year, but the FTA has failed to get approval in both parliaments due to strong oppositions. With the majority in the incoming Assembly, the GNP, which has kept on supporting the adoption of South Korea-U.S. FTA, is expected to give a quick ratification of the pact.

According to a survey conducted by the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) with 600 South Korean enterprises on Thursday, 50.2 percent of the respondents said the most urgent task for the government is to prompt realization of deregulation agenda.

The business community on the whole welcomed the GNP’s victory in elections as they believe it will help to push ahead President Lee’s business-friendly economic policy.

“Boosting the economy is the core mission of the new government, and the key to realize this is regulatory reforms,” said KCCI Vice Chairman Kim Sang-yeol to local press.

Lee Myung-bak pledged in the presidential election campaign last year that he will lead the country to achieve a 7-percent economic growth every year, to raise South Koreans’ annual per capita income to $40,000 within 10 years and make South Korea’s rank into the biggest seven economies in the world.

However, the latest inflation in South Korea and rising prices of energy and raw materials in the world market add worries that the South Korean economy might see a slowdown amid a worldwide recession.

How to keep a balance between the stimulus policy and measures against inflation will be a challenge to Lee and his administration.
-- Xinhua

Nepal endorses peace, but tough challenges seen ahead
By Subel Bhandari

KATHMANDU: Crucial polls in Nepal that had been plagued by pre-election violence have passed off smoothly, but analysts warn it is too early to declare peace has truly broken out in the Himalayan nation.

The election Thursday saw a strong turnout, a sign that voters wanted to give their resounding backing to efforts to turn the page on a decade-long Maoist revolt.

It was also a major achievement for the Maoists: in the run-up to the polls they were under fire for bullying voters, but Nepal’s polling day passed off without a single report of violent conduct.

It was, as the United Nations put it, a display of “overwhelming enthusiasm” for a new era.

When the full results emerge over the coming weeks, Nepal will have a new 601-seat assembly that will tear up the country’s past status as a Hindu monarchy and rewrite a new constitution from scratch.

But analysts say this process—from the counting of ballots to the eventual expected sacking of unpopular King Gyanendra—will be no easy ride for a country that has a history of political instability.

“Holding the constituent assembly election was a big challenge, but the ones ahead are bigger,” cautioned Sudheer Sharma, editor of the weekly news magazine Nepal.

The key, he said, was for Nepal’s two biggest mainstream parties and the Maoists—the once bitter foes who signed a peace pact in 2006—to see through their often awkward marriage of convenience.

“All the parties have their own road maps. If the harmony between the big three parties breaks, it will be a huge hurdle,” Sharma said, referring to the Nepali Congress, the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist).

Strains could start to show shortly after the votes have been counted, said Rhoderick Chalmers, Nepal’s country director for the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.

“The very first challenge will be to get to the end of the counting process and have the major parties accept the results,” said Chalmers.

This will be toughest for the Maoists, who have to reconcile rival factions within the party—those ready for real politic and those still married to the revolutionary dogma that fuelled their “people’s war.”

If that dichotomy is resolved, the new Constituent Assembly will then have to grapple with what to do with the king.

“It is not really specified what is meant by ‘implementing’ a republic. Some individuals or small parties might try to shift the goalposts and reopen the question of whether the monarchy should be abolished,” Chalmers said.

The king, who ascended to the throne in 2001 after much-loved former King Birendra and most of his family were massacred by a drunk-and-drugged crown prince, has become widely unpopular.

But he can still count on support from sections of the army and Hindu fundamentalists who see him as an incarnation of a Hindu god.

Even if he does get the boot, some prominent politicians say keeping some kind of symbolic monarch would be a useful way of preserving the neutrality of Nepal—a country sandwiched between competing Asian giants India and China.

The Maoists, on the other hand, are rabidly anti-royal and see their leader Prachanda—whose nom de guerre means “the fierce one”—as presidential material.

Political analyst and author Khagendra Sangraula agreed that getting the new assembly to work together would be a difficult task.

“They come from such diverse backgrounds, it will be extremely hard for the 601-members to agree,” he told AFP.

However, managing to make it through Thursday’s polls in the first place is a solid step forward for Nepal—a country still reeling from a war that left over 13,000 dead, and still ranked as one of the poorest places on Earth.

“All these problems are not going to be solved in a day,” Sangraula said. “But the process to solving them has been started with the constituent assembly election.”
-- AFP

   
 

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